So Arsenal finally sealed the deal. Now, can they do it again?
Two years ago, we predicted the Gunners would win the Premier League title. Turns out, we were a year early. The North London side ended a frustrating 22-year drought last year, winning its first title since the squad known as The Invincibles finished undefeated in 2004.
In so doing, Arsenal snapped not only a generational gap of titles, but a three-year streak of second-place finishes to either Manchester City or Liverpool. With most of their league-championship team back and with a title belt around their figurative waists, the Gunners are +130 at BetMGM to repeat.
It’s not surprising. Not only are the Gunners locked and loaded, but every other team in the Premier League’s Big Six (Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur) either has a new manager or a manager who hasn’t coached a full year yet. Only Arsenal’s Mikael Arteta returns as a settled skipper.
That’s one of the endless storylines surrounding the world’s most popular league, which begins its nine-plus-month season Friday with the defending champion Gunners playing host to newly promoted Coventry. Newcastle welcomes Liverpool Sunday morning in one of the more intriguing matches of the opening week.
With all those endless storylines come a wealth of wagers. Here, we explore a few ways to get money down before the first ball is kicked on Premier League futures that offer the value-meets-opportunity we chase.
Hull City to Finish Bottom of the Table (+120 at Caesars)
We’ll start with one of the easiest bets on the table, because you’re getting plus-money on the consensus worst team in the Premier League and easily the worst of the three teams promoted from the Championship. Hull City is minus-500 to be relegated, so there is far more value in picking them to finish dead-last.
Why? Hull has no offense. Yes, the Tigers finished sixth—clinching the last playoff spot on the final day of the season—with a plus-four goal differential (eighth in the 24-team Championship). But their expected goal difference (xG) was minus-19: the second worst in the league. They’re a statistical freak show: the first team in the expected goals era to be promoted from the Championship with a negative xG differential.
So Hull can hang tough on defense, right? Well, no. The Tigers gave up the second-most expected goals and third-most shots in the league last year. To recap, Hull can’t score, and they can’t stop anyone else from scoring.
Don’t get too comfortable here, Hull fans. And speaking of promoted teams. …
Coventry City to be Top Promoted Team (+150)
Every book has Ipswich as a slight favorite to either: A. avoid relegation, or B. finish higher in the table. We beg to differ.
Coventry earned its first trip to the Premier League in 26 years in splashy fashion. They finished top of the Championship table—the hardest league in the world to win—by 11 points over fellow promoted side Ipswich. It wasn’t hard to see why; Coventry allowed the fewest goals in the Championship: 45 in 46 matches. They notched 18 shutouts and conceded only one goal in 18 others.
Offensively, Chelsea legend Frank Lampard’s side put up 97 goals—15 better than No. 2 Southampton. U.S. international Haji Wright accounted for 17 of those, good for third in the league. There is a caution here with Wright, who is out indefinitely with a quad injury. Nevertheless, the Sky Blues took their time getting back to the Premier League, but they’re going to make the most of it while they’re here.
Most Head-to-Head Points: Brentford Over Bournemouth (+110 at Caesars)
For another contrarian play, look toward Bournemouth rather than Brentford after their extraordinary sixth-place finish last season. Much of this success stems from manager Andoni Iraola, who has steadily steered the Cherries upward from 12th to ninth and finally to sixth across his three seasons.
Now, Iraola took his talents to Liverpool—just in time for the Cherries to dive into Europa League play. That means Thursday games in places like Turkey, Romania and Finland, followed by Sunday games back in the Prem—albeit with a roster largely intact.
But we’re not sleeping on Brentford, which missed out on a Europa League spot last year by a single point and missed out on a Conference League spot to Brighton by goal differential. The Bees return 22-goal scorer Igor Thiago (12-1 to win the Golden Boot, if you’re interested) and forward running mate Kevin Schade to a squad fortified by midfielder Mamadou Sangare (Lens), center back Jannik Schuster (Salzburg) and forward Callum Wilson (West Ham).
You’re looking at one of the best Brentford teams in club history, one that put the highest percentage of shots on target in the Prem last year (36.3 percent), had the highest xG per shot attempt (0.20) and attempted the highest percentage of shots in the box (75.6 percent).
And you’re looking at one of the Prem’s sleeper teams. They’re not playing in Europe this year, but expect that oversight to get rectified in 2027-28.
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