Constructing your Kentucky Derby tickets requires not only creativity, but luck. It requires not only science, but history. Knowledge is always good, but again, this being an inexact science, it’s not always a guarantee.
For example, the last two years, which kicked dirt in the eyes of the heretofore concept that since the points era began in 2013, closers need not apply to the Churchill Downs winner’s circle. Before the 80-1 freak show known as Rich Strike stole the Derby in the last 50 yards, only two closers: Orb (2013) and Country House (2019*) wore roses on Derby Day. And Country House wears that asterisk courtesy of his backing into the victory due to Maximum Security’s disqualification for interference.
But the last two years flipped the conventional wisdom that only pace-setters, pressers and stalkers could win America’s most famous race on its tail. This year, one of the presumed favorites, Sierra Leone, is a closer. Can he make it three closers in three years?
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Favorites or Also-Rans?
Then, there’s the Derby favorites, who haven’t been favored with recent Derby success. Triple Crown winner Justify in 2018 was the last favorite to win the Derby. Since then, favorites such as Tiz the Law, Essential Quality, Epicenter and Tapit Trice grabbed the money, but couldn’t grab the glory.
This year, Fierceness figures to be the betting favorite. Can he break the streak of unfavored favorites?
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Our Favorite Favorites
In ascending order, here are three horses we like somewhere on your tickets.
Stronghold: Make no mistake. The Santa Anita and Sunland derby winner needs a trampoline-like jump in his speed figures to be a win factor here. His 89 career-best Beyer Speed Figure impresses exactly nobody. But you don’t win one of the premier Derby preps—the aforementioned Santa Anita Derby—without talent. Nor do you open your career with three wins and three seconds in six races. Nor do you improve your speed figures every race, like this Ghostzapper progeny has. Stronghold has the stalking style, gritty attitude and two-turn talent (2-1-0 in three routes) to hit the board here.
Sierra Leone: We’re not as bullish on this Gun Runner colt as others are. And there’s plenty of reasons to be bullish. He’s 3-1 with victories in the Grade 2 Risen Star and Grade 1 Blue Grass, he has a 98 Beyer Speed Figure on the CV and he’s just a nose loss to Dornoch in the Grade 2 Remsen last December from being unbeaten. Since 2013, eight Derby winners captured a 100-point prep race, a box Sierra Leone checks with his Blue Grass victory. Here’s where the “but” comes in. Sierra Leone’s final three furlongs in that prep was a glacial 39.25 seconds. His final furlong was a less-than-scintillating 13.43. Those aren’t the final fractions of a Derby winner. Plus, how will he cope in a 20-horse free-for-all?
Catching Freedom: The Louisiana Derby hasn’t sent a winner to Churchill Downs’ winner’s circle since Grindstone in 1996, but this Constitution progeny has the ability to rectify that oversight. Like Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom is a closer, who came from last in the 11-horse field to capture the Louisiana Derby by a length. But his fractions in that race were a vastly superior 36.58 (three furlongs) and 12.05 (one furlong). He too, has a solid Beyer (97). But can Catching Freedom catch fire at the end amid traffic?
Fierceness: Someone’s gotta be the favorite here and a horse with a 110 Beyer—the highest figure by any colt in this year’s field by a significant margin—is a good place to start. We’ll continue with his final fractions (36.91 and 12.57), which check the boxes of a Derby contender. That Beyer came in what was the most dominant race by a sophomore this year: Fierceness’ 13 ½-length demolition of the Florida Derby field. If he runs anything close to this, or anything close to his 6 ¼-length destruction of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the rest of the field can forget it. The key word there is “if.” Because this City of Light colt combines those manic races with depressive defeats as odds-on favorites in the Champagne Stakes (seventh at 1-2) and Holy Bull Stakes (third at 1-5). Still, he’s the most talented colt in the field and—after you dust off the chalk—you’d kick yourself for not having him on one of your tickets.
