Will a quarterback win the Super Bowl MVP once again, or will a wide receiver earn the prestigious honor? The Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots square off in Super Bowl 60. The Seahawks enter the Super Bowl as a -4.5 betting favorite, and quarterback Sam Darnold is the consensus favorite to win the MVP.
You can back Darnold to win the MVP at +130 odds according to BetMGM. New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is the second favorite on the MVP board at +240.
SUPER BOWL HISTORY: MVP BY POSITIONS
Quarterback: 34
Wide Receiver: 8
Running Back: 7
Linebacker: 4
Defensive End: 2
Safety: 2
Cornerback: 1
Defensive Tackle: 1
Kick Returner: 1
Kicker/Punter: 0
Selecting the quarterback on the winning team is a popular prop-betting strategy for the Super Bowl. Quarterbacks are usually the favorites for a reason. A quarterback won the MVP 34 times since the inception of the Super Bowl 60 years ago, and 18 times since 1999. Since 2017, a quarterback won the MVP seven times, including three in a row.
Wide receivers won the second-most MVPs with eight, including five in the last 20 years. Two of them were recognized in the last seven years, including Cooper Kupp, the star of Super Bowl 56, when he played for the Los Angeles Rams.
Only seven running backs won the MVP, but none this century. Terrell Davis was the last one to do so in Super Bowl 32 for the Denver Broncos. Davis is the lone back to win in three decades, and only three running backs won the MVP in the last 40 years.
Ten defensive players won the MVP, with two of them as co-winners in Super Bowl 12. Linebackers won the MVP four times. Von Miller, a former linebacker with the Broncos, is the last defensive star to secure the MVP in Super Bowl 50.
Special teams rarely get any love. A punter or kicker has never won an MVP. Desmond Howard from the Green Bay Packers is the only kick returner to win the MVP back in Super Bowl 31.
BetMGM offers a separate prop bet where you can pick the MVP by position. Quarterback is the favorite at -300 odds, followed by wide receiver at +300, and running back/fullback at +450.
Here’s a quick review of the specific MVP favorites:
Sam Darnold (QB, Seahawks) +130
The Seahawks are the Super Bowl favorite, and Darnold will get most of the attention from prop bettors. Despite an oblique injury, he guided the Seahawks to an NFC Championship victory and a Super Bowl berth. He has two weeks to heal, so his core injury shouldn’t be a factor.
Darnold is playing for his fifth team since the New York Jets selected him as the third overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Seattle marks its fourth team in the last four seasons. His previous squad, the Minnesota Vikings, are kicking themselves for not signing him in the offseason despite a 14-3 record last season.
Darnold completed 67.7 percent of his passes for 4,048 yards and 25 touchdowns in 17 regular-season starts for the Seahawks. He threw 14 interceptions and was sacked 27 times.
In two playoff games, Darnold completed 69.8 percent of his passes with zero interceptions. He posted an impressive 78.1 QBR and a 122.4 QB rating. He torched the Los Angeles Rams for 346 yards and three touchdowns in the NFC Championship game.
Drake May (QB, Patriots) +240
Although Drake Maye is in close contention for the regular season MVP, he’s second on the Super Bowl MVP board behind Darnold. Maye faced an easy schedule in the regular season, completing 72 percent of his passes for 4,392 yards and 31 touchdowns. He threw eight interceptions, but his offensive line allowed 47 sacks.
Maye scored four rushing touchdowns in the regular season, and his mobility has been a welcome bonus in the postseason. He scored the Patriots’ only touchdown in a 10-7 victory over the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship. His 65 rushing yards helped the Patriots lock up a trip to the Super Bowl.
Maye faced three difficult defenses in the postseason. Although the Patriots won all three, they averaged only 18 points per game. Maye completed 55.8 percent of his passes for only 533 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions. He was also sacked 15 times. His postseason QBR is only 51.1, and his QB rating is 84.0. During the regular season, Maye led the league in QBR at 77.1, and he posted a 113.5 QB rating.
The underdog won the last three Super Bowls, and their quarterback secured MVP honors. If you backed the “dog QB” as your MVP pick, you would’ve been correct with Jalen Hurts in Super Bowl 59 and Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowls 57 and 58. If you want to back that trend, then Maye seems logical to win the MVP at +240 odds.
Jaxon Smith-Njiba (WR, Seahawks) +500
If you’re looking for a non-quarterback, then Jaxon Smith-Njigba is your best value wager to win the MVP at +500. As the most talented skills player from either team, oddsmakers installed Smith-Njigba as the third favorite on the prop betting board. Smith-Njigba caught 119 passes for 1,793 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. In the postseason, he caught 13 passes on 16 targets and tallied at least one touchdown in each playoff game. He lit up the Rams for 153 yards and one score in the NFC Championship.
Kenneth Walker (RB, Seahawks) +650
Kenneth Walker had a monster performance in a blowout victory against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Divisional Round with 145 total yards and three touchdowns. Walker added 111 combined yards and one touchdown in the NFC Championship. Zach Carbonnet is out for the season with a torn ACL, so Walker has become the Seahawks’ primary weapon in their ground attack.
Rashid Shaheed (WR, Seahawks) +2500
The Seahawks added the speedy Rashid Shaheed prior to the trade deadline. He was a main contributor to the New Orleans Saints offense, but he’s the third receiving option on the Seahawks, mostly as a deep ball threat. He caught only one pass in the NFC title game, but it was a memorable bomb for 51 yards. However, Shaheed scored two touchdowns as a kick returner, including one punt and one kickoff.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, Patriots) +3000
If the Patriots expect to win, they’ll need big production from their backfield. In 14 games this season, Stevenson tallied 948 yards from scrimmage and scored 11 touchdowns. In three postseason games, he didn’t reach the end zone, but he rushed 51 times for 194 yards and added 86 receiving yards.
Stefon Diggs (WR, Patriots) +5000
The Patriots are thin at wide receiver, but veteran Stefon Diggs is their most consistent weapon, catching 85 passes for 1,013 yards and four touchdowns in 17 games this season. Diggs has not made much of an impact in three playoff games, with only 11 catches for 73 yards and one touchdown.
TreVeyon Henderson (RB, Patriots) +8000
Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson from Ohio State scored nine of his 10 touchdowns in the second half of the season. He finished with 1,132 combined yards, including 991 rushing yards on 5.1 yards per carry. Henderson has been underutilized in the postseason with only 24 carries for 57 yards and no touchdowns.
Cooper Kupp (WR, Seahawks) +10000
Veteran wideout Cooper Kupp is chasing a second MVP and second Super Bowl ring. He battled injuries in the last couple of seasons in L.A., which is why the Rams cut him in the offseason. Kupp delivered revenge against his former squad in the NFC Championship when he caught a touchdown and secured a clutch first down late in the game. Kupp is a long shot on the board at +10000 odds, but voters love a tear-jerking narrative when casting their MVP vote.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
