It’s been two decades since the PGA debuted the playoff system for golf, hoping that the last three (four this year) tournaments, along with the points gained all year, would make for compelling golf. Unfortunately, it’s fallen short of that goal every year. And every year, the PGA advisory board changes the rules. From 2019 through 2024, the Tour Championship used a starting-strokes format, where players began with a score advantage based on their FedEx Cup points entering the event. That system allowed the possibility for one player to win the event but not the Cup, or vice versa. For example, in 2018, Tiger Woods won the Tour Championship, but Justin Rose won the FedEx Cup due to superior season-long positioning. That won’t happen this year. However, regardless of the rules, they have generated very little excitement and a “who cares” attitude from fans and players alike.
Best of the Field
The Tour Championship is supposed to honor the player who played the best all year. And this year—like last year—that golfer has been hands down Scottie Scheffler. He’s played dominant golf since he returned from an early-season injury. He’s won two Majors—the PGA and the Open Championship—the Memorial, the CJ Cup, and last week’s BMW Championship, the third of four legs of the playoff system. He leads his closest competitor, Rory McIlroy, in points by 7,456 to 3,687. Yet if he doesn’t win the Tour Championship at East Lake in Atlanta, he won’t win the FedEx Cup.
If Rory wins, that’s something you may understand. It would be Rory’s fourth win of the season, and you can argue he deserves it. But only two golfers in the 30-man field in Atlanta have two wins, and 12 of them have no wins at all. It would be a travesty if one of them takes home the FedEx over Scottie. But that’s the case, and it opens up lots of opportunities for value plays.
Betting Favorites
BetMGM has Scheffler as a heavy favorite at +170. Fresh off a win at the BMW Championship and now going against only 29 other players at a course he’s had success at before (he won the Tour Championship and FedEx Cup last year), it’s hard to go against the No. 1 player in the world this week. Not only that, Scheffler is in the midst of a dominating stretch, logging 13 straight events finishing T-8 or better. But he hasn’t won back-to-back tournaments since 2024.
McIlroy is the second favorite at +850. For him to win, he must concentrate on a few things. First of all, he’s a three-time FedEx Cup champion (2016, 2019, 2022), and this year’s format makes another win even more plausible. McIlroy leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained off the tee. He needs to dominate East Lake’s narrow fairways and stay out of the rough. When Rory drives well at East Lake, he usually contends. His three wins there prove that.
Longer Odds
Tommy Fleetwood and Ludvig Aberg are worth a look at +1200.
Fleetwood lacks distance off the tee compared to his counterparts. Over the last three months, he ranks 27th out of 30th in driving distance gained. However, the Englishman owns a strong record at East Lake. He finished sixth here in 2023 after 16th and 11th, respectively, in 2019 and 2018.
For Aberg, his strength lies in his elite ball-striking, and he remains calm under pressure. At East Lake, a course that rewards precision over pure power, fairways and greens will be key. He can’t afford a cold putter week. He needs to capitalize on Par 5s. East Lake only has two par 5s (holes 6 and 18)—both scorable. He must birdie or eagle these with consistency.
How about Ben Griffin? At +3300, that’s some good value. Griffin has had a breakout year, winning twice and logging eight other top-10 finishes. He also enters in great form, with three straight finishes of T-12 or better. East Lake also fits his game well, and he putts his best on Bermuda greens. He also may have some extra motivation this week, looking to lock up his spot on the United States Ryder Cup team. While he finished ninth in points and seems more than likely to get a captain’s pick, a great week this week would all but lock that up.
Robert MacIntyre is also +3300, but the way he withered under Scheffler’s game after going into the final round with a four-stroke lead at the BMW doesn’t bode well for him.
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