For those of you who pay attention to horse racing only a few times a year (read the Triple Crown season in the spring), this weekend should shake you from your apathy.
It’s Breeders’ Cup weekend. At Santa Anita Park, in Southern California, the 89-year-old classic track at the base of the San Gabriel Mountains, which plays host to the two biggest days in horse racing for the 11th time, beginning Friday afternoon with “Future Stars Friday.” Those five races feature 2-year-olds. The television schedule begins at 4 p.m. ET on USA Network and goes until 8 p.m. ET. That includes the Juvenile. That gives horseplayers and casual fans alike a peek at potential future Kentucky Derby contenders going into the following spring.
14 Races Create Plenty of Opportunities
Saturday is a horseplayer’s bacchanalia: nine virtual All-Star races, featuring distances from the five-furlong $2 million Sprint to the 1 ¼-mile $6 million Classic, the Breeders’ Cup’s signature race.
Other key races include the $4 million Turf, which has been the recent near-exclusive province of European invaders. Five of the last six winners of the event’s penultimate race came from across the Atlantic and with six Group 1 winners coming in from Europe, expect it to be six of the last seven.
The $2 million Distaff is a deep and talented field of 12 fillies and mares—11 of which are stakes winners and eight of those own a Grade 1 on their resume. Win the Distaff and an Eclipse Award for either Best 3-Year-Old Filly or Best Older Mare is likely in your future.
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Breeders’ Cup Classic Shows Off Best of the Best
But even those All-Star races are undercards to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, which every year, features the top 3-year-olds and most accomplished older horses competing in a kingmaking contest that often decides the eventual Horse of the Year. Each of the last three winners of the Classic: Flightline last year, Knicks Go (2021) and Authentic (2020) were crowned Horse of the Year.
This year’s Classic field is missing the marquee names from this year’s Triple Crown campaign. There will be no Mage after the Kentucky Derby champion spiked a fever last week. No National Treasure; the Preakness winner is running in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. No Arcangelo, after the Belmont and Travers winner scratched Tuesday due to a left hind foot issue. Also missing is injured Haskell Invitational winner Geaux Rocket Ride.
But the field isn’t devoid of standout sophomores, starting with 3-1 morning-line favorite Arabian Knight. When we last saw the Bob Baffert charge, he was winning the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar at this very 10-furlong distance as the 2.10-1 favorite. Baffert horses with strong front-end speed running at the Hall of Famer’s home track are very difficult to beat and the Uncle Mo progeny is 2-for-3 this year and 3-for-4 lifetime, with only a third in the Haskell spoiling the parade.
Starting with that third, there are two caveats. The first, being that was the only time Arabian Knight didn’t seize the early lead and there is a lot of front-end speed in this field. The second concerns Arabian Knight’s career-best Beyer Speed Figure. It’s a good-but-not-a-door-buster 101. By way of comparison, there’s been only two sub-110 winning Beyers in the Classic this century: Drosselmeyer’s 104 in 2011 and Accelerate’s 105 five years ago.
The average winning Beyer in the 10 previous Classics run at Santa Anita is 114.6.
That brings us to the other standout 3-year-old in the field: Saudi Crown (12-1). His best Beyer is 106 and he’s two noses away from being undefeated in his five starts (3-2-0). Those came in the Grade 3 Dwyer at Aqueduct and the Grade 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga. He comes in off a victory in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby, but tackles 1 ¼ miles and older horses for the first time.
Which White Abarrio Will We See?
Speaking of older horses, morning-line author Jon White made 4-year-old White Abarrio the 4-1 co-second choice with Japanese contender Ushba Tesoro. Understandable, when you consider he owns the top Beyer in the field—a 110 clocked when he destroyed the Grade 1 Whitney field at Saratoga in August by 6 ¼ lengths. He’s 2-for-4 this year, with that Whitney win and a March allowance score at his Gulfstream Park home track. But his lone trip beyond 1 1/8 miles was a 16th—in the 2022 Kentucky Derby.
As for Ushba Tesoro, the 6-year-old Japanese invader is enjoying a stellar 2023. He’s 3-for-3, banking more than $7.8 million, buoyed by a $7.2 million payday for winning the Group 1 Dubai World Cup in March. He’s won seven of his last eight races dating to April 2022. This is his second race in six months and his first in the U.S.
Looking for another down-ticket long shot to beef up your tickets? Look to a familiar name: Zandon (12-1). His late-running style could bring him his 13th in-the-money finish in a graded-stakes race. He’s 3-6-3, including a third in the 2022 Kentucky Derby and a last-out score in the Grade 2 Woodward at Aqueduct in October.
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