In 2023, a dozen NFL teams won at least 10 games and all of them qualified for the playoffs. Heading into the upcoming 2024 season, only nine teams have a projected win total of 10.5 Over/Under including the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs (11.5 O/U), Super Bowl runner-up San Francisco 49ers (11.5 O/U), Baltimore Ravens (11.5 O/U), Detroit Lions (10.5 O/U), Dallas Cowboys (10.5 O/U), Buffalo Bills (10.5 O/U), Philadelphia Eagles (10.5 O/U), Green Bay Packers (10.5 O/U), and Cincinnati Bengals (10.5 O/U).
Buffalo Bills 10.5 O/U
The Bills also face a make-or-break season, and even their legion of diehard fans known as the Bills Mafia are getting restless. The Bills were one of the top teams in the AFC the last four seasons, yet only advanced to one AFC Championship game with zero Super Bowl appearances. They were knocked out in the divisional round in each of the last three postseasons.
Head coach Sean McDermott finds himself on the hot seat while trying to ignore Bill Belichick replacement rumors. Within a ten-month span in 2023, McDermott parted ways with defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier and offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. He’s running out of assistant coaches to be the scapegoat for the Bills’ lack of success. Dorsey got the boot when the offense struggled after a 5-5 start. The Bills instantly responded, particularly Josh Allen, and they finished the regular season with a 6-1 clip. The Bills were hot entering the playoffs until they were knocked out by the Chiefs for a third time in the last four postseasons. Two of those exits were soul-crushing, one-score losses including last year.
The Bills have the sixth-hardest schedule this season. Starting in Week 2, the Bills hit the road for four away games over the next five weeks. Their front-loaded schedule includes the Dolphins, Jaguars, Ravens, Texans, and Jets. Their last four matchups before a bye in Week 12 include road games against the Seattle Seahawks and Indianapolis Colts and a pair of home games against the Dolphins and Chiefs. The Bills could be 5-6 heading into December where they still have to face the Los Angeles Rams, 49ers, Lions, and Jets.
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Baltimore Ravens 11.5 O/U
The Ravens posted the best record last season thanks to a stifling defense that allowed only 16.5 points per game. They also had the fourth-best offense that generated 28.4 points per game under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken.
The Ravens signed Derrick Henry in hopes the durable veteran will provide them with stability in their backfield. Henry struggled running behind a bad offensive line with the Tennessee Titans, but now he’ll have a chance to thrive behind one of the premier O-lines in the NFL.
The Ravens face the second-hardest schedule in 2024. Their opponents have a combined winning percentage of .536. Three out of their first five games are on the road with tough matchups against the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Bengals. They also host the Bills in Week 4.
San Francisco 49ers 11.5 O/U
Injuries prevented the 2022 49ers from reaching the Super Bowl, and the 2023 team was edged out by the Chiefs in overtime in Super Bowl 58. The 49ers find themselves at an inflection point in 2024. Will they finally break through and win the Super Bowl, or did they miss their window?
Superstar running back Christian McCaffrey‘s calf injury is the biggest concern. The 49ers shut him down for the rest of the preseason, but are optimistic that he’ll be fine by Week 1. The 49ers also had to deal with too many distractions in training camp with constant rumors about Brandon Aiyuk on the trade block.
The 49ers are currently ranked #12 overall in strength of schedule, which includes four tough non-conference games against the Chiefs, Bills, Miami Dolphins, and New York Jets.
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Kansas City Chiefs 11.5 O/U
Over the last five seasons, the Chiefs cemented their dynasty with four Super Bowl appearances and three championships. It’s not easy to win back-to-back Super Bowls in the modern era, and no team has ever won three in a row.
The haters will point out the Chiefs’ margin of victory in the last two Super Bowls as why they “got lucky.” Both wins were decided by a total of six points. They edged out the Eagles in Super Bowl 57 by three points and defeated the 49ers by three points in Super Bowl 58’s overtime thriller.
Veteran teams with Super Bowl aspirations in the 17-game era are less concerned about how they play in September, which they treat as an extended preseason. Their primary goal is to peak in January when the games count the most.
The Chiefs have logged a significant amount of gridiron time the last two seasons. They played 20 games in 2022 and 21 games in 2023. Will all those extra games catch up to them this season?
The Chiefs have a much easier schedule on paper than other contenders in the AFC, which is slightly deceptive. They’re ranked #16 overall and their opponents have a combined winning percentage at .502. They host the Ravens and Bengals to start the season, and have an early bye in Week 6. Starting in Week 7, they’re on the road for four out of their next six games with tough spots against the 49ers and Bills.
The end of the regular season will be a challenge when the Chiefs face three road opponents in their last four games. They host their final home game against the Houston Texans in Week 16, before a quick turnaround to play the Steelers in Pittsburgh on a short rest during a rare mid-week Christmas matchup.
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Dallas Cowboys 10.5 O/U
It’s been almost 20 seasons since the Cowboys won their last championship in Super Bowl 30. They qualified for the playoffs 13 times since their last title, but never advanced past the divisional round. In the 21st Century, the Cowboys have zero appearances in the NFC Championship.
Owner Jerry Jones wants to win one more Super Bowl before he rides off into the sunset. You’d think he’d want to limit distractions in training camp, but the shrewd negotiator is in a contract-extension standoff with star WR CeeDee Lamb.
The Cowboys are a polarizing team, which is often reflected in their massive betting market. Devoted super fans will be hammering their Over in win totals, and the haters are not shy about betting the Under. The current win total is on the low side at 10.5 O/U considering the Cowboys went 12-5 in each of the last three seasons.
Detroit Lions 10.5 O/U
The Lions went 12-5 last season and narrowly missed a chance to reach the Super Bowl when they lost to the 49ers by three points in the NFC Championship. Bettors profited the last couple of seasons betting the Over for the Lions’ win total, but now is the perfect time to start fading them.
The Lions have the eleventh hardest schedule this season, and the NFC North is always a tricky division to navigate. After an early bye in Week 5, eight of the Lions’ next 10 opponents had a winning record last season including non-divisional road games against the Cowboys, Texans, and 49ers. They also have home games against the Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars in that laborious stretch.
Philadelphia Eagles 10.5 O/U
The scorching-hot Eagles began last season at 10-1 with impressive wins against the Chiefs and Bills, before they hit the skids in December. They stumbled into the playoffs losing five out of their last six games, so it was not a surprise when they were beaten down by the Tampa Bay Bucs in the NFC Wild Card.
The Eagles caught a break for 2024, and their strength of schedule is ranked #21. They end the season with three NFC East divisional tilts and will have to go bum hunting elsewhere because the New York Giants and Washington Commanders are both expected to be much better than last season.
The Eagles boasted one of the best offensive lines the last two seasons, but veteran center Jason Kelce retired, and the controversial “Tush Push” or “Brotherly Shove” might not be as effective this season.
Cincinnati Bengals 10.5 O/U
The Bengals finished 9-8 last season which was impressive considering all of the injuries to key offensive players. Joe Burrow nursed a calf injury for all of September, and J’Marr Chase was banged up in the second half of the season.
Compared to their division rivals, the Bengals play an easier schedule that is ranked #17 overall. They also have the added benefit of a later bye this season. They could start 8-3 this season, which means they’ll only have to win three out of their last six games to hit the Over with 11 victories.
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Green Bay Packers 10.5 O/U
Three out of the Packers’ first six games are against losing squads, but they start the season in Brazil against the Eagles which has the potential to throw them out of sync. If the Packers don’t jump out to a hot start, then the Under is looking good. The Packers face the fourth-hardest schedule this season including an excruciating stretch between Week 7 and Christmas.
Once Week 7 begins, eight out of the Packers’ next nine opponents were winning squads last season. They face non-conference foes like the Texans, Jaguars, and Dolphins. Their schedule also includes the NFC West with a big game against the 49ers in Week 12 and against the Seahawks in their deafening stadium in Seattle in Week 15. Oh, and the Packers also play the Lions twice in that stretch and head down to Chicago for a joust with the Bears in Week 11. Yeah, utterly brutal which is why the Under looks enticing.
