March Madness is finally here which means get ready for some early round upsets in the 2025 men’s college basketball tournament. Higher-seeded sleeper teams with possible upset potential include #11 VCU, #12 Colorado State, #12 UC San Diego, #13 Yale, and #13 High Point.
Although predicting a #12 seed over a #5 seed is a popular trend when filling out your March Madness brackets, it’s important to not overlook #11 or #13 seeds. There’s also tremendous value in betting these higher-seeded underdogs against the spread.
Teams as the #11 seed have a 40 percent win rate. Three of them advanced to the Round of 32 last year, and nine total #11 seeds defeated #7 seeds in the last four tournaments.
Since 2019, eight #12 seeds won their games against #5 seeds. Last year, James Madison and Grand Canyon pulled off upsets as a #12 seed.
Since 2018, seven #13 seeds emerged victorious against #4 seeds including four times since 2021.
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#11 VCU vs. #6 BYU
After a bumpy start, VCU (28-6) went 18-2 in their last 20 games and won the Atlantic 10 Conference tournament. VCU is led by head coach Ryan Odom, who is no stranger to pulling off upsets. Odom guided #16 UMBC to a stunning and historic win over #1 Virginia in 2018.
VCU has a well-experienced squad with four seniors in their starting lineup. They rely on their versatile defense that excels on the perimeter and in the paint. We like VCU in this spot as a +3.5 underdog. They went 20-13 ATS this season.
BYU (24-9) finished in third place in their second season in the Big 12. The Cougars lack an interior threat, which is why they rely heavily on a barrage of 3-point shooting especially from sniper Richie Saunders (43.3 percent from deep). They’re a feast-or-famine team that will be well-tested against a very good defensive opponent.
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#12 Colorado State vs. #5 Memphis
Penny Hardaway’s Memphis (29-5) squad is banged up, and Colorado State (25-9) is coming in red hot with a 10-game winning streak and a 17-point margin of victory.
Colorado State began the season 5-5, but went 15-2 since mid-January. They capped off a 10-game winning streak by securing the Mountain West tournament title. Senior guard Nique Clifford is shooting 50 percent from the floor and nearly 40 percent from 3-point land. Clifford leads Colorado State with 19.0 ppg, 9.7 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game.
Memphis point guard Tyrese Hunter sustained a serious injury in the American Conference tournament, but Memphis still cruised to a conference title without their floor general. Memphis is heading into March Madness on a 16-1 boost, but their future is in doubt if Hunter doesn’t play.
Colorado State opened as a -3 favorite, and they’re the only #12 seed that is the outright betting favorite.
#12 UC San Diego vs. #5 Michigan
In only their fifth season in Division I, UC San Diego secured their first trip to March Madness. After a shaky 2-2 start, UCSD (30-4) won 12 games in a row to get back on track. They’ll enter March Madness on a 15-game winning streak. UCSD is the top betting team in the country at 25-7. They covered in 13 out of their last 15 games. That’s one of the main reasons they’re only a +2.5 underdog against the second-best team in the Big Ten.
Head coach Eric Olen employs a triple guard offense and all three of his sharpshooters are seniors. Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, a senior guard from New Zealand, leads UCSD with 19.5 ppg and he’s shooting 57 percent from the floor. Tyler McGhie is their second-best scorer at 16.4 ppg. Hayden Gray is a local high school legend in San Diego, and he won the Big West’s Defensive Player of the Year. He’s also UCSD’s most accurate shooter with a 42 percent success rate from downtown and knocked down six treys in the Big West Conference championship.
Michigan (25-9) finished in second place in the Big Ten, during a subpar year for the conference in the first season after they absorbed Pac-12 teams. Michigan lost their last three games of the regular season before they won three games in three days to lock up the Big Ten Conference Tournament crown. Vladislav Goldin, a 7-foot-1 senior center from Russia, leads Michigan with 16.7 ppg.
#13 Yale vs. #4 Texas A&M
For a second year in a row, we like Yale (22-7) to pull off an upset as the #13 seed. The Ivy League champ picked off Auburn last year as a +14 underdog. This year, it’s another Ivy League vs SEC battle in the Round of 64. Oddsmakers will not be ambushed by Yale this year, which is why Texas A&M is only a favorite of -7.5.
Guard John Poulakidas (19.2 ppg) is Yale’s leading scorer and a career 40 percent shooter from 3-point range. Poulakidas dropped 28 points in last year’s upset over Auburn.
Texas A&M (22-10) finished in fifth place in the stacked SEC. They’re the worst shooting team in the SEC and rely on their robust offensive rebounding and points in the paint. They struggle to defend the perimeter, which could be problematic against Yale’s sharpshooters.
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#13 High Point vs. #4 Purdue
One of the fun aspects of March Madness is learning about a small school that you never heard about before Selection Sunday. High Point University is a tiny school in North Carolina nestled between Greensboro and Winston-Salem. As a member of the Big South, High Point won their conference tournament and punched their first-ever ticket to the Big Dance.
High Point (29-5) won 14 games in a row, and they’re an +8 underdog against Purdue. This is a perfect spot for a Cinderella story. It would be fitting if High Point could pull off an upset in their first March Madness appearance.
High Point is a high-volume 3-point shooting team but also has a 7-foot center who loves to crash the glass. Juslin Bodo Bodo is a sophomore center from Cameroon and a huge fan favorite.
Purdue (22-11) posted a few impressive victories earlier in the season, but they’re limping into March Madness after losing six out of their last nine games.
Bonus Sleeper: #10 New Mexico
At least one #10 seed typically beats a #7 seed and advances to the Round of 32 every year. Last year, it was Colorado defeating Florida in a thriller.
This year’s batch of #10 seeds includes New Mexico, Arkansas, Utah State, and Vanderbilt. Keep an eye out for New Mexico and Arkansas.
New Mexico (26-7) squares off against an underachieving Marquette squad. Marquette finished the season on an 8-8 clip and slipped to fourth place in the Big East. New Mexico is led by junior guard Donovan Dent, the Mountain West Player of the Year, who averages 20.6 ppg and shoots 41.6 percent from 3-point range. New Mexico opened as a +4.5 underdog against Marquette, who had a losing record against the spread at 14-18-1.
Arkansas (20-13) struggled in John Calipari’s first season since leaving Kentucky. Coach Cal will battle Bill Self and Kansas (21-12) for a chance to potentially meet Rick Pitino’s St. John’s in the Round of 32. Arkansas opened as a +3.5 dog.
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