Until a few years ago, the PGA Championship was the final major of the season. But it was moved to second place in the major lineup to hopefully focus more attention on the FedEx Cup—the competition of the point leaders—at the end of the “official” season. Well, that didn’t work, and now the PGA seems to be just a stepping stone to the U.S. Open in June and the Open Championship in the UK in July, which is now the final stop, which actually increases interest in golf’s most popular event.
Nevertheless, the PGA Championship is still a major, and winning it means everything to the players. And for bettors, that passion for winning also means everything. So how can we bet the winner and get an edge?
Take the Win
The favorites— Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Cameron Young—have become less favorites in the week leading up to the tournament. Defending PGA champion Scheffler is still the Number 1 golfer in the world. He’s only won a single tournament but has been in the top 10 six times. His odds have dropped from +345 to +450 in the last week.
McIlroy won the Masters in April in back-to-back years. He drifted slightly after a “poor” showing at Quail Hollow, providing better value for the Northern Ireland golfer. His odds have dropped from +800 to +910.
And the hottest golfer on the tour this year has been Cameron Young. He won the Players Championship (arguably the 5th major) and the Cadillac Championship two weeks ago and had a Top 10 at last week’s Truist. Young remains the consensus “smart” pick, but his odds have drifted slightly at some books (now as high as +1650), providing even better value than earlier in the week.
Jon Rahm (+1300 to +1600) has jumped Bryson DeChambeau to become the top-favored LIV golfer in the field.
Despite being one of the hottest players on Tour, Matt Fitzpatrick’s odds have lengthened slightly as money pours in on Young and Rahm. At +2300, the 2022 U.S. Open champ is being called an “auto-bet” by some experts.
Jordan Speith arrives at Aronimink with a career Grand Slam in sight. He’s won all the other three majors, but has swung and missed at the PGA. His recent performances haven’t been impressive. He has zero wins and zero top 10s this year and his last victory was at the 2022 RBC Heritage. But a sentimental bet can get you as much as +8000.
Field Futures
Aronimink Golf Club favors the long drivers, but it also features demanding second shots and huge, undulating greens that are hard to read. This is the first time since 1962 that the Donald Ross-designed course has presented a major, but it has been the site of several PGA tournaments over the years.
The substance of Aronimink—7,394 yards, par 70—is its par 4s. They are consistently demanding, each one (after the opening hole) entailing a change of direction as you approach the tee, so that you never get comfortable with wind direction, and each one on terrain that varies in terms of elevation, slope, and side tilt.
The forecast includes possible rain on Wednesday into Thursday morning, which will soften the course, favoring the long hitters and high flyers.
With 156 players in the field, it’s not only difficult to pinpoint a winner, but also to predict the Top 10 or Top 20.
5 For 10
For the Top 10 finishers, there are a few options.
Xander Schauffele (+180) is the quintessential “Top 10 machine” in majors. He already won a PGA Championship in 2024 and his statistical profile—ranking elite in scrambling and bunker play—is a perfect match for Aronimink’s 175 bunkers. Even when he doesn’t win, he rarely falls out of the top tier. He has top-10 finishes in nearly 50 percent of his major starts since 2017.
Tommy Fleetwood (+260) has emerged as a favorite among golf analysts this week for a Top 10 finish. Aronimink rewards accuracy over raw power, and Fleetwood’s “fairways and greens” style is built for this layout. He is currently coming off a string of strong performances and historically excels on tough, Northeast parkland courses that require patience and bogey avoidance.
Matt Fitzpatrick’s (+210) odds for an outright win have drifted slightly, making his Top 10 value even more attractive. He excels at difficult, “grind-it-out” majors (like his 2022 U.S. Open win) and is one of the best long-iron players in the world—essential for Aronimink’s notoriously long par-3s.
Russell Henley (+450) has the “sharp” value. If you’re looking for a better payout with a high probability of contending, Henley is the pick of the week. He leads the field in driving accuracy and proximity to the hole over his last 24 rounds. On a Donald Ross course where missing the fairway means an automatic bogey, Henley’s precision makes him a strong candidate to hang around the first two pages of the leaderboard all weekend.
And while Scottie Scheffler (-140) only gets you negative money, there’s a reason for that. He has 13 top-10s in his last 20 majors. Not a bad bet at all.
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