We learned plenty in Week 4. We learned Utah and Illinois aren’t nearly as good as advertised. Because teams that are as good as advertised don’t get dismantled 34-10 (Texas Tech over Utah) or (checks notes again to make sure this isn’t a typo) 63-10: Indiana’s romp over Illinois.
But Week 5 promises better. Look at the games on the slate: Alabama-Georgia, LSU-Mississippi, Notre Dame-Arkansas. And one we’re not even covering here: Oregon-Penn State.
Expect plenty of points all around and plenty of suspense—even if you’re not a fan of any of those teams, because this is a great smorgasbord weekend of college football.
Last week: 1-2, Season: 6-7.
Novelty Game Should Produce Points
It may surprise you that Notre Dame and Arkansas meet for the first time. It probably surprises you that Arkansas QB Taylen Green leads the SEC in yards per game (387.8) and that he’s thrown for 325 and 305 yards the last two weeks in losses to Memphis and Mississippi.
Green engineers a Razorbacks’ offense that produces 558 yards a game and 8.1 yards a play. Earlier this season, he became the first QB in program history to throw for 300 yards and run for 100 in a single game.
This won’t surprise the Fighting Irish, but it will bedevil Marcus Freeman’s already tormented defense. Notre Dame is surrendering an eye-watering 289 yards a game through the air—good for 132nd nationally—and is ranked in triple-digits in every passing defensive category save completion percentage.
Notre Dame won’t be surprised by Green because the Irish faced another multi-threat QB in Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed. It didn’t end well for Notre Dame, which gave up 397 yards and 41 points to the Aggies earlier this season.
Here’s where the “but…” lies. Arkansas’ defense is a pedestrian 86th in rush defense (157.5), allowing 290 yards to Memphis in the Tigers’ upset victory last week. The Irish shredded Purdue for 258 yards on the ground and three third-quarter TDs last week. Both of these teams are 7-3 to the Over in their last 10, and neither defense is in any position to stop the other’s momentum, which leads us to start our week with a tasty Over.
Best Bet: Over-64.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
We’re Looking to Hit with Ole Miss
As of this writing, 61 percent of the money is on Ole Miss, which makes sense on the trend front. The home team has won the last five meetings between these two in a series that has been played more than 100 times. But it is LSU.
Initially, our inclination was to back No. 3 LSU and run against that trend. Then, we took a deeper dive into who these two have played—and what they’ve done. Yes, LSU ranked ninth in the country in scoring defense (9.25 points per game) and 18th in total defense (246.2 yards per game), so on paper, the Tigers finally have the defense that has eluded them for the past three seasons.
However, last week’s 56-10 laugher against FCS Southeastern Louisiana marked the first time in four games the Tigers scored more than 23 points. Against FBS teams, LSU has averaged only 18 points a game. Diving deeper, two of those victories still carry more cachet than they should—Clemson and Florida, which are both 1-3.
Ole Miss, meanwhile, comes in off a 35-point beatdown of a good Tulane team, a victory that preceded touchdown wins at home against Arkansas and on the road at Kentucky. After throwing for 660 yards, running for 174, and racking up five TDs in his two starts, backup QB Trinidad Chambliss may have stolen the starting job from injured Austin Simmons. The Rebels are ninth in the country in total offense (543 yards per game),12th in scoring (44.8), and 14th in yards per play (7.4).
Our deep dive came up with a nice nugget at anything under a field goal.
Best Bet: Ole Miss -1.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Alabama-Georgia Flip the Script
Georgia comes into this one with a 33-game home winning streak. The Bulldogs, however, also come into this prime-time showcase with one win in their last 10 meetings with the Crimson Tide. Yes, that came in the 2021-22 national championship game, so we do give style points for the substantive win.
We’re not so cavalier with the defensive points this year. You know Alabama and Georgia for regularly fielding defensive fortresses front-to-back. While taking into account last year’s 41-34 Alabama victory—one that featured the Crimson Tide blowing a 28-0 lead before star wideout Ryan Williams bailed out ‘Bama with a 75-yard TD with 2:13 remaining—the normally stout defenses are rather pedestrian this year.
We’ll start by reminding you that the Bulldogs gave up 41 points to Tennessee two weeks ago. We’ll continue by pointing out that Georgia is a subpar 95th in passing completion (63.7 percent) and 111th in yards per attempt (8.1). The Bulldogs are an uncharacteristic 106th in sacks and are allowing enemy QBs a 141.7 passer rating. That plays in the hands of Alabama’s efficient Ty Simpson, who leads the SEC with a 186.6 passer rating and is at the controls of an offense that scored 111 points in the last two games.
The Tide, however, scored those 111 points against Wisconsin and Louisiana-Monroe, which partially cleanses the palate of ‘Bama fans of the taste of that 31-17, season-opening beatdown by Florida State. But how will the Tide’s defense—also uncharacteristically outside the top-120 in pass rush—handle a Georgia team that is No. 1 in red-zone conversion rate and top-30 in scoring and total offense? How will they cope with Georgia QB Gunner Stockton (721 yards, four TDs passing/124 yards, three TDs rushing), who has yet to throw an interception?
You could tag the Over-52.5 here, considering these two have hit the Over four of the last seven times, with one push. But we’re figuring as long as it stays under a field goal, Georgia’s home-field advantage secures this one in another nailbiter.
Best Bet: Georgia -3 (-110 at Caesars)
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