This is how spoiled the Gridiron Guru can get when it comes to betting on the Oregon Ducks and their rampaging, score-at-will offense.
Even giving 28 ½ points to a clearly outclassed Northwestern side, the Ducks were clearly in control, leading 17-0 at the half, then scoring on their next three possessions to take a 34-0 lead. Oregon has outscored its three opponents 155-9 through the first three quarters of its games this season, so we were off to Cover City, right?
Uhhh, no.
Northwestern scraped together two late scores against the Ducks’ backups, back-dooring its way to a 34-14 loss—and a late cover.
The Gridiron Guru did not have Oregon failing to cover on his betting bingo card last week. The inevitable bad beats aside, wagering—as it is often beaten into us—remains a matter of putting yourself in the right position when you find the right opportunity.
Onward with three more games where we think we’ve done exactly that.
Last week: 2-2. Season: 5-5.
More Rocking Like a Hurricane
We learned our lesson about taking Miami too lightly last week. Or was it taking South Florida too seriously? However, you want to parse it in the wake of the Hurricanes’ 49-12 pasting of heretofore Cinderella South Florida, it’s hard to find a team playing better than Miami.
Currently, the U are 20-1 to win the national championship, a wager looking better and better each passing week. The Hurricanes are playing with brutal efficiency on both sides of the ball, with QB Carson Beck completing 78.3 percent of his passes for 812 yards and seven TDs. Well acquainted with Florida during his time with Georgia, Beck is 2-0 against the Gators. Meanwhile, his two interceptions represent Miami’s only turnovers in three games.
The Hurricanes are physical upfront and don’t beat themselves with penalties; they are one of the least-penalized teams in the country. None of this bodes well for a Florida team coming off a 20-10 loss to LSU that featured QB DJ Lagaway throwing five interceptions.
Throw in the hopper, Miami is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, with the lone cover miss being a 45-3 beatdown of Bethune Cookman as 53.5-point favorites. The Gators, meanwhile, are 1-2 ST and ATS, with that glaring 18-16 loss to South Florida as 18-point favorites reminding everyone Florida still has issues. It will have more after Saturday.
Best Bet: Miami -7.5 (-110 at Caesars)
The I’s Have This One
No, we’re not time-traveling or traveling alternate planes. The biggest game in the Big Ten this week somehow doesn’t involve Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, or Oregon. Step right up into your close-up, No. 9 Illinois and No. 19 Indiana.
What awaits us in this close-up? An Indiana offense averaging 591 yards a game, with 307 yards coming on the ground. Behind Cal transfer Fernando Mendoza, the Hoosiers racked up 129 points in the last two games. We’re also treated to a Hoosier defense ranked ninth in the country, holding opposing passers to 107 yards a game.
Yes, these Hoosiers are enjoying heady times. But there’s one thing they haven’t enjoyed since Curt Cignetti migrated north to rebuild a heretofore hopeless Hoosiers’ program—a marquee win. Even during their run into the College Football Playoff last year, Indiana lost two games to ranked teams by double digits: 38-15 to Ohio State and 27-17 to Notre Dame in the CFP.
The Illini, meanwhile, allowed only 22 points to Western Michigan, Duke, and Western Illinois. But we’re paying more attention to a sneakily feral team with a standout defense that is 6-2 ATS as a road underdog and riding a seven-game ATS cover streak. A sneakily feral team that is getting points on the road. That travels well here.
Best Bet: Illinois +4.5 (-110 at Caesars).
The Big 12’s First Statement Game
Texas Tech has outscored its three opponents, 174-35. Utah had handled its three foes, 137-25. Suitably impressed? Don’t be, considering Texas Tech’s opponents were the less-than-mighty Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State, and Oregon State. Utah, meanwhile, took apart a woeful UCLA team before blowing out the Big Sky’s Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo and Wyoming.
Translation: this is the first real test either of these two faces in a game, doubling as an early Big 12 statement-maker. It also doubles as the first time the Red Raiders and Utes have played since 1973.
The stage thus set, all eyes will be on Texas Tech QB Behren Morton, who leads the Big 12 in passer rating (208.4)—understandable, considering the Red Raiders have the No. 1-ranked scoring offense in the country (58 points per game) and the No. 3 offense in yardage (602 per game).
This, however, flies in the face of the X-factor here: the Utah defense, which hasn’t surrendered more than 10 points in its three games—the total the Utes allowed UCLA in its opener.
Pair that with Utah QB Devon Dampier, the dual-threat triggerman and architect of an offense averaging 45 points and 517 yards a game. Now, add in Utah coach Kyle Whittingham, who is well-versed in taking apart high-octane offenses, and the Salt Lake City altitude, and this one is easier to understand.
Best Bet: Utah -3.5 (-110 at Caesars)
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