It hasn’t been the best year for the Los Angeles Dodgers, particularly considering how much money is on their payroll, starting with $70 million for super player Shohei Ohtani—yes, we know it’s deferred money, but money nonetheless. The Dodgers won only 93 games after winning 98 in the championship year of 2024. The San Diego Padres nipped at their heels all season long and forced the Dodgers to endure the Wild Card round of the playoffs. The Dodgers bullpen was a disaster area for most of the season, costing them at least 10 games. Yet, when the playoffs began, L.A. won eight of nine games, sweeping two from the Cincinnati Reds, winning four of five from the vaunted Philadelphia Phillies, and sweeping the Milwaukee Brewers in the League Championship Series.
The Toronto Blue Jays, on the other hand, had a pretty good regular season, overtaking the New York Yankees in August and never looking back. With a bye in the Wild Card Round, the Jays faced the Yanks in the Division Series, winning three of four. In the Championship Series, they lost their first two games at home to the Seattle Mariners, but then took two out of three in Seattle to bring the series back home, where they won the final two games to head to the World Series.
Historic Edge
The two franchises have radically different histories. The Dodgers began in Brooklyn in the late 1800s and were a laughing stock most of the time until they came to life in the 1940s when they developed under GM Branch Rickey, who signed Jackie Robinson to break the color line in baseball in 1947. They thrived from then on, visiting the World Series in what is now second only to the Yankees, 23 times.
The Blue Jays joined the majors as an expansion team in 1977. They’ve played in only two World Series prior to this year, winning back-to-back titles in 1992 and ’93.
In the Dodgers case, we’re looking at a team that could also go back-to-back, having beaten the Yankees in the ’24 Series. No team has gone back-to-back since the Yanks won three years straight from 1998-2000. You are also looking at a team that swept the Brewers, and now are facing a team that was lucky to be able to put the Mariners away in seven games.
You would think that this gives the Dodgers an enormous betting edge. And it does. The Dodgers are more than 2-1 favorites to win at -220. Betting on the Blue Jays gets you +180 at BetMGM. But then there’s this: In the League Championship era, there have been five instances of this situation—sweep vs. a 7-game winner. In every example, the team that had to go to seven games in the LCS emerged victorious in the World Series. Just one of those facts!
But when you look at the two teams rationally, you see one team with the edge.
Pitching Edge
No doubt the Dodgers are dominant. Starting pitching has been their strength. Blake Snell pitched an 8-inning gem in Game 1 vs. Milwaukee. Then Yoshi Yamamoto pitched a complete game in the second game. Tyler Glasnow “only” went six stellar innings in Game 3, and we all know what Ohtani did in the last game. And surprisingly, the bullpen was mostly effective.
The Blue Jays rotation is a mix of young pitchers and grizzled veterans. Shane Bieber, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, and a worn-out Max Scherzer don’t scare anybody, and despite Scherzer’s heroics against Seattle, none have shined yet in the postseason. And the Jays’ bullpen is also suspect, making manager John Scheider’s job that much more difficult.
Hitting Edge
Again, the Dodgers bring to the plate Shohei Otani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez, Max Muncy, and Will Smith one after another. The lineup is daunting, and any one of those mentioned could be the hero. But maybe Kike Hernandez, Tommy Edman, or any of the excellent players that come off the bench for manager Dave Roberts.
This is an area where the Jays can close the gap. Vladimir Guerrero is hitting over .400 and has slammed six homers in the playoffs. Game-seven hero George Springer has slugged four dingers. Sparkplug catcher Alejandro Kirk, Daulton Varsho, and Ernie Clement are having good results. And star shortstop Beau Bichette is healthy, adding more fuel to the fire.
Managing Edge
If it’s results you want, Dave Roberts has been delivering them year-in, year-out for the Dodgers. Roberts has won five pennants and two World Series as Dodgers manager. The team has won the NL West every year but one over the last 13 years. He’s got the players and the experience..
John Schneider, meanwhile, was hired to manage the Blue Jays in 2022. He led the Jays to the Wild Card rounds in ’22 and ’23 but was ousted without winning a game both years. This year, Schneider’s team is 7-4 in the playoffs. Edge to Roberts by a wide margin.
Prop Bets Galore
Like the Super Bowl, the World Series creates thousands of prop bets that can be favorable for the bettor. We love the Series MVP wager. Of course, the top player is Ohtani at +165. But the Dodgers we mentioned earlier are also good bets. Freddie Freeman is 13-1, Teo Hernandez and Mookie Betts are both 18-1. On the Toronto side, Guerrero is 6-1 and Springer is 10-1.
How about the correct Series result? The Dodgers in 7 games are at +500. The Dodgers sweep is at +700. The Jays prices are much steeper. Jays in 7 is +575. Jays sweep is +1800.
Over/Under for the number of games in 5.5. Over is -165. Under is +140. Remember, the Dodgers have only lost one game in the playoffs so far.
Player props are fun as well. How about who hits two or more home runs in the World Series? Ohtani and Guerrero are -250, Springer +400, and Freeman is +250. Three or more homers gives a better edge with Ohtani at +150, Vlad at -120, Springer at +125, and Freeman at +900. Home run leader for the entire series starts with Ohtani at +275, Vlad at +425, and Springer at +600.
Player to record four or more RBI in the Series? Hernandez and Muncy are -200, Ohtani at -175, Guerrero -120, and Betts at -105. Seven or more RBI favors Toronto. Springer is +300, Daulton Varsho is +200 with Ohtani at +350 and Muncy and Teoscar at +400.
All these prop bets will keep people invested in the Series from the first pitch to the last.
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