The NBA Finals start Thursday and features the Denver Nuggets taking on the Miami Heat. This is the Nuggets first appearance in the Finals. Miami has been there six times, earning championship rings in three of those appearances.
Odds to Win Game 1
- Denver -8.5 -110 Over 219, -110 -400
- Miami +8.5 -110 Under 219, -110 +310
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
The Heat’s last trip to an NBA Final was in 2020 in the bubble against the Los Angeles Lakers. The Nuggets have a price to win the series of -380 at Caesars, while the Heat have a price of +300.
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Denver, Miami Take Different Road to Finals
Denver had the best record in the Western Conference and had a 12-3 record in the playoffs. The most impressive series of the three was the sweep against the Lakers.
The Heat just made the playoffs as the No. 8 seed. They faced the No. 1 Milwaukee Bucks in the first round and won the series, 4-1. It was the most impressive series of Miami’s playoff run.
Denver and Miami faced each other twice in the regular season. The Nuggets beat the Heat twice. Once by four points and the other by five. The last meeting was in February and Denver’s Jamal Murray did not play.
Match Ups Key for Both Teams
Nuggets Head Coach Mike Malone doesn’t have the experience in the Finals like Miami’s Erik Spoelstra has. Spoelstra has two NBA Championships as a head coach. This is his sixth trip to the Finals. Malone is a good coach, but Spoelstra has the advantage.
Each team has a Conference Finals MVP leading their team. Denver’s Nikola Jokic and Miami’s Jimmy Butler were third and second, respectively, in scoring in the 2023 playoffs. Jokic is also the playoff leader in assists with 154.
Odds to Win NBA MVP
- Nikola Jovic -300
- Jimmy Butler +350
- Jamal Murray +1200
- Bam Adebayo +4000
- Caleb Martin +5000
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Murray and Bam Adebayo will also be important pieces for their teams. Murray was fifth in points in the playoffs.
A player to watch is Miami’s Caleb Martin. Martin averaged 9.6 points and 4.8 rebounds during the regular season. In his last five games in the Eastern Conference Finals, Martin averaged 19 points and 7.2 rebounds.
NBA Finals Prop Bets, Analysis
The best NBA Finals prop bet I saw was on BetMGM. There is a bet on what player will be the Finals highest scorer option. The top three players are Jokic +130, Butler +175, and Murray +200. Anyone of those bets provide excellent value.
Notes: Tyler Herro is expected to play in this series after breaking his hand in the opening round against the Bucks. Herro is targeting Game 3 in Miami. He averaged 20.1 points per game and 5.4 rebounds.
The Nuggets are 9-6 against the spread and 7-8 with the totals. The Heat are 13-5 against the spread and 10-7 with the totals.
Denver has Jokic, and he is a walking triple double machine. Jokic should dominate his match-up with Adebayo. Butler will have his way over Aaron Gordon in the same manner as LeBron James did by driving to the basket. Murray has appeared unstoppable and is lethal from the 3-point range, shooting nearly 40% from downtown. Coach Malone will have the Nuggets take advantage of Miami’s zone defense. If Herro returns Miami will win one or two games. Denver will have a straight advantage in bench production. Add the pick and roll combination of Murray and Jokic results in Denver having its first NBA Championship with Jokic winning MVP.
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