We segue from Rivalry Week to Championship Week. Yes, it’s here already, bringing nine games over Friday and Saturday. Of the nine, six are rematches from the regular season and five will decide either playoff berths or seedings.
Yes, there’s a lot of “there” that is already “here.”
Toward that end, we are going to handicap more games this week, because there are more games worth handicapping with our value-meets-opportunity barometer.
And yes, there’s an added motive here. This gives the Gridiron Guru one last chance to salvage a .500 record in what has been a wild and crazy college football season.
Last week: 2-1. Season (ATS): 20-21.
Seeing Plenty of Green—and Points
The winner of this American Conference matchup likely gets the Group of 5 spot in the College Football Playoff, raising the stakes to a level that promises one of the most consequential and compelling games of the season.
And these two promise to deliver. You may not be able to find North Texas on a map (it’s located in Denton, north of the Metroplex). But you’ll be able to count all the points the Mean Green scored this year with one of the most prolific offenses in the country. Behind QB Drew Mestemaker, who leads the country in passing (3,835 yards), the Mean Green boast the No. 1-ranked offense in the country (46.8 points per game and 511 yards per game). North Texas has scored at least 31 points a game and at least 50 points in five of its last six.
Tulane, meanwhile, isn’t as prolific, but the Green Wave has cracked 35 points in three of its last four games. Outside of a 45-10 loss to Ole Miss, Tulane hasn’t scored fewer than 24 points all season. Throw in its subpar passing defense (120th in the country at 251 yards per game), and you see where this epic game-in-waiting leads us.
Best Bet: Over-67.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
The Chaos Stops Here
This game illustrated why we need to temporarily rename the ACC the “All Chaos Conference.” How else to describe a 7-5 Duke team backing into the ACC Championship over Miami, Georgia Tech, Pitt, and SMU?
This is how. The Blue Devils emerged from a five-way tie at 6-2 due to having the highest conference winning percentage. That, and SMU somehow losing to Cal last weekend and Miami drubbing Pitt. So here we are, with the potential of a five-loss Duke team, that—by the way—lost to Tulane, winning this game and throwing the CFP seedings into chaos.
Relax. We’re betting it won’t happen. Three weeks ago, Virginia easily handled Duke, 34-17, outgaining the Blue Devils by 300 yards and holding Duke QB Darian Mensah to 214 yards. The Cavaliers have a vastly superior defense, ranking top 30 in five categories, and have allowed 21 points or less in their last six games. Get in as soon as you can on the Cavaliers, as this line has already crept up a point from its open.
Best Bet: Virginia -3.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Forget the QBs, Get Defensive
To borrow an immortal line from “Seinfeld,” the hype in this Big Ten Championship game between No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana—and their Heisman-hopeful QBs: Ohio State’s Julian Sayin and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza—is real. And it’s spectacular.
But so are the defenses in this game. Ohio State allows a miserly 203 yards a game, 121.3 yards through the air, 3.8 yards per play, and 7.8 points per game—all of which lead the nation. They are top-10 in 12 defensive categories and are 7-3 to the Under this year.
Indiana, meanwhile, is nearly as stingy. The Hoosiers yield 10.9 points and 79.2 yards per game on the ground (second), and 251 yards total (ninth). They are top-10 in eight defensive categories and have allowed only 20 points twice this season: to Oregon and Penn State. And Indiana’s 6-3-1 record to the Over is fattened by playing the likes of Purdue (56-3), Maryland (55-10), UCLA (56-6), Michigan State (38-13), and Illinois (63-10). None of which, with their best players combined, would be close to Ohio State’s defense.
No need to overthink this one.
Best Bet: Under-48 (-107 at Caesars)
Let’s Play Two Here
A month ago, we jumped on Texas Tech’s bandwagon when the Red Raiders cooled off a hot BYU team, 29-7. And we see nothing to nudge us off the bandwagon in this Big 12 Championship rematch.
We are, however, seeing a couple of plays here. Again, the defenses should prevail, even with Texas Tech averaging 43.2 points per game (second) and 489.2 yards per game (fourth). Even with those gaudy numbers, the Red Raiders are 3-7 to the Under this year, courtesy of a defense that hasn’t allowed more than 20 points a game in 11 of its 12 games. When these two met last month, standout LB Jacob Rodriguez and Co. held BYU to 67 yards on the ground. More harassment of freshman QB Bear Bachmeier is forthcoming from a defensive front ranked seventh in the country in sacks per game (3.1).
BYU, meanwhile, allows a modest 17.8 points to opposing offenses and is 5-5 to the Under, including Chapter 1 of this game, when the total was set at 50.5.
Guess what? It’s back to that number again. And as bullish as we are on the Red Raiders, we’re happy to play two here.
Best Bets: Under-50.5 (-114 at Caesars) and Texas Tech -13 (-111 at Caesars)
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