Yes, there’s certain trends we embrace like a lost lover. LSU Tigers Overs. Iowa Hawkeyes Unders. Shorting the defense-devoid USC Trojans.
These are always the Robitussin of college football betting: a nice way to get healthy if you’re in a wagering slump.
But if those are Robitussin, there’s one trend that is penicillin—Service Academy Unders. And the Guide welcomes the first of those this week.
Last week: 3-0. Season: 12-10.
We’ve Been Waiting for This One
In sports wagering, there are trends. Then, there are bets that are as reliable as the Thunderbirds or Blue Angels—the trusty Service Academy Under. Since 2012, whenever the Air Force Falcons, Navy Midshipmen, or Army Black Knights meet each other, the Under is 28-3-1 (90.3%). It’s 12-1-1 (92.3%) since 2018. Go back to 2005 and its 43-10-1 (81.1%). This is what we have with 2023’s first meeting of service academies. Air Force and Navy battle it out on Saturday.
This is the happy byproduct of what happens when you put two teams who know how to run—and, more importantly, defend—the triple-option. Only once in their last five meetings have these two scored more than 47 points. Last year, Air Force finished with the No. 1-ranked rushing offense in the country. Yet this one ended 13-10. This year, the Falcons fly in with the No. 1-ranked rushing offense in the country at 334.8 rushing yards per game. They are also the No. 1-ranked offense in time of possession. Navy sails in fifth (235.7), and 33rd, respectively.
There are no surprises here. But where the Falcons have the edge is on defense, which explains why they’re 11.5-point favorites. Air Force ranks fifth in rushing defense, allowing only 77 yards a game and third in total defense (240 ypg). The Middies? They’re 79th (148.5). Subtracting more firepower from this one is the status of Air Force QB Zac Larrier, who is questionable after injuring his knee against Wyoming last week. It’s tougher than a Navy SEAL to give 11.5 points in a game that will feature two teams running, punting, kicking the odd field goal or three and dealing with a relentless clock. So don’t. Instead, stick with a bet that’s as reliable as Gary Cole and the NCIS gang cracking a case in less than an hour.
Best Bet: Under 37.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Watch: Saturday, noon ET, CBS or fuboTV
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We’re Back, Beating on USC
This isn’t quite as reliable as the Service Academy Under, but shorting the USC Trojans defense is gaining quickly on the outside. Much like the Notre Dame Fighting Irish did in dismantling the Trojans, 48-20 last week. The Guide just returned from the chiropractor, getting work on a shoulder strained from patting itself on the back for predicting in this space that the Trojans’ atrocity of a defense would finally betray them. It’s a defense that allows 30 points a game and surrendered a combined 130 in its last three. Now, USC returns home to find a Utah Utes team that is as defensively feral as the Trojans are defensively feeble.
Utah is fifth in the country in points-per-game allowed (12.2), ninth in the country in yards per game (277.8), and 45th in passing yards allowed (211). The Utes have allowed 14 or fewer points in five of their six games this season and are considered one of the best defenses in the country. Those defensive bona-fides established, Utah’s running game just shredded a respectable Cal defense for 34 points and 317 yards, with running back Sione Vaki amassing 158 and two TDs. USC’s rush defense is a below-pedestrian 95th in the country, allowing more than 152 yards a game. In two games last year, Utah rolled up 1,095 yards of offense. Utah is 6-2 ATS against the Trojans in its last eight meetings. We’re happy to keep following another reliable trend.
Best Bet: Utah +7 (-110 at BetMGM)
Watch: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, FOX or fuboTV
Wolverines Set Trap for Their Rivals
If Utah’s defense is a brick wall, the Michigan Wolverines are Fort Knox. The No. 2-ranked Wolverines allow teams less than a TD and extra-point per game. That’s a nation’s best 6.7 points per game, or about what Indiana scored in Michigan’s 52-7 pole-axing last week.
Nobody has scored more than 10 points against the Wolverines this season. Opposing offenses manage only 233.1 yards a game, the second-stingiest defense on that front in the nation. This, along with the nation’s top-ranked red-zone defense (33.3%) makes Michigan virtually impossible to score on or sustain a drive on. So enter the Michigan State Spartans in the Mitten State’s premier rivalry game.
Actually, given where Michigan State’s offense is this year, the 300 Spartans at Thermopylae had better odds for victory. The Spartans are 100th in third-down efficiency (35.9%), 105th in passing efficiency (119.7) and 109th in rushing offense (118.7 ypg). They don’t take care of the ball (a minus-6 in turnover margin), don’t take care of leads (they blew a 27-6 lead and lost 27-24 to Rutgers last week) and don’t take care of spreads (4-5-1 ATS in their last 10). All of this overwhelms whatever rivalry mojo exists this year.
Michigan State has scored 14 or fewer points in four of the last six games against their in-state blood rival, where it is 3-7 ATS. The line on this is Michigan -24.5 and the Wolverines are 3-0 ATS since a September 23 push as 24-point favorites against Rutgers, but we’re looking at another angle: the Spartans’ Team Total Under. Way under.
Best Bet: Michigan State Under 10.5 points (-120 at BetMGM)
Watch: Saturday, noon ET, CBS or fuboTV
