Welcome to the home stretch, run-in, or whatever you want to call the final push toward the finish line of the college football season.
This, of course, means teams have plenty to play for, whether it be winning the six games that guarantee bowl eligibility, winning the games needed to play for a conference championship, or winning the games needed to impress the College Football Playoff Committee into issuing an invitation to the CFP.
And, of course, as we’ve seen this year, there’s that pesky winning enough meaningful games to keep your high-paid gig coaching college football.
Everything’s in play, including adding in a total this week.
Last week: 2-1. Season: 15-16 ATS
The Cardinal Rule—Holding That Tiger
There are certain teams the Gridiron Guru should stay away from. He’s good at avoiding the general schizophrenia of UCLA, Cal (and more on the Bears in a moment), and Clemson, except when he’s not—like last week, when the Tigers rose up and gouged fellow ACC underachiever Florida State in the eye as 1.5-point favorites. Eye-poke aside, we did not see that coming.
And speaking of Cal, just when you thought the Bears were reverting to their traditional schizophrenic mediocrity, they rose up last week and poked the Louisville Cardinals in the eye—as 18.5-point underdogs. This is revealing because over the last two seasons, there have been 18 losses among conference opponents by outright favorites giving 15 points or more. Two of those belong to Louisville, which tends to depress the stock of rising coach Jeff Brohm for one of the veritable plethora of higher-profile jobs opening up every week.
Here, we’re not exactly jumping on Clemson’s bandwagon; even after last week, how could we embrace a team that is 4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS, doesn’t have a marquee win on the slate, and is mediocre-to-awful in most defensive metrics?
The Tigers’ run defense is reliable as ever (106 yards per game), but we’re not in on either Louisville QB Miller Moss or Clemson’s one-time Heisman hopeful Cade Klubnik to stay out of their own way.
Best Bets: Louisville -3 (-110) or Under-50.5 (-105, both at BetMGM)
Early to Rise Means Early to Run
Both of these teams have something to play for. In the West Virginia Mountaineers’ case, it’s bowl eligibility; they have to win their final two games for that to happen. For the Arizona State Sun Devils, they have to keep winning and hope mayhem breaks out ahead of them for their slim hopes of repeating as Big 12 champions to play out.
What awaits them Saturday is an early (10 a.m. local time) start in Tempe, which figures to wreak some havoc on both teams out of the gate. That, in turn, plays into what figures to be a rushing rockfight between two teams that like to run the ball.
West Virginia is eighth nationally in rushing attempts per game (46.2). Behind backup QB Jeff Sims, who racked up 228 rushing yards and three all-purpose TDs against Iowa State two weeks ago, the Sun Devils have a top-30 rushing attack (186.8 yards per game) and are top-40 in rushing attempts (39).
The difference, as it often is, comes on defense. The Mountaineers can’t stop the run; teams are bulldozing them for nearly 150 yards a game on the ground and 400 yards total. This neatly explains why West Virginia surrenders nearly 30 points a game (102nd among FBS teams). Multi-purpose QBs like Sims, Utah’s Devon Dampier, and BYU’s Bear Bachmeier are the Mountaineers’ kryptonite. Even at this early time, kryptonite prevails, although if you’re betting the spread, you want in now, since the number is creeping nearly to its value threshold.
Best Bet: Arizona State -11.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Gator Bait on the Menu
Let us be succinct. The Florida Gators are a hot mess. How hot and how messy? Losing 38-7 to perennial SEC bottom-feeder Kentucky last week. Benching QB D.J. Lagway, who threw three interceptions last week, five in his last three games, and 12 for the season.
The Gators can’t cover a spread; they’re 3-6 ATS. They can’t win games against nearly anyone of consequence; they’re 3-6 SU with a shocking victory over Texas at home as the only bright spot to a horrible season in Gainesville. Their other victories? Against Long Island University and SEC doormat Mississippi State. And since firing coach Billy Napier, Florida’s defense has regressed, allowing nearly 28 points a game
That’s how hot and how messy.
Somehow, Florida has won the last three meetings, including last year’s 24-17 victory as 13-point underdogs. We’re sure this hasn’t escaped the attention of Ole’ Miss coach Lane Kiffin, who—coincidentally—is a leading candidate to take over the Gators’ shambolic program. Just as we’re sure the Rebels want to keep their path to the College Football Playoff alive and well. And just as we’re sure that the Rebels’ No. 4-ranked offense (489.4 yards per game) and No. 8 passing attack (305.5 yards per game) will have its way with the Gators, especially at home.
Best Bet: Ole’ Miss -15.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
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