It was tempting. Just sitting there as what appears to be a gimme. Yes, we’re talking about the vaunted, loved, and always welcomed Service Academy Under.
This week, Army visits Air Force in a matchup where the Under has cashed the last 10 times. Since 2003, the Under has cashed 79.7 percent of the time (51-13-3). And this year, the total is set at 48.5.
And we aren’t touching it.
This year, Army is 6-1 to the Over. Air Force, with its historically bad defense that hasn’t given up fewer than 21 points in its last six games, is also 6-1. Both teams have been in numerous shootouts this year, and both—especially Air Force—have actually incorporated passing into their triple-option offensives.
We can’t believe it either. As a result, we’re staying away from that usual go-to and looking at another triple-option of games that offer better value—including two featuring teams you probably don’t have on your wagering radar.
Last week: 1-2. Season: 12-13 (ATS)
Meet—and Bet on—Your Louisville Cardinals
Since you’re likely unaware of them, let’s introduce you to the Louisville Cardinals. They happen to be ranked 16th in the nation, are 6-1 and own a victory over then-No. 2-ranked Miami. Why Louisville Coach Jeff Brohm isn’t a candidate for the plethora of higher-profile jobs opening on a weekly basis is mind-boggling—along with a question for another time.
A question we can address this time is motivation. At 6-1, with that lone loss to a Virginia team that is officially legitimate, the Cardinals have plenty of motivation to not view this as a trap game. They get Cal at home next week, before a crucial two-game stretch against Clemson and at SMU. Any rake-steps along the way, and Louisville can probably kiss off a spot in the College Football Playoff.
The Virginia Tech Hokies, meanwhile, are 3-5 and 3-7 ATS in their last 10. That does include last week’s 42-34 overtime upset of Cal as 6-point underdogs. But the Hokies’ defense surrenders 30 points a game and hasn’t allowed fewer than 21 to anyone outside of outmanned Wofford.
Yes, 10.5 points is a lot to give on the road for a team that allows 25 points per game in the ACC. And Virginia Tech showed plenty of moxie last week. But Cal does not have Louisville’s defense, which is top-20 nationally in several categories. Nor does Cal have Louisville’s resume, one that—above all—has more to play for.
Best Bet: Louisville -10.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Volunteer for This Wager
Remember last week, when we were rhapsodizing about the Oklahoma Sooners’ defense? How it was ranked among the nation’s best in seven categories? Well… Ole Miss’ offense rhapsodized to the tune of 431 yards and 34 points, easily winning as 4.5-point underdogs.
Now, the Sooners and their—yes—still No. 1-ranked defense in yards, yards per play, passing yards and passing attempts come into Knoxville against a Tennessee Volunteers team running on all offensive cylinders. QB Joey Aguilar pilots an offense averaging 45.5 points per game (second nationally) and seven yards per play (12th). He’s completed 66 percent of his passes for 2,344 yards and 18 TDs. His 321 passing yards per gams is third in the nation.
The Sooners allow 12.5 points a game (fifth). But that number jumps to 28.5 points when playing ranked SEC teams (Texas and Ole Miss). One-time Heisman front-runner QB John Mateer hasn’t found his rhythm since returning from hand surgery. He’s gone six straight games without multiple TD passes and has faced criticism about his decision-making internally and externally.
Oklahoma is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games and 1-3-1 in its last five. Playing a hot SEC team on the road with a struggling QB isn’t the cure for what ails the Sooners. But it is for your bankroll.
Best Bet: Tennessee -3 (-110 at BetMGM)
Some Respect for Cincinnati–Some
Here’s another team probably off your radar—the Cincinnati Bearcats. Yes, we faded them earlier this year against Iowa State—to our regret, after the Bearcats pulled off a 38-30 victory as 1-point favorites. Catching you up, Cincinnati is ranked 17th and riding a seven-game winning streak after a season-opening 20-17 loss to Nebraska as 6-point underdogs.
That was the first of six covers for the Bearcats, who are 7-3 ATS in their last 10. They’ve covered as 1-point favorites and 48.5-point favorites (a 70-0 bludgeoning of Northwestern State). Cincinnati is 5-0 in the Big 12, QB Brendan Sorsby (1,823 yards, 20 TDs, one INT, and a Big-12 passer rating of 172.5), and yet, respect isn’t forthcoming for the Bearcats.
Especially this week against a 24th-ranked Utah Utes team that welcomes ESPN’s College GameDay to Salt Lake City. The Utes are top 20 in seven defensive categories, and Sorsby is rather pedestrian against ranked teams, completing only 52 percent of his passes and throwing only two TDs. Utah is 6-2 SU this year and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
We’re not saying Utah will squander its ESPN College GameDay close-up; ESPN gives Utah an 80.6 percent chance to win. But we are saying that the Utes are 2-3 when the Four Letter drops by for College GameDay. And we’re saying the Bearcats will get some respect with a cover.
Best Bet: Cincinnati +8.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
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