We’ll come clean here. Last week, we thought about taking Penn State and giving the 24.5 points to the program that is making the greatest venue in college football—the Rose Bowl—smell like a rotting corpse. Yes, we’re talking about you, UCLA.
And when we talk about UCLA, we do so mindful of the Bruins’ schizophrenic tendencies to play out of their minds just when you write them off. Which is why we avoided taking the Nittany Lions in what looked like a can’t-miss game.
Which—as we all know—missed.
Instead, we relished another decent week, taking Virginia and the points against Louisville and staying on Miami’s bandwagon in the Hurricanes’ victory over Florida State. We did not see Iowa State’s solid defense getting shredded for 31 points and 342 yards in the first half against Cincinnati. But the Cyclones made it interesting in the second half before falling 38-30.
We draw the curtain on the first half of the college football season with two of our three games floating under many radar screens, illustrating why college football offers wagering value and opportunity like few other sports.
Last week: 2-1. Season: 10-9.
Run to the Window with the Rebels
You’ll notice we conveniently ignored one of our favorite trends last week: the Service Academy Under. It wasn’t an accident. Air Force and Navy combined for 65 points and 977 yards in the Midshipmen’s 34-31 shootout.
Why did we avoid it? Yes, Navy has a prolific offense, illustrated by QB Blake Horvath setting a program record with 469 yards of total offense. He did so against an Air Force defense that is truly abysmal. How abysmal? The Falcons are dead last among the 136 FBS schools in points allowed per game (37.8), yards allowed (476), yards per play (7.7), passing yards allowed (312), passing yards per attempt (10.7), and QB rating allowed (an eye-watering 183.2). In no defensive category are the Falcons better than 118th.
Now, here comes UNLV QB Anthony Colandrea, who comes in with 1,042 yards and eight TDs, along with 261 yards and a score on the ground. The Virginia expat is the first UNLV QB to be named Mountain West Offensive Player of the Week twice in one season, guiding a Running Rebels’ offense to an average of 35.6 points per game and a healthy 6.4 yards per play.
Undefeated UNLV is 4-1 ATS this season, and while the Running Rebels have shown an aversion to cold weather, this game is in the desert. But you won’t thirst for points in this one.
Best Bet: UNLV -6 (-110 at Caesars)
Tigers Flip the Script
On the surface, this looks like a no-brainer. Alabama is 5-0 SU against Missouri and 4-1 ATS, with an average victory margin of 28.6 points. The Tigers came within 20 points just once—a 38-19 loss five years ago.
But let’s spelunk here. The Crimson Tide’s 30-14 victory over Vanderbilt gave them a back-door cover, courtesy of Jam Miller’s 20-yard touchdown scamper with 1:01 left. Until then, Alabama struggled to put away the pesky Commodores.
There’s more than recency bias in play here. Alabama’s rushing defense isn’t up to the Crimson Tide’s usual high bar. It’s yielding a pedestrian 155 yards (86th) and 4.7 yards per carry (103rd). This plays right into the legs and feed of Missouri QB Beau Pribula—arguably the most underrated QB in the country—and RB Ahmad Hardy (730 yards, nine TDs, 7.1 yards per carry), who led the nation in rushing through Week 6. Hardy has cracked the 100-yard mark in each of the Tigers’ five games, and his 544 yards after contact leads the Power 4 Conferences.
Pribula, meanwhile, leads the SEC in completion percentage (75.9%) to go with his 1,203 passing yards and nine TDs. Not to be forgotten are his 197 yards and three TDs on the ground.
Add a fired-up Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium crowd, and all the pieces are in place for a memorable upset. Note the line and bet the Tigers only at +3 or better, even if you have to pay extra juice.
Best Bet: Missouri +3.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
New Pick on Old Dominion
Yes, we’re going deep here, but you’ll love taking the trip.
Dive with us into the biggest sleeper team in the country—Old Dominion. Unless you live in Virginia, rabidly follow the Sun Belt Conference or are related to a soon-to-be scalding-hot coaching prospect in Ricky Rahne, you probably don’t know that the Monarchs are 4-1, with that loss being a respectable 13-point setback to No. 8 Indiana.
After that, ODU rolled up four wins in a row, including a 45-26 thrashing of Virginia Tech. The Monarchs are 4-1 ATS and behind QB Colton Joseph, average 498 yards a game (10th), a nation’s best 6.8 yards per rush and 7.8 yards per play (fifth). Joseph is averaging 9.8 yards per pass, throwing for 1,215 yards and 12 TDs on a 65.3% completion clip. For context, Joseph threw for 1,627 yards for the 2024 season.
But it’s Marshall, you say? Aren’t the Thundering Herd always good, you say? Well, this isn’t your normal Thundering Herd team of yore. Marshall’s defense is surrendering points and yards in chunks, allowing 31 points a game (115th) and 379 yards (83rd). That, along with an ugly 14.9 yards per completion (133rd). Marshall gave up 51 points to Louisiana-Lafayette last week, 28 to a terrible Middle Tennessee State team, and 21 in a loss to Missouri State—a first-year FBS team.
This is all we need to see here.
Best Bet: ODU –14.5 (-110 at Caesars)
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