One of my favorite parts of the online sports betting summer season is NFL win totals. After the schedule is released, I love to comb through the market, looking for dramatic changes in numbers between last year’s records and this year’s NFL futures market.
NFL win totals became available at sportsbooks in May. Unsurprisingly, the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, and Cincinnati Bengals have the highest win total at 11.5. The Arizona Cardinals have the lowest win total at 5.5, which may be an overreaction.
Now that sportsbooks have released the full slate of win totals for the 2023 NFL betting season, it’s time to spend the next few months examining and re-examining every number.
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NFL Futures: Examining the Win Totals Market
Everything about the NFL is designed to force teams toward a record somewhere between 9-8 and 7-10. The NFL Draft, the salary cap, pretty much every core boundary in the sport, promotes widespread parity.
As a result, most teams have a win total at or near 8.5. This year, at BetMGM, 21 of the 32 teams have a win total within one win of .500.
Successful NFL futures bettors can identify a handful of teams in this giant jumble and establish some preseason positions. True professionals can use those as in-season hedge positions.
Below, I’ve created a helpful spreadsheet of all 32 NFL win totals. I’ve also included the current vigs for their win totals.
NFL Win Totals
Team 2022 Wins Win Total Over Vig Under Vig
| Chiefs | 14 | 11.5 | -130 | +110 |
| Bengals | 12 | 11.5 | +105 | -125 |
| 49ers | 13 | 10.5 | -140 | +115 |
| Eagles | 14 | 11.5 | +100 | -120 |
| Bills | 13 | 10.5 | -140 | +115 |
| Jaguars | 9 | 9.5 | -150 | +125 |
| Ravens | 10 | 10.5 | -105 | -125 |
| Cowboys | 12 | 10 | -110 | -110 |
| Jets | 7 | 9.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Lions | 9 | 9.5 | -145 | +120 |
| Chargers | 10 | 9.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Saints | 7 | 9 | -110 | -110 |
| Dolphins | 9 | 9.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Browns | 7 | 9.5 | +110 | -130 |
| Steelers | 9 | 9 | -110 | -115 |
| Seahawks | 9 | 8.5 | -150 | +125 |
| Vikings | 13 | 8.5 | -140 | +115 |
| Falcons | 7 | 8.5 | -145 | +120 |
| Broncos | 5 | 8.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Giants | 9 | 7.5 | -105 | -115 |
| Patriots | 8 | 7.5 | -105 | -115 |
| Panthers | 7 | 7.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Bears | 3 | 7.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Titans | 7 | 7.5 | +100 | -120 |
| Packers | 8 | 7.5 | -120 | +100 |
| Raiders | 6 | 5.5 | -120 | -110 |
| Commanders | 8 | 6.5 | +110 | -130 |
| Colts | 4 | 6.5 | -130 | +110 |
| Rams | 5 | 6.5 | +100 | -120 |
| Buccaneers | 8 | 6.5 | +115 | -135 |
| Texans | 3 | 6 | -110 | -110 |
| Cardinals | 4 | 4.5 | +100 | -120 |
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Win Totals Market Early Observations
Obviously, the most dramatic expected regression is in Minnesota, where the market expects the Minnesota Vikings (13-4 last season) to struggle to remain over .500.
NFL bettors might remember that the Vikings had a statistically aberrational 2022 season, going 11-0 in one-score games. Despite holding a 13-4 record after Week 18, the Vikings had a -3 point differential.
The professional NFL odds handicappers will certainly expect some major regression there.
Other observations
If you believe that the biggest problem with the Denver Broncos last season was Nathaniel Hackett, new head coach Sean Peyton (and the offensive changes he installed) might very well be worth four wins.
The Jets made a major upgrade at quarterback, going from Zach Wilson to Aaron Rodgers. That explains the win total of 9.5. But how much traffic for wins will the Jets face in a loaded AFC?
The Lions remain one of the most popular potential Super Bowl teams in the NFC, but their win total is virtually the same as the nine wins they posted a season ago.
Of the six teams that had win totals of 10.5 or higher, the Jacksonville Jaguars are the one that stands out to me as undeserving. Last year’s playoff performance showed what Jacksonville is capable of, and the AFC South is definitely lousy, but a 10.5 mark seemed awfully high. I’m not surprised the number has come down.
The Cardinals are a mess, and trust in quarterback Kyler Murray is low. But are we sure they should be handicapped like the absolute worst team in football?
The Las Vegas Raiders have been the No. 1 fade target for bettors this summer, with the number dropping from 7.5 at open to 5.5 right now. That’s two full wins!
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