Chiefs, Eagles, Bengals Lead NFL Win Totals for the 2023 Season

One of my favorite parts of the online sports betting summer season is NFL win totals. After the schedule is released, I love to comb through the market, looking for dramatic changes in numbers between last year’s records and this year’s NFL futures market.

NFL win totals became available at sportsbooks in May. Unsurprisingly, the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, and Cincinnati Bengals have the highest win total at 11.5. The Arizona Cardinals have the lowest win total at 5.5, which may be an overreaction.

Now that sportsbooks have released the full slate of win totals for the 2023 NFL betting season, it’s time to spend the next few months examining and re-examining every number.

New customers at BetMGM start with a first-bet offer, up to $1000. Simply sign up, make a deposit and place your first wager. If the bet loses, you’ll receive the amount of your wager back in Bonus bets.

NFL Futures: Examining the Win Totals Market

Everything about the NFL is designed to force teams toward a record somewhere between 9-8 and 7-10. The NFL Draft, the salary cap, pretty much every core boundary in the sport, promotes widespread parity.

As a result, most teams have a win total at or near 8.5. This year, at BetMGM, 21 of the 32 teams have a win total within one win of .500.

Successful NFL futures bettors can identify a handful of teams in this giant jumble and establish some preseason positions. True professionals can use those as in-season hedge positions.

Below, I’ve created a helpful spreadsheet of all 32 NFL win totals. I’ve also included the current vigs for their win totals.

NFL Win Totals

Team                                   2022 Wins                  Win Total                Over Vig                           Under Vig

Chiefs 14 11.5 -130 +110
Bengals 12 11.5 +105 -125
49ers 13 10.5 -140 +115
Eagles 14 11.5 +100 -120
Bills 13 10.5 -140 +115
Jaguars 9 9.5 -150 +125
Ravens 10 10.5 -105 -125
Cowboys 12 10 -110 -110
Jets 7 9.5 -125 +105
Lions 9 9.5 -145 +120
Chargers 10 9.5 -125 +105
Saints 7 9 -110 -110
Dolphins 9 9.5 -110 -110
Browns 7 9.5 +110 -130
Steelers 9 9 -110 -115
Seahawks 9 8.5 -150 +125
Vikings 13 8.5 -140 +115
Falcons 7 8.5 -145 +120
Broncos 5 8.5 -110 -110
Giants 9 7.5 -105 -115
Patriots 8 7.5 -105 -115
Panthers 7 7.5 -125 +105
Bears 3 7.5 -125 +105
Titans 7 7.5 +100 -120
Packers 8 7.5 -120 +100
Raiders 6 5.5 -120 -110
Commanders 8 6.5 +110 -130
Colts 4 6.5 -130 +110
Rams 5 6.5 +100 -120
Buccaneers 8 6.5 +115 -135
Texans 3 6 -110 -110
Cardinals 4 4.5 +100 -120

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Win Totals Market Early Observations

Obviously, the most dramatic expected regression is in Minnesota, where the market expects the Minnesota Vikings (13-4 last season) to struggle to remain over .500.

NFL bettors might remember that the Vikings had a statistically aberrational 2022 season, going 11-0 in one-score games. Despite holding a 13-4 record after Week 18, the Vikings had a -3 point differential.

The professional NFL odds handicappers will certainly expect some major regression there.

 Other observations

If you believe that the biggest problem with the Denver Broncos last season was Nathaniel Hackett, new head coach Sean Peyton (and the offensive changes he installed) might very well be worth four wins.

The Jets made a major upgrade at quarterback, going from Zach Wilson to Aaron Rodgers. That explains the win total of 9.5. But how much traffic for wins will the Jets face in a loaded AFC?

The Lions remain one of the most popular potential Super Bowl teams in the NFC, but their win total is virtually the same as the nine wins they posted a season ago.

Of the six teams that had win totals of 10.5 or higher, the Jacksonville Jaguars are the one that stands out to me as undeserving. Last year’s playoff performance showed what Jacksonville is capable of, and the AFC South is definitely lousy, but a 10.5 mark seemed awfully high. I’m not surprised the number has come down.

The Cardinals are a mess, and trust in quarterback Kyler Murray is low. But are we sure they should be handicapped like the absolute worst team in football?

The Las Vegas Raiders have been the No. 1 fade target for bettors this summer, with the number dropping from 7.5 at open to 5.5 right now. That’s two full wins!

Make your first-time deposit with BetRivers in West Virginia and Pennsylvania and place your first sports wager. If your first wager loses, receive a Free Bet, equal to your stake, up to a maximum of $250. Free Bet will be awarded within 24 Hours of your qualifying wager settling as a loss.


Related Articles

Subscribe to Newsletter

Sign up to receive the latest online gaming and sports betting promotions, news, and information.

History Playbook

On This Day In Sports

August 1, 1972 — Padres first baseman Nate Colbert ties a major league record by belting five home runs off five different pitchers during a doubleheader against the Braves at Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium.

On This Day In Sports

August 3, 2019 — Four Astros pitchers combine for a no-hitter to crush the Mariners 9-0 at Minute Maid Park in Houston. Aaron Sanchez starts and hurls six innings. Will Harris, Joe Biagini, and Chris Devenski each contribute a hitless inning.