If there’s one thing more predictable than the pre-season hypeapalooza in college football, it’s the early-season overreaction to what transpired when the curtain finally opens.
Texas QB Arch Manning. Overrated.
Alabama. In crisis.
LSU. National champions.
Miami. We’re back!
Such is the path we’ve chosen as college football fans. But that doesn’t mean you have to buy into the hype or the overreaction to the hype.
Texas and Manning will be fine, once they’ve had time to digest the defensive puzzle that Ohio State Defensive Coordinator and three-time Super Bowl-winning DC Matt Patricia tormented Manning with.
LSU’s impressive victory at Clemson showed the Tigers finally have something resembling a defense. Whether that defense can sustain itself through one of the most brutal schedules in the country, LSU plays six ranked teams in the SEC, remains to be seen.
The U? Impressive W vs. Notre Dame. But let’s see you win an ACC championship—heretofore undone—first.
And speaking of the ACC, what about Florida State’s dismantling of Alabama as 13 ½-point underdogs? Is there something to a receding Tide here in head coach Kalen DeBoer’s second season in the Tuscaloosa crucible?
We’ll let the pontificators pontificate. Meanwhile, after a good opening week, the Gridiron Guru is back at it, finding the best wagering value opportunities with three games you’ll probably not want to watch for aesthetic purposes.
Last week: 2-1. Season: 2-1.
A Tasty Dish Best Tasted Cold
When it comes to understanding coaching mindsets, one of the eternal verities is knowing that Ole Miss Coach Lane Kiffin has the memory of an elephant. He doesn’t forget slights, real or imagined. Nor does he forget upsets, real and unimagined.
That’s what happened to the Rebels last year, when Kentucky flipped the tables on their dark-horse playoff contender status, beating Ole Miss 20-17 as 15 ½-point underdogs. Do not think Kiffin has let this one get away from his mental Rolodex.
Last week, Ole Miss warmed up for this grudge match by dismantling Georgia State, 63-7, easily covering as 33 ½-point favorites. The Rebels are 5-5 ATS in their last 10, but are 4-2 in their last six. Kentucky, meanwhile, survived a 24-16 scare from Toledo, the class of the MAC. And yet, the Wildcats’ escape did not include an offensive showcase; they were outgained by the Rockets.
Throw all this in the hopper, and this has the potential to get real ugly, real fast.
Best Bet: Ole Miss -10 (-110 at BetMGM)
Don’t Sleep on this Rivalry Opportunity
Remember when betting the Under with Iowa was like an open-air ATM? We do, wistfully and fondly. While our attention went elsewhere, Iowa somehow discovered an offense. The Hawkeyes are 6-4 to the Over in their last 10 games, hitting and passing the total in 10 of their last 14.
And you’d be tempted to dive into this rivalry game backing Iowa, which has won seven of the last nine games in this feral rivalry. You’d be further tempted after watching Iowa import two-time FCS MVP Mark Gronowski, who led South Dakota State to two FCS national titles.
We, however, are tempted by other trends in this series—starting with defense. The last three games in this series featured combined scores of 17, 33, and 39 points. Regardless of Gronowski and Iowa State QB Rocco Becht, who is protected by four returning offensive line starters and WR Chase Sewell in the portal, defense and ball-control are the coin of this rivalry realm.
Best Bet: Under 42 (-110 at Caesars)
Another Street Fight Next Door
Next door to that rivalry, we find another juicy Under. Last week, Nebraska survived a scare against Cincinnati, doing so despite scoring only 20 points and failing to cover as 6-point favorites in its 20-17 slugfest.
And that looks positively incendiary compared to the Akron Zips, who were anything but zippy against Wyoming last week. Akron managed only 228 yards of offense, 3.5 yards per play, and zero points in a 10-0 blanking by the Cowboys.
Neither of these teams managed five yards per play last week. And while we think Nebraska will easily handle the offensively zipless Zips, the Cornhuskers did hold Cincinnati under five yards per play, and were not expecting Nebraska to throw up 50 or 60 here. Nebraska fans aside, we may not want to watch this game. But we will want to head to the window after this street fight is over.
Best Bet: Under-47 (-110 at Caesars)
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