It took us the entire season and some audacious bets down the stretch. But we finally broke .500.
Even putting aside the trip on a runaway coaching carousel, the 2025 College Football season was one of the wildest and least predictable seasons in recent memory. A five-loss Duke team not only wedging its way into the ACC title game over two-loss Miami, Pitt, Georgia Tech, and SMU, but winning the ACC?
Notre Dame losing its first two games to Miami and Texas A&M by a combined four points—then running the table… only to be given the Heisman stiff-arm by the College Football Playoff Committee?
And speaking of Heismans, who had Cal ex-pat Fernando Mendoza—who came out of high school being recruited by only Yale (?)—winning the most prestigious individual trophy in college sports? And guiding Indiana to the only undefeated record in the FBS in the process?
That’s Indiana, last seen winning a Big Ten outright title in (checks the Wayback Machine) 1967.
So now, we’re into bowl season and Year 2 of the College Football Playoff. The bowl season began late last week. This will be the first week where the Gridiron Guru will break down games played between Saturday and Christmas Day. Each week, we’ll do the same with either bowl games or the College Football Playoff. We’ll follow the CFP and bowls throughout December and into January.
Two weeks ago: 4-1. Season (ATS): 24-22.
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Here, we find a Memphis Tigers team that is leaking oil like a ’59 Rambler. The Tigers lost three straight games outright and ATS on the run-in. We also find Memphis in the hands of defensive coordinator Reggie Howard, who takes over for the Arkansas-bound Ryan Silverfield.
The Tigers do have an OK defense (22.5 points and 361 yards per game allowed), compared to the North Carolina State Wolfpack’s porous unit that allows 421 yards (127th) and nearly 29 points per game (102nd). But here’s what else we find. According to VSiN analyst Steve Makinen, rookie head coaches like Howard are 9-20 SU and 6-23 ATS in bowl games when facing a coach who has 10+ bowl games on their CV.
NC State coach Dave Doeren is coaching his 11th bowl game. Never mind the fact that the Wolfpack has lost its last five bowl games. Follow the oil slick to the window.
Best Bet: NC State -5.5 (-110 at Caesars) and Over-58.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
CFP Playoff—Alabama (9) at Oklahoma (8)
Here, we find what should be the most competitive game of the four opening-round CFP games. So much so that this line has ping-ponged from Alabama favored by 1.5 to the Sooners being favored by that same spread—and everything in between depending on the book. If the Crimson Tide holds serve as favorites, it will be the first time a road team has been favored in the CFP.
When these two met a month ago, Oklahoma parlayed three Bama turnovers and a door-slamming 75 yards of rushing offense allowed into a 23-21 victory. This masked the fact that Alabama outgained the Sooners, 406-212.
You may call Alabama a CFP unworthy party-crasher (and you’d be right). But Oklahoma hasn’t scored more than 17 points in its last two games against LSU and Missouri, and averaged only 23.5 in SEC play. Even as good as the Sooners’ defense is (ranked 6th in points and 7th in yards allowed per game), there’s no way a statistical freak-show like a team being outgained by nearly 200 yards and winning happens again. Nor will the Crimson Tide—who are 6-4 SU on the road under Kalen DeBoer—turn over the ball that freely.
Best Bet: Alabama +1 (-120 at BetMGM)
CFP Playoff Miami (10) at Texas A&M (7)
Before mid-November, the Texas A&M Aggies looked as invincible as any team in the country. Then, South Carolina arrived in College Station, built a 30-3 halftime lead, and showed cracks in the Aggies’ armor not seen since their 41-40 survival test against Notre Dame two months earlier. Put aside the Aggies’ spirited comeback and 31-30 victory; Texas exposed the same cracks two weeks later, beating A&M by 10 points.
The Aggies are the better team. But are they the better team right now? The numbers illustrate otherwise; since losing to SMU, 26-20, on November 1, Miami curb-stomped its next four opponents (Syracuse, NC State, Virginia Tech, and Pitt) by an average of 27.5 points. Hurricanes’ QB Carson Beck has thrown 10 TDs to one INT in those four games.
Even though Makinen points out that in games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, the home team has won 59.1 percent of the time, A&M is 4-9 ATS as home favorites under Mike Elko. We’re not saying the Aggies won’t win. We’re not saying they will cover if they do.
Best Bet: Miami +3.5 (-105 at Caesars)
CFP—James Madison (12) at Oregon (5)
As a devoted Seinfeld fan, the Gridiron Guru can’t resist pointing out that James Madison, which owes its CFP playoff berth to the ACC’s chaos and a tiebreaker harder to split than the atom,” has a RB named Wayne Knight. This Wayne Knight, who shares the same name as the actor who played Jerry Seinfeld’s hilarious nemesis, Newman, said “hello” with 1,263 yards and nine TDs.
Now that we got the comedy out of the way, this one won’t be nearly as jolly for James Madison, who are clearly in over their heads, skis and everything else you can think of here. The Oregon Ducks allow 4.2 yards per play (6th), one of seven top-10-ranked defensive categories. Meanwhile, they limit teams to 3.2 yards per carry on the ground, which bodes ill for the Dukes’ chances of gaining 300 yards on the ground for a sixth time.
Here’s where we point out that Oregon is a covering machine. Aside from being 3-2-1 as a double-digit favorite this year, the Ducks are 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS, coping with a 19-point or more spread as a home non-conference favorite, according to Makinen. They are 5-2 as a home favorite this year, and since losing to Indiana October 11, only USC (27 points) has scored more than 16 points.
Oregon’s defense says “Hello, Newman” to Knight as the Ducks and JMU bid farewell to UCLA-bound head coach Bob Chesney.
Best Bet: Oregon -21.5 (-105 at BetMGM).
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