If you’re a Star Wars geek who happens to be a college football fan—and yes, that genus does exist—you’ll appreciate calling this week, “Emperor Palpatine Week.”
Like the Star Wars arch-villain, noted for his gleeful exhortation to “let the hate flow,” Rivalry Week is the week you let that hate flow. Because your blood rival is letting his hate flow toward you.
We got an appetizer-like taste of that last week, when underdog Stanford beat its blood rival, Cal (getting Golden Bears Coach Justin Wilcox fired as a byproduct), Yale upset its eternal rival, Harvard, and Duke beat North Carolina in the Battle of Tobacco Road. This week, however, comes the main course—a college football rivalry smorgasbord covering every region and time zone.
Among the choicest delicacies:
- Georgia-Georgia Tech
- Texas-Texas A&M
- Vanderbilt-Tennessee
- Alabama-Auburn
- Mississippi-Mississippi State
- UCLA-USC
- Oregon-Washington
- And, of course, Ohio State-Michigan
Let’s let the hate flow.
Last week: 2-1. Season: 18-20 (ATS).
Defense Flips The Recent Script
Yes, we know what you’re thinking. Hasn’t Michigan won the last four of these? Haven’t they covered every time, including as 19.5-point underdogs in last year’s 13-10 shocker at the Horseshoe in Columbus? Aren’t the Wolverines a better team than the one that pulled off that upset?
Well, we’ll answer all of those in the affirmative—as we’re betting that trend isn’t our friend for this year’s edition of one of the greatest rivalries in all sports. Why we’re bucking that trend with the Buckeyes isn’t hard to figure out.
Defense. Specifically, Ohio State’s No. 1-ranked defense in yards (212.6), yards per play (a miserly 3.9), completion yardage (8.4), and yards per passing attempt (5.1). The Buckeyes allow only 132 yards through the air a game (3rd) and have more interceptions (six) than touchdown passes allowed (five).
So, Michigan should run the ball with RB Jordan Marshall to set up freshman QB Bryce Underwood’s passing game? Ummm, how, considering Marshall is playing through a shoulder injury while facing a Buckeyes’ run defense ranked fourth in yards per game (81.4) and sixth in yards per carry (2.8)? Underwood, meanwhile, is completing only 62.2 percent of his passes.
As you’re digesting that, we’ll take a brief segue to point out Ohio State QB Julian Sayin (the current third favorite to win the Heisman Trophy at +400 according to BetMGM) owns the highest single-season completion rate in college football history—79.4%. Even with Ohio State Coach Ryan Day’s well-publicized rake-steps against his northern neighbor, we’re not seeing how this goes any other way.
A quick aside: last year’s 13-10 Michigan victory—which wound up comfortably Under the 41.5-point total—ended a nine-game Over streak. Taking in all the above, do with that what you will.
Best bet: Ohio State -10 (-110 at BetMGM)
Like Points? Tune Into This Tennessee Tussle
The Tennessee Volunteers have won the last six meetings, with last year’s 13-point win (36-23) being the closest of the six. They haven’t lost to Vanderbilt at home since 2017. But this isn’t your father’s Vanderbilt Commodores.
Not with QB Diego Pavia (2,924 yards, 26 TDs, 71.8 percent, +550 to win the Heisman) and not with the Commodores on the cusp of a College Football Playoff berth. They’re also on the cusp of winning 10 games for the first time in program history—a history dating back to 1890.
We’re expecting more history with this one, courtesy of Pavia and Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar and courtesy of some bad passing defenses. Vanderbilt’s secondary is hideous: ranking 117th in completion percentage (67.3 percent), 120th in passing yards allowed (244.7), 130th in passing attempts allowed (34.3), and 135th in completions allowed (23.1).
Tennessee’s secondary is merely bad: ranking 103rd in passing yardage (260.7), 115th in passing attempts allowed (36.2), and 123rd in completion percentage allowed (66.9 percent).
You could take either side of the 2.5-point spread, favoring the host Volunteers. But over the past 3 ½ years, Tennessee averages 46.3 points per game at home, according to VSiN analyst Steve Makinen. That leads the nation. So with these defenses and these quarterbacks, we’re taking the side of points. Lots and lots of points.
Best Bet: Over-65.5 (-107 at Caesars)
Jumping Off Georgia Tech’s Bandwagon
We just stopped patting ourselves on the back for shorting 2-point favorite Georgia Tech in the Yellow Jackets’ inconvenient 42-28 loss to Pitt last week. So why should we stop fading them now?
We won’t. Especially not this week against a Georgia Bulldogs team that will have an answer to every question posed by the Georgia Tech offense. While this game is at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta and while it took the Bulldogs eight overtimes to put away Georgia Tech last year, we don’t see any scenario that keeps Georgia from a return trip to Atlanta for the SEC title game next week.
Why? Start with the Bulldogs’ defense, which allows only 3 yards a carry (12th), a stingy 92.5 yards a game (fifth), and 307 yards total (20th). This should neuter Georgia Tech’s preferred running game and force QB Haynes King—one of the best multi-purpose QBs in the country—into going airborne more than he’s comfortable doing.
And we haven’t mentioned the Yellow Jackets’ defense, which has been devoid of sting all season, but particularly in the last three games, when Georgia Tech has allowed an eye-watering 41.3 points, 510.7 yards, and a 47.2 percent third-down conversion rate. This explains why the Yellow Jackets are 115th in yards allowed (409), 112th in yards per play (6.0), 108th in passing yards allowed (243.2), and 100th in rushing yards allowed (166).
Georgia has covered five of the last six weeks, with spreads ranging from 3.5 to 20. This line opened with the Bulldogs favored by 11.5 and bounced with juice to its current line. Get in now, before the line and the juice jump further.
Best Bet: Georgia -13.5 (-115 at BetMGM or Caesars).
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