You had one job, San Jose State. One job. And bettors across the country remain amazed/amused/angered you screwed it up.
You’re giving 14 ½ points to visiting Boise State. You take a 14-0 lead and you’re still comfortably covering early in the fourth quarter. Then, your standout quarterback—who threw for 446 yards and three touchdowns—throws a pick-6 that caps a 42-7 run and puts the bow on a 42-21 Broncos victory.
Oh, but it’s worse for you, Spartans’ bettors. San Jose State has it first-and-goal from the Boise State 2 with 51 seconds left. Three plays later, Spartans QB Walker Egret gets sacked for a 13-yard loss as the clock hits 0:00.
The beat was so bad that ESPN SportsCenter maestro Scott Van Pelt not only featured it on his popular “Bad Beats” segment but took his rant about it all the way to the commercial that ended the segment.
Seeing that it capped a 0-3 ATS week, the Gridiron Guru had his own rant about his worst beat of the year.
Last week: 0-3. Season 8-16.
We’re Sun Worshiping These Devils
While you were watching the Adventures of BYU, featuring the Cougars navigating tightrope after tightrope until Kansas wobbled the rope and dumped the Cougars into their first loss of the season, Arizona State was quietly putting together a season that could put the Sun Devils into the Big 12 title game.
While you weren’t paying attention to the Sun Devils, they were winning five of their last six games—including their last three. That included last week’s 24-14 vanquishing of Kansas State as 7.5-point underdogs. In that three-game stretch, QB Sam Leavitt has thrown nine TDs to zero interceptions.
Leavitt now takes his shot against a BYU defense that is sixth nationally in completion percentage allowed (53 percent) and 18th in yards per completion (10.4). The Cougars are a top-20 defense nationally (315 yards per game). But this hides a subpar rush defense (58th/139.2 yards per game and one outside the top 80 in EPA/Rush) that plays right into ASU RB Cam Skattebo’s fleet legs.
Skattebo has run for 1,074 yards and 11 TDs. He’s run for at least 153 yards in three of his last five games and is averaging 7.2 yards per carry at home.
BYU is 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season. ASU is 8-2 ATS this year, including 5-1 in its last six. Something’s got to give with someone falling through the trap door this week and we’re not shy about who that is.
Best Bet: ASU -3 (-110 at Caesars)
Nothing Cavalier About These Mustangs
Betting against the Cavaliers as home underdogs comes with its own dangers because Virginia is 6-2 ATS as home dogs the last three years. This year, despite a 5-5 record, the Cavaliers are 6-3-1 ATS, meaning even when they lose, contrarian betters on the Cavaliers often win.
That said, do not misconstrue Virginia as some kind of juggernaut. Last week’s 35-14 drubbing by Notre Dame should have illustrated this in 3D living color. Virginia’s defense is mediocre against the run (63rd/143 yards per game), bad in yards allowed (99th/401.1) and worse against the pass (118th/258.0). The Cavaliers surrender 12.6 yards per pass. They allow the third-most yards per game in the ACC.
All of this leaves SMU’s Mustangs mouth-watering at the havoc they can wreak, especially since the Mustangs can capture the ACC title if they win out. And boasting a balanced offense led by RB Brashard Smith (1,026 yards, 12 TDs) and QB Kevin Jennings (2,198 yards, 15 TDs), SMU poses more trouble to that overtaxes Virginia defense.
SMU is 6-4 ATS this season, but 1-2 as a road favorite. Again, sometimes you have to live dangerously when it comes to trends. And every other statistical trend points to the high-powered offensive horsepower of these Mustangs.
Best Bet: SMU -9.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Going Over With Underwhelming Teams
Once upon a time, the USC-UCLA game often decided the Pac 10/12 title. You listened to the dulcet, distinctive tones of the iconic Keith Jackson bringing this to you on ABC from the LA Coliseum or Rose Bowl, where titans and Heisman Trophy winners roamed the grounds.
Today? Two Big 10 also-rans with 3-5 conference records, zero Heisman contenders and cranky fan bases play for little more than L.A. pride and bragging rights. Oh sure, 5-5 USC can become bowl-eligible if it takes out its crosstown rival. But how does that play with a fan base that watched the Trojans blow fourth-quarter leads in all 10 games this year? Or go 0-4 on the road in its Big 10 maiden voyage?
Not well. So not well that USC coach Lincoln Riley—he of the uncomfortably warm seat–replaced QB Miller Moss with freshman Jayden Maiava last week. Maiava led the Trojans to a 28-20 victory over Nebraska in a game the Cornhuskers nearly pulled out. They were driving into the red zone, before CB Greedy Vance Jr. intercepted Dylan Raiola in the end zone.
Behind first-year head coach Deshaun Foster, UCLA has had a longer leash this year, one lengthened by the fact UCLA comes into this one winners of three of its last four after a 1-5 start. The Bruins haven’t been favored since surviving a 16-13 nailbiter against Hawaii as 13.5-point favorites in their season opener and not even USC’s mediocre defense inspires confidence in taking the 4.5 points here. Not with UCLA conceding 27.1 points per game and allowing opposing QBs to complete 66.7 percent of their pass attempts (124th nationally).
So we’re taking USC? Not hardly. We don’t trust the Trojans to not spit up another fourth-quarter lead. What we do trust here is points, especially since the Over has hit in five of the last six years. It’s easy to trust the Over when the scores have been 38-20, 48-45, 62-33, 43-38, 52-35 and 34-27. In the last six years, only last year’s 38-20 UCLA victory found the Under.
Best Bet: Over-51.5 (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
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