It’s been three weeks since the Gridiron Guru tackled the college football landscape in search of those hidden nuggets of value-meeting-opportunity. But things are starting to turn around on the ATS front.
One element that may help that turnaround is a devotion to Dogs—Underdogs. And we have three live ones this week who may not win outright, but should sneak in under the number.
In each case, pay attention to the lines. Especially in the Tennessee-Georgia game, that line has bounced around like a pinball. There may be better numbers ahead.
Last time: 2-1. Season: 8-13.
Will These Dogs Hunt?
The last time Georgia lost between the Athens hedges was five years ago, October 12, 2019, to be precise. That’s when South Carolina came into Athens and tweaked the Bulldogs. So why does this feel like all the pressure is on the Bulldogs?
Because it is.
After spitting up a 28-10 loss to Ole Miss last week, Georgia is playing for its playoff life. Pre-season Heisman Trophy favorite Carson Beck has been more stiff than Heisman-caliber stiff-armed this year and the Bulldogs have turned the ball over three times in each of their last three games—insanely uncharacteristic for a Kirby Smart-coached team.
Right now, you have no idea which Georgia team you’re going to see: the one that dismantled Texas and Clemson and the one that has beaten Tennessee by an average of 26.4 points in its last seven meetings—or the one humiliated by Ole Miss.
What you are going to see is a 7-2 Georgia team that has been the ATS victim of its own reputation. The Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games, 3-7 ATS in their last 10. Tennessee isn’t exactly an ATS dynamo; the Vols have covered once in their last five games.
But 8-1 Tennessee hasn’t given up more than 19 points in a game this season—the 19 it surrendered in a 19-14 loss to Arkansas. The Vols are top-10 nationally in yards per play (3rd), yards (5th), yards per rush (5th) and rushing yards (9th). A victory here keeps the Vols firmly in the SEC title chase.
Because Georgia has had trouble running the football; it’s tied for last in the SEC with a mere seven 20-plus-yard runs, and because Tennessee managed only 25 (vs. Oklahoma) and 14 (vs. Arkansas) on the SEC road this year, you could take the Under 48 here. And yes, Georgia will probably rise up and take the Vols down at home, especially since Smart is a savant at getting his team to rebound after losses. But getting 10 points as an SEC A-lister? We’ll take it.
Best Bet: Tennessee +10 (-110 at BetMGM)
Setting Sail With the Middies
OK, getting poleaxed, 51-14, by Notre Dame is expected. After all, you’re Navy. You’re supposed to get poleaxed by Notre Dame. But following that with a 24-10 loss to Rice? When you’re a 6-1 Navy team enjoying one of your best seasons this century, you don’t lose to a 2-6 Rice team as 13-point favorites.
Regardless of where the Midshipmen are—and where they are is back afloat after taking apart South Florida 28-7 last week as 4.5-point favorites—this game has outside implications for the College Football Playoff. Yes, if you’re either of these two, you’ve got to run the table and hope someone—anyone—figures out how to stop Boise State. But the serious starts here.
And it starts with a powerful Tulane offense averaging 41 points and nearly 228 yards rushing a game behind RB Makhi Hughes (1,209 yards, 13 TDs). And that’s the way to sink Navy—run the ball against a defense ranked 81st in rushing yards allowed (156.3) and 87th in yards allowed per game (386.3).
Yet, there’s something unsettling here about riding the Green Wave. Yes, Tulane is 8-2 winners of eight straight, and unbeaten in the AAC. Yes, it scored fewer than 34 points only once in that string—a 24-10 beating of, yes, Rice.
But under coach Brian Newberry, Navy is 2-1 SU as home underdogs. The Midshipmen have beaten Tulane six of the last seven meetings, including all four at Annapolis. We can’t take our eyes off the fact that while Tulane is the better team on paper, the Green Wave aren’t a good enough team to lay a touchdown on the road to a dangerous opponent. Because we like where the Middies are now.
Best Bet: Navy +7 (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
The Spartans Make A Stand
Speaking of Boise State—which we were above—this is how good the Broncos are. Their only blemish this calendar year was a three-point loss to Oregon at Autzen Stadium in early September. That would be No. 1-ranked Oregon if you’re paying attention.
And when it comes to paying attention, are Heisman voters paying attention to RB Ashton Jeanty? He’s literally running away from everyone: defenders and fellow running back pursuers among the national rushing leaders alike. Jeanty (1,734 yards, 23 TDs) leads the nation by more than 400 yards over his closest pursuers: Central Florida’s RJ Harvey and Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson, who both have 1,328 yards. Jeanty is averaging 7.7 yards per carry and—incredibly enough—has not fumbled this year.
Yes, folks are paying attention to the Broncos—and, by extension—Jeanty, who gashed San Jose State for 167 yards last year. How can’t you pay attention to a team averaging nearly 500 yards of offense (fourth in the nation) and a nation’s best 6.7 yards per carry?
But what few are paying attention to is a Spartans’ team that is unbeaten at home, that allows only 3.7 yards per rush and is 3-2 ATS as an underdog. While Boise State is 9-1 in this series, the last four meetings have been decided by 14 points or less, including a 34-20 San Jose State victory in 2020.
We’re not completely on the Spartans’ bandwagon, but here’s what else we’re paying attention to—the back-door cover at home.
Best Bet: San Jose State +13.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
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