Yes, we are officially deep in the Open-to-Open lull of PGA Tour events, this week bringing us another go-low-or-go-home birdiefest—the John Deere Classic. A tournament sponsored by a tractor maker that produces space-age winning scores.
How space-age? The winning score at the John Deere has surpassed 20-under-par in 11 of the last 15 years. Over the last nine events at the TPC Deere Run, dating to Ryan Moore’s 2016 victory at 22-under, the average winning score is 21.7-under. This includes Davis Thompson’s tournament-record 28-under 256 two years ago.
TPC Deere Run is not a long course, measuring 7,327 yards playing to a par-71. Designed by three-time event champion D.A. Weibring and Chris Gray, the course defends itself with rolling fairways, deep rough, numerous elevation changes and strategic bunkering. You don’t overpower TPC Deere Run. You attack it by hitting fairways, leaving yourself short irons or wedges that your (hopefully) hot putter turns into birdies.
Yes, the John Deere often turns into a putting contest, which rewards players who can rack up birdies with a high Birdie or Better percentage.
All that said, a cursory glance at the winning odds of the last nine winners shows that diving down the odds board often produces juicy results. The average odds of the winner in that span was 111-1, a total boosted by Brian Campbell’s victory at 350-1 last year and Michael Kim’s 2018 victory at 300-1.
The lowest odds of a champion in that span were Moore and Thompson, both at 25-1. This reflects the trend of six of the last 12 champions picking up their first PGA Tour title at this event.
So with that, who do we like this week?
Jacob Bridgeman to Win (+2800 at BetMGM)
Since winning the Genesis and Riviera in February and finishing T5 at The Players in March, Bridgeman hasn’t sustained that level. His best finish since was a T11 at the Canadian Open three weeks ago.
However, Bridgeman may have flipped the switch last week at Hartford, going 66-66 on the weekend to finish T47. Another look at the tournament history here shows that 14 of the last 16 champions had at least one top-5 finish earlier in the season, so Bridgeman checks that box.
He also checks the boxes of a strong par-5 scorer, which is essential at TPC Deere Run, with its three reachable par-5s. Bridgeman is second in the field at par-5 scoring (98-under). He’s also second in the field in Birdie or Better Percentage (24.41%), and he finished T5 here last year. This all validates taking a flier on function over form.
Denny McCarthy to Win (+4500) and finish Top 10 (+400, both at BetMGM)
There’s so much to like here, we don’t know where to start. So let’s start with his record at this event: T11-T7=T6-T6. Let’s segue to his scoring in that span, where McCarthy is 68-under, featuring 13 of 16 rounds in the 60s.
Need more? How about McCarthy’s +1.21 True Strokes Gained at TPC Deere Run. His co-leading the field in Greens in Regulation last week at Hartford, where he went 66-65 on the weekend to finish T14. That’s one of two McCarthy’s top-15 finishes this season, so the season form could be better.
But McCarthy is 81-under on the par-5s, which is 13th in the field. He’s eighth in Strokes Gained: Putting (1.07), which adds to his appeal this week. McCarthy is as comfortable on these greens as anyone in the field. So feel free to add a Top 20 bet at +200 to your McCarthy ticket list.
Emiliano Grillo to Win (+6600) and finish Top 10 (+550, both at BetMGM)
Here’s another function-over-form play, because a look at Grillo’s 2026 season won’t exactly make you run to the window. He’s missed seven cuts in 16 starts and has one top 10 finish: a T7 at the Valspar Championship in mid-March. Nor will you find solace in his pertinent stats this week, none of which crack the top 20 in this field.
And yet, here’s why we’re talking about Grillo. Did you know this Argentine has two runner-up finishes at TPC Deere Run in his three starts? He also comes in off a T23 at the U.S. Open and a T20 at the Canadian Open the week before. With his record here and the lofty odds, Grillo is a horse for this course and here’s the time to take that flier on him.
And one more we like:
Jackson Suber to Win (+5500 to Win at BetMGM)
And here’s the flip side of Grillo when it comes to course-friendly stats. Suber has torn up the easy courses, is strong in par-5 scoring (fifth in this field) and birdie-or-better percentage (10th) and ranks top 7 in the field for Good Drives, Strokes Gained: Approach and Proximity from 100-150 yards. Just the numbers you want here.
Three weeks ago, Suber was the 54-hole leader at the Canadian Open. He finished T4, his third top-4 finish of the season. One of those came at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, another birdie orgy. He’s another player who will break through and this is a likely place for that to happen.
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