It’s that time of the year when you turn on your TV and find a bowl game you didn’t know existed. What’s a TaxSlayer Gator Bowl? Where did the Bad Mowers Pinstripe Bowl come from, and isn’t that Yankee Stadium? Is Aaron Judge playing tight end?
And the Pop-Tarts Bowl? Why am I suddenly craving sugar?
Those bowls you’ve never heard of, or just heard of, often provide tasty morsels of wagering goodness that won’t send you to the insulin needle. And in our second bowl-week preview, we’ve found three games worth taking a betting bite out of. All three bowl games are to be played on Saturday, December 27.
Each week, the Gridiron Guru will break down either bowl games or the College Football Playoff. We’ll follow the CFP and bowls throughout December and into January.
Last week: 3-2. Season (ATS): 27-24.
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
All you need to know about this one is that the Virginia Cavaliers have their starting QB, Chandler Morris, while the Missouri Tigers don’t have Beau Pribulla, who hit the transfer portal. This means Virginia has a QB playing in his 47th collegiate game, bringing 2,802 yards, 16 TDs, and a 64.6 percent completion percentage into a bowl game.
Meanwhile, Missouri counters with true freshman backup Matt Zollers, who will make his third start of the season.
Who else are the Tigers missing? Well, offensive coordinator Kirby Moore departed to become the head coach at Washington State. And WRs Joshua Manning and Marquis Johnson, who took a combined 57 catches for 658 yards and four TDs into the portal. The defections led Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz to blow off steam at a press conference about how his roster was being raided.
Drinkwitz may want to blow off steam, as his team was anything but steaming down the stretch, going 3-5-1 ATS in its last nine games. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, have relished their underdog role, going 3-1 SU and ATS in that spot.
And lookie here? We find Virginia—starting veteran QB, strong run defense (111 yards per game/23rd), and all as 4-point underdogs. We’ve seen all we need to see here.
Best Bet: Virginia +4 (-109 at Caesars)
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
When the season began, both of these teams expected to be gearing up for playoff games, instead of finding themselves in the Bronx, two days after Christmas. But here they are. And the Gridiron Guru hasn’t had the best of times with Clemson this year, missing all three games he’s picked—or picked against—the Tigers. But bowl season brings not only a new perspective, but a new dynamic when it comes to Clemson.
The Tigers haven’t lost a bowl game outside the New Year’s Day Six since 2010. They have an FBS record of 14 consecutive years with a postseason victory. And even with a 7-5 record—Clemson’s worst since 2010—and numerous players opting out (seven starters on both sides of the ball), the Tigers bring in one key difference: who isn’t opting out: QB Cade Klubnik. The one-time Heisman hopeful threw for 2,750 yards and 16 TDs this year and is using the game as a draft showcase for NFL scouts.
There are more reasons to pick Clemson, starting with head coach Dabo Swinney, who owns a 20-game bowl coaching edge against his counterpart, Penn State interim coach Terry Smith, who took over after the Nittany Lions fired James Franklin mid-season. As VSiN analyst Steve Makinen points out, coaches with more bowl-game experience (10+ games) are 44-27 SU and 45-25-1 ATS.
Putting aside the fact Penn State needed three late victories over the less-than-imposing trio of Rutgers, Michigan State, and Nebraska just to finish 6-6 to get here, the Nittany Lions aren’t trustworthy as bowl-game underdogs. Penn State is 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS as a bowl underdog. Better late than never, leaping on Clemson’s bandwagon.
Best Bet: Clemson -3 (-105 at Caesars)
Pop-Tarts Bowl
You haven’t lived as a bowl-game connoisseur until you’ve watched a giant pastry pop out of a toaster-on-steroids. And rectifying that oversight this year means you get to watch one of the best non-playoff bowl games of the season.
It’s also the Snub Bowl. First, Notre Dame snubbed the bowl committee, opting out of playing BYU—a fellow playoff snubbee. Enter Georgia Tech, which pops into the Pop-Tarts Bowl as an eager and willing opponent to the Cougars.
The Yellow Jackets are hardly a soft pastry. Their grind-it-out offense behind QB Haynes King keeps games close. Georgia Tech is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS as an underdog this year. A 9–3 season highlighted by wins over Clemson and ACC champion Duke, and capped by a tight 16–9 loss to Georgia as 15.5-point underdogs.
Both King and BYU QB Bear Bachmeier need no invitation to take the ball and run. And that ground-pounding should produce long, clock-chewing drives. Georgia Tech averages 7.1 yards per play (6th nationally), 462 yards per game (20th), and 5.6 yards per game on the ground (10th). But the Yellow Jackets’ defense screams “pedestrian”—allowing 397 yards per game (88th), 5.9 yards per rush (92nd), and 12.1 yards per completion (101st).
All of this pops up to be a nice, tasty treat for underdog bettors.
Best Bet: Georgia Tech +4.5 (-115 at BetMGM), or Under-56.5 (-114 at Caesars)
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