So Alabama really does have Georgia’s number. And Arkansas really has seen enough of head coach Sam Pittman.
Again, you learn something new every week in college football.
Alabama beat Georgia for the 10th time in 11 meetings. Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s 56-13 dismantling of Arkansas was the final straw in Pittman’s Razorbacks coaching career. He was fired a day later, ending his Arkansas career 32-34. Former Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino re-takes the reins.
Last week’s housekeeping aside, we turn our attention to another Sunshine State showdown, an interesting ACC game that should draw more attention than it has and an under-the-radar Big 12 game that screams the value-meets-opportunity we seek in our wagers.
Last week: 2-1. Season: 8-8.
All Eyes on the Sunshine State—Again
As of this writing, 61 percent of the bets are on the visiting Miami Hurricanes, which makes sense on numerous fronts, starting with the recency bias of Florida State’s stunning 46-38 overtime loss to Virginia (more on that below) last week. The Seminoles, seven-point favorites coming in, were shredded for 440 yards in a wake-up call to their playoff chances.
Putting those 46 points into context, Miami has allowed 46 points in four games.
Second, No. 2 Miami is 4-2 SU as road favorites, dating to last year. That brings us to No. 3: behind QB Carson Beck, who has vaulted into Heisman consideration (he’s currently anywhere from +1,000 to +1,100), the Hurricanes are 3-1 ATS this season.
Beck isn’t putting up the eye-popping 300-yard games, but he is putting up consistency: 73.2% completion percentage, 972 yards, six TDs, and a 161.4 passer rating. Better yet, Beck has yet to throw an interception this season.
This is why Beck is here. While the Hurricanes have thrived as road favorites, five of their last seven losses over the last two seasons have come on the road. Beck and the Hurricanes are going into a very cranky, very feral Doak Campbell Stadium against an FSU team with plenty to prove after dropping to No. 18 this week. We think they blunt FSU QB Tommy Castellanos and find a way to prolong the Seminoles’ woes.
Best Bet: Miami -4.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
A Cardinal Rule: Bet the Cavalier Offenses
You do know that Virginia is coming off the biggest win this decade: that shocking overtime victory over Florida State. It mildly shocked the accountants at Virginia, considering the school was fined $50,000 for storming the field after the victory.
You probably don’t know that Virginia is averaging 539 yards per game (second in FBS) or that the Cavaliers are averaging 45.6 points a game (10th nationally). And Virginia has yet to fumble the ball behind a rushing attack that averages 243 yards a game (third) and a passing game that, behind QB Chandler Morris, notches nearly 300 yards a game (third).
You may remember Louisville QB Miller Moss from his USC days, where he patiently sat behind Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams, only to be replaced barely halfway through his first season as a Trojan starter. While you weren’t paying attention to Moss and the Cardinals, he was rolling up back-to-back 300-yard passing games, and Louisville was quietly going 4-0 with an offense not quite as prolific as Virginia’s, but with a stouter defense allowing teams only 268 yards a game.
After that emotional victory against Florida State, we don’t quite trust Virginia to win this one outright on the road, although the Cavaliers are 7-3 ATS head-to-head. We do trust that the Cavaliers have gone Over in their last six games, and we do trust in the fact that Louisville is 7-3 to the Over in its last 10 games. So in points, we trust.
Best Bet: Over 62.5. (-110 at BetMGM) or Virginia +7 (-110 at BetMGM)
Follow the Cyclones
Iowa State and Cincinnati have played twice, and it really hasn’t been close either time. Iowa State has won by an average of 18.5 points, easily covering both times in its 34-17 (2024) and 30-10 (2023) victories.
We’ll get Cincinnati’s bona fides out of the way early, since we’re bearish on the Bearcats. Cincinnati averages 39.5 points and 479 yards per game (both 17th). Multi-talented QB Brendan Sorsby has thrown for 1,045 yards and 10 TDs, while running for another 175 yards on a 6.0-yard average.
Now… let’s hit the context button. Yes, 388 of that came against Kansas last week, but more than half (586) came against Bowling Green and Northwestern State. And what about that Cincinnati pass defense? The Bearcats allow nearly 250 yards through the air, which should give Iowa State QB Rocco Becht—he of the 1,103 yards passing and 12 combined TDs—plenty of opportunities to pull off the Cyclones’ 5th SU victory as a road underdog since 2022.
We’re not going to overthink this one, nor spend much time parsing it. Iowa State getting points in a series it dominated against a suspect defense is all we need.
Best Bet: Iowa State +1.5 (-110 at Caesars)
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
