This weekend, F1 returns to Qatar after a one-year hiatus. The course has only been run once before, in 2021, which means that looking at past driver performance at this track won’t lead us very far when factoring it into our picks. Instead, we should look at current car performances, which clearly shows Red Bull as the likely team to come away with a win.
The sportsbooks agree, with Max Verstappen’s odds coming at -400 to win the race. The nearest competition sits at +1200. From what has been shown this season, Verstappen comes into every race weekend with the comfort of knowing it’s his race to lose, and he hasn’t lost many.
If you’re a bit bored by that from a betting standpoint and want a little more excitement while watching the race, check out what BetRivers has to offer. They have a number of interesting props, not least of which is their “Winner without Max Verstappen” bet which has much better odds for several drivers typically in the Top 6.
Winners without Max Verstappen odds:
- Sergio Perez: +150
- Lando Norris: +175
- Oscar Piastri: +500
- Lewis Hamilton: +700
- Charles Leclerc: +900
Bet Rivers players in Michigan and Pennsylvania making a First Time Deposit of $50 or more using Bonus Code USA on the Women’s World Cup will receive a $25 Bonus Bet. Receive a second $25 Bonus Bet if your original wager loses. Qualifying wagers must be on bets at odds of -200 or longer (-150, -110, +200).
Winning Margin Nice Alternative Bet
If you’re looking for something to keep you engaged at the end of the race, BetRivers also offers a bet on the margin of victory. You can bet in two-second increments going from 0.001 seconds all the way to a bet of 10 seconds or more. The odds are fairly evenly distributed throughout, with the real gamble coming at over 10 seconds. If there’s no late safety car or last-minute pit stop, Verstappen should have the pace to comfortably lap the field by more than 10 seconds. But when it comes to F1, you never know…
Winning Margin odds:
- 001 – 1.999 seconds: +600
- 2 – 3.999 seconds: +650
- 4 – 5.999 seconds: +650
- 6 – 7.999 seconds: +650
- 8 – 9.999 seconds: +700
- 10 seconds or more: -200
Additionally, this weekend there is a sprint race, a shorter race held on the day before the main event. This race is for a small amount of points in the drivers championship, and typically is run in one stint, without a pit stop.
The sprint race will be held this Saturday, and if you’re looking for an easy win, Verstappen has a chance to win the 2023 Driver’s Championship on Saturday in the sprint race, giving him all the more reason to perform well. I would put my money on Verstappen to win at -400 odds at Caesars Sportsbook, and enjoy watching him win his third championship in a row.
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In-Race Props
Want to get even deeper into the trenches of F1 betting? There are many other prop bets to look at that don’t involve finishing position at all. Some focus on the opposite, with the winner of qualifying for a popular pre-race prop bet. The day before the race, drivers will compete in a three-part qualifying event to see who will top the grid on Sunday. Correctly choosing the winner of this can be more exciting than the actual race, with a number of additional advantages held by drivers up and down the grid to help even the field.
Other props during the race can include which driver will run the fastest lap of the race, or the appearance of a safety car/virtual safety car. Many sportsbooks also have the option to bet on which cars will retire before the end of a race, and the number of drivers that make it to the end. These bets can be more entertaining to watch alongside the race, so be sure to check them out.
Tips for Betting F1
Consider the Track
Some teams create a car that has better control and grip, making it better on tracks with a lot of corners, while others engineer their car to be quicker on long straights. These differences, which can cause some cars to excel at some tracks, can leave them looking lethargic and behind the pace at others. Knowing which cars are equipped for the race course can grant you a significant advantage when choosing which driver to place your bet on.
Look into Driver History
Seeing which drivers historically perform well at a circuit can give some indication of where the car will finish the race. In Singapore, Lewis Hamilton, who has never qualified outside of the top 5, had a dominant performance that nearly gave him the win, instead handing him a well-deserved podium spot.
These trends are more useful at tracks with a lot of history, like the upcoming Mexican and Brazilian GP’s, than at tracks with a limited history, like Qatar (1 prior race) and Las Vegas (inaugural race this year).
Pay Attention to Team Form
During the course of an F1 season, teams will periodically come out with car upgrades that can artificially increase the performance of their drivers for a short period of time (sometimes lasting longer or being more impactful, as we’ve seen with the McLaren upgrade packages).
Look for teams that are traditionally farther down the grid to peak in races where they have upgrade packages fitted to their car, increasing performance over close rivals. Teams like Williams and Haas have done this rather successfully this season, peaking before falling back to an expected level of performance.
