With roughly one-third of the MLB season remaining, the closest divisional races are in the National League. The streaky New York Mets surged ahead of the sputtering Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East. Meanwhile, the hard-hitting Chicago Cubs and the pitching-savvy Milwaukee Brewers are tied for the NL Central lead through the first 105 games.
The Cubs are the favorite to win the NL Central at -165 odds according to a recent update by BetMGM. The Brewers are +140 odds to secure a third-straight divisional crown.
The Phillies are a slight favorite to win back-to-back NL East titles at -115 odds, but the Mets are right behind them at -110 odds.
August is always the most difficult month of the season with sweltering temperatures and injuries piling up. You can’t win your division in August, but a massive skid can derail a divisional crown and a postseason berth.
Streaky Mets
NL East Odds: -110
NL Pennant Odds: +500
World Series Odds: +1000
Thanks to a hot start, the Mets began the season at 18-7. The Mets posted four winning streaks consisting of at least six victories in a row, including one occurring after the All-Star Break.
The Mets were 21 games above .500 thanks to a six-game surge in early June. Then things hit the rails when the Mets dropped seven in a row in mid-June with a 3-14 skid.
After their disastrous mid-June crash, the Mets remembered how to play baseball and win games. They went on a 14-4 upswing since they bottomed out in June. After a sluggish start, Juan Soto leads the Mets with 25 home runs. Pete Alonso added 20 dingers and leads the team with 81 RBI, while Francisco Lindor added 20 home runs and 59 RBI.
Due to their faithful fans, the popular Mets have slightly inflated prices across the futures board in multiple categories. The Mets haven’t won the NL East since 2015, and they have won only one division crown since 2006. They have a 55.3 percent chance to win the division according to FanGraphs.
The Mets last won the NL pennant in 2015, but you can back them right now to clinch the pennant and advance to the World Series at +500 odds. The Mets are +1000 odds to win the World Series for the first time since their memorable 1986 season. According to FanGraphs, the Mets have a 9.2 percent chance to win the World Series.
Back and Forth Philly
NL East Odds: -115
NL Pennant Odds: +500
World Series Odds: +850
A nine-game winning streak propelled the Phillies into first place in the NL East in late May, but they’ve been inconsistent overall aside from five wins in a row in late June.
The Phillies suffered a six-game losing streak in early June during an ugly 1-9 run. They bounced back in late June with an 8-1 stretch, but the Phillies have been unable to string together more than a two-game winning streak since then. Kyle Schwarber is still mashing, though. The All-Star DH leads the Phillies with 36 home runs and 84 RBI.
At the 105-game mark, the Phillies found themselves only one game behind the Mets in the NL East. Both teams extended their overall division lead by double digits against the Miami Marlins in third place.
The Phillies are the defending NL East champs after ending the reign of the Atlanta Braves, who previously won the NL East six seasons in a row. FanGraphs estimates the Phillies have a 44.7 percent chance of winning consecutive division crowns.
The Phillies last won the NL pennant in 2022, and they’re only +500 odds to punch their ticket to the World Series. The Phillies are the second favorite on the board at BetMGM to win the World Series at +850 odds. FanGraphs estimates they have a 10.8 percent chance to win the World Series for the first time since 2008.
High Scoring Cubs
NL Central Odds: -165
NL Pennant Odds: +650
World Series Odds: +1400
The L.A. Dodgers and Cubs both scored 553 runs through 105 games, which was tied for the MLB and NL lead in scoring with 5.27 runs per game.
The Cubs are led by three sluggers who crushed at least 20 home runs. Pete Crow-Armstrong smacked 27 homers with 76 RBI, and he has a .558 slugging percentage. Seiya Suzuki hit 25 home runs and leads the Cubs with 81 RBI. Michael Busch has hit 20 homers and added 60 RBI.
Left-handed journeyman starter Matthew Boyd emerged as the Cubs ace this season with an 11-3 record, 2.20 ERA, and 1.01 WHIP through 105 games. He never recorded more than nine wins in a season over his career, but he’s already won 11 games this season. Boyd is having the best stretch of his career with a 10-1 record spanning 16 starts.
The NL Central is often called the Cannibal Division because all five teams feast on each other year after year. The Cubs and Brewers are tied after 105 games, but the Cincinnati Reds are seven games back, and the St. Louis Cardinals are eight games back in the loss column. The Cubs have a 58.3 percent chance to win the NL Central, according to FanGraphs. The Brewers have a 40 percent chance to defend their division crown. The Reds are a moon shot at 1 percent, and the Cardinals have just a 0.8 percent chance of winning the division.
The Cubs seek their first NL Central title since 2020 and only their second since 2017. The Cubs are a consensus favorite to win the division at -165 odds. You can also back them a +650 odds to win the NL Pennant for the first time since their magical season of 2016, when they finally got off the schneid and won the World Series.
Stingy Brew Crew
NL Central Odds: +140
NL Pennant Odds: +800
World Series Odds: +1600
The Cubs might have bigger bats, but the Brewers have better arms. The Brewers allowed the fewest runs (405) in the NL through 105 games. Their pitching staff allows only 3.85 runs per game, which is the top in the NL and third best in the majors.
The Brewers have the second-best ERA in the NL at 3.58, and they’re fifth with a 1.24 WHIP. Opponents are hitting only .231 against them, which is second best in the NL and fifth overall in the majors.
In his first season with the Brewers, Quinn Priester (10-2) has become the team’s good luck charm. They won their last 10 games in a row when Priester took the mound, and he was 8-0 in the stretch. Priester has a 3.28 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.
In his eighth season in Milwaukee, veteran starter Freddy Peralta is having a career year. He’s 12-4 in 22 starts with a 2.81 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and already tied his career best in wins with a dozen.
Christian Yelich is having his best power at the plate since 2019 with 20 home runs and 69 RBI. In his second season with the Brewers, Jackson Chourio is on pace to set career marks. Chourio hit 17 home runs with 67 RBI. With 18 stolen bases, the 21-year-old Venezuelan centerfielder is close to joining the 20/20 clubs for the second time since making it to the show.
The Brewers are +140 odds to win the NL Central for a third-straight season. They have been the NL Central champs three times in the last four seasons.
Since joining the NL during realignment in 1998, the Brewers have never won the NL pennant. They’re one of five franchises that have never won the World Series. They made only one appearance in the World Series in 1982 when they won the AL pennant. The Brewers are +800 to clinch the NL pennant and +1600 odds to win their first World Series.
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