The MLB season is right around the corner, and we have your MLB Player Prop picks right here. Every day throughout the MLB season, the odds for player prop picks change, so make sure you check with your favorite sportsbook to get the updated lines.
For now, you’ll see our favorite 2024 season-leader MLB Player Prop Bet Picks in three different categories: hitting player props (such as home runs), pitching props (such as strikeouts) and base-running props (stolen bases).
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MLB Strikeout Leader
It’s extremely hard to pick anyone but Atlanta Braves pitcher Spencer Strider to record the most strikeouts this season. He is currently getting +190. It’s so likely to happen that the next-closest pitcher has odds of +900 to record the most strikeouts, which should tell you something about just how high the market is on Strider.
It’s no secret that Strider has some of the best strikeout stuff in the game today, with some downright nasty pitches that I’m sure he has worked on and made even better during the offseason.
Strider led all of baseball in 2023 with a remarkable 13.55 K/9 number. That’s a really ridiculous number, and it’s why he is the overwhelming favorite to lead baseball in strikeouts for the 2024 season.
MLB Saves Leader
I think a lot of people are down on Josh Hader simply because he played on a very disappointing San Diego Padres team in 2023. That’s fair, but Hader was not the reason that they were so mediocre. He’s still one of MLB’s premier closing pitchers, and he showed it once again last year with numbers to back it up.
He had 33 saves last season on a pretty below-average team that didn’t get a ton of chances to close games out. He owned a 2.36 xERA as well, showing just how good he was when given the chance. Now, he gets to be the new closer for a team that is set up to be much better than the 2023 Padres, and I could see him getting a ton of chances to close games out for the Houston Astros
His +650 price seems like some really good value for one of the best relief pitchers in baseball.
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MLB Home Run Leader
I think it would be a disservice not to put some money down on Los Angeles Dodger two-way player Shohei Ohtani to lead the league in homers in 2024 at +900 odds. He had 44 home runs last season, which is on the low end of what you would expect from a guy who finished No. 1 in slugging percentage in the MLB with a crazy .654 number. His power is ridiculous, and we have already seen him pace the league in homers before.
I think at +900 and on a new team that has better supporting players around him, he should have as good a chance as anyone to lead baseball in home runs.
MLB RBI Leader
I really don’t think it’s too crazy to back Atlanta Braves slugger Ronald Acuna Jr. to lead the league in RBIs. He’s at +3000 odds and was ninth in baseball in 2023 with 106 runs driven in. He doesn’t bat in the ideal spot as a leadoff hitter (Braves cleanup hitter Matt Olson actually led the league last year with 139 RBIs), but you can never rule out Acuna with his insane hitting stats.
He had a .463 xwOBA and 170 wRC+ in 2023, and was the NL MVP for a reason. Any prop you can get on him at 30/1 seems like a pretty good value.
MLB Hits Leader
Again, it’s really difficult not to take Acuna, especially at +850. He is not the favorite for most hits. That honor currently goes to Luis Arraez. There is no doubt that he’s a great hitter who led baseball in batting average last year, but he didn’t lead the league in expected batting average. I like to look at advanced stats to see how well a player actually performed rather than the good or bad luck he experienced throughout the season.
Acuna had a .337 AVG, but a .357 xBA in 2023. Arraez had a .354 AVG but a .329 xBA, meaning that regression is coming for him, while Acuna was even better than what his stats showed, if you can believe that.
MLB Stolen Bases Leader
There’s a bit of value on Arizona Diamondbacks player Corbin Carroll to lead the league in stolen bases. He had 54 stolen bases in 2023, which was the second-most in baseball behind Acuna.
Carroll’s 15.8 BsR tells you how efficient he was on the basepaths. He was far and away the best in the league. Nico Hoerner was a distant second with a 9.7 BsR.
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