The first round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs begins this weekend after another exciting batch of Play-In Tournament games to determine the #7 and #8 seeds in each conference.
We’ll take a closer look at first-round matchups involving #3 vs #6 seeds and #4 vs #5 seeds. The #3 New York Knicks are the biggest series favorite from this batch at -425 odds according to BetMGM. The Knicks will battle the inexperienced but up-and-coming #6 Detroit Pistons. Futures bettors are pounding the favorites in the Eastern Conference, but the prices in the Western Conference are much closer because of a stronger contingent of middle seeds.
New York Knicks (3) vs. Detroit Pistons (6)
Series Odds: Knicks -425 / Pistons +325
Why the Knicks Win: The Knicks were the third-best team in the Eastern Conference with a 51-31 record. The Knicks had not posted consecutive 50-win seasons since Pat Riley was their head coach in the mid-1990s. The Knicks made two huge trades in the offseason to bolster their starting five with Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges. Towns (24.4 ppg, 12.8 rebounds) gave the Knicks a much-needed consistent secondary scorer as a complement to Jalen Brunson (26.0 ppg). The unsung hero of the Knicks is their defensive stopper, OG Anunoby, who also averages 18.0 ppg.
Case for the Pistons: The Pistons were 3-1 against the Knicks during the regular season. After a 9-15 start, the Pistons went 33-17 over their next 50 games. They embraced a tougher persona that was reminiscent of the “Bad Boys Pistons” era of the 1980s. Cade Cunningham, the former #1 pick in the NBA Draft, led the Pistons with 26.1 points, 9.1 assists, and 6.1 rebounds per game this season. Cunningham has a chance to establish himself as a bona fide superstar during his postseason debut at Madison Square Garden.
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Better Coach: Tom Thibodeau from the Knicks has the edge in this series. “Thibs” gets a lot of guff from fans for overplaying his starters during the regular season, but coaches tend to shorten their postseason rotation anyway. J.B. Bickerstaff from the Pistons is great at teaching younger players, but he struggles to win in the postseason. That’s the main reason the Cleveland Cavs fired him after their exit in last year’s playoffs.
Pauly’s Pick: Knicks in 5. Yes, I’m a biased Knicks fan, but I’m also a pragmatist. The first round should be an easy series for the Knicks before they get crushed in the conference semifinals against the #2 Boston Celtics.
Indiana Pacers (4) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (5)
Series Odds: Pacers -200 / Bucks +165
Why the Pacers Win: The Pacers were the highest-scoring team in the NBA last season (123.3 ppg), but their lackluster defense resulted in a sweep by the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. Their offense took a slight step back this season, but their defense has significantly improved. Pascal Siakam led the Pacers in scoring (20.2 ppg), but Tyrese Haliburton (18.6 ppg) is an exciting playmaker who finished third in the league in assists with 9.2 per game.
Case for the Bucks: The Bucks were 3-1 against the Pacers this season. You can never count out Giannis Antetokounmpo (30.4 ppg, 11.9 rebounds) if he’s healthy. The Greek Freak was injured in the last two postseasons, which is why the Bucks never made it out of the first round. If Damian Lillard didn’t get sidelined by blood clots, this series would be much closer.
Better Coach: Rick Carlisle from the Pacers has the edge over Doc Rivers. Both coaches won an NBA title, but Carlisle is much better at making adjustments during a playoff series. Carlisle led the Pacers to their first 50-win season since 2013-14.
Pauly’s Pick: Pacers in 6. The Greek Freak will unleash at least two monstrous games when he drops 40-plus, but the Bucks don’t have enough firepower to outgun the Pacers over the entire series.
L.A. Lakers (3) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (6)
Series Odds: Lakers -190 / T-Wolves +155
Why the Lakers Win: Hollywood is buzzing over the LeBron and Luka Show. Lebron James put up huge numbers (24.4 points, 8.2 assists, and 7.8 rebounds) this season for someone north of 40 years old. Fans are excited about Luka Doncic’s first postseason series as a member of the Lakers. Let’s not forget that Doncic led the Dallas Mavs to the NBA Finals last year and destroyed the Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals. Since joining the Lakers, Doncic has led the team in scoring with 28.2 ppg while adding 8.1 rebounds and 7.6 assists per game. Austin Reaves is also quietly having a career-best season, averaging 20.2 ppg.
Case for the Timberwolves: The Timberwolves are pesky and seem to thrive when you least expect them. They were 2-2 versus the Lakers this season. Superstars step up in the playoffs, so we’ll see if Anthony Edwards can pull off a first-round upset. Edwards posted a career-best 27.6 ppg and shot 39.5 percent from 3-point land. The Timberwolves were also the fourth-best 3-point shooting team this season at 37.7 percent.
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Better Coach: JJ Redick has a slight edge, even though this is his first postseason as a head coach. A lot of so-called experts thought Reddick’s lack of experience would be a huge liability for the Lakers this season, but Reddick quickly proved he was more than capable. Chris Finch led the Timberwolves to the conference finals last year, but that was before they traded Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle.
Pauly’s Pick: Lakers in 6. The Lakers are the better team on paper, especially since they added Doncic. Plus, the Timberwolves cannot rely on Randle in the postseason.
Denver Nuggets (4) vs. L.A. Clippers (5)
Series Odds: Nugs -135 / Clippers +115
Why the Nuggets Win: Nikola Jokic is the best player on the planet. He’ll most likely finish second in MVP voting despite posting the best season of his career by averaging a triple-double with 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game. The Nuggets shocked everyone when they fired head coach Michael Malone in the final week of the season. Ownership got sick of the behind-the-scenes toxicity between Malone and general manager Calvin Booth (who was also fired), which had spilled over into the locker room. Despite all the drama and negative attention, Jokic and the Nuggets cannot wait to step onto the hardwood and hoop it up.
Case for the Clippers: The Clippers finished the season on a 9-1 swing to secure the #5 seed. Kawhi Leonard is finally healthy, which makes them dangerous in a postseason series. The Clippers have a trio of 20-point scorers with James Harden (22.8), Norman Powell (21.8), and Leonard (21.5). Meanwhile, Ivan Zubac (16.8 ppg, 12.6 rebounds) is one of the most underrated centers in the league.
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Better Coach: Ty Lue from the Clippers has the edge over interim head coach David Adelman. Lue won two championship rings as a player and won one title as a head coach. Adelman, a long-time assistant coach with the Nuggets, has only four games of head coaching experience.
Pauly’s Pick: Nuggets in seven. This is the closest matchup out of these four, but Jokic puts the Nuggets over the top. The Nuggets opened as a -160 series favorite, but early money backed the Clippers, and the price has dropped to -125.
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