So UCLA decided to stick around for a half against LSU. So USC couldn’t be bothered to block or tackle down the stretch against a Michigan team there for the taking. And Kansas State? What was that pterodactyl=sized egg you laid against BYU?
Again, sometimes the betting trend is your friend. And sometimes, going against the betting trend is your friend. Last week, we went contrarian because each offering gave us tangible reasons to do so in terms of the value-meets-opportunity we seek. That this wasn’t the week to go contrarian and give 24 points to a UCLA team that—for a half—found a heretofore missing element (or several) in a hostile environment doesn’t detract from the original soundness of the wager.
USC at the Big House? Same thing. We’d make that wager again, given the same variables.
As for Kansas State getting poleaxed by BYU? Sometimes going against the trends smacks you in the mouth the same way BYU smacked the Wildcats in the mouth. Welcome to college football and putting money on 18-, 19- and 20-year-olds.
Last week: 0-3; Season: 2-7
U Need to See The U
Last Sunday afternoon, you could have gotten Miami giving 7.5 at BetMGM. By Sunday night, the Hurricanes were favored by 17.5. The line has bounced between Miami -15.5 and Miami -19.5 at most online books.
Which is about where it should be. Through four games, Miami is averaging 52.5 points a game. Yes, that’s against the likes of Florida A&M, Ball State and South Florida, with a 41-17 beatdown of Florida thrown in. But when QB Cam Ward, last seen carrying Washington State far past its punching weight, had an off day against South Florida—where he threw for “only” 404 yards and three TDs—you get the idea what kind of offensive force the Hurricanes are.
Put aside Georgia’s Carson Beck, Texas’ Quinn Ewers, Alabama’s Jalen Milroe, Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel and any other trendy name you care to drop. Right now, Ward is the best QB in college football, throwing for 1,439 yards and 14 TDs to two INTs. But he’s only one explanation for Miami’s 4-0 record SU and 4-0 record ATS. The Hurricanes are averaging 8.8 yards per play and 605 yards per game. Both figures are No. 2 in FBS.
Defensively, Miami is ninth in points allowed (10.6) and sixth in rushing yards allowed (64.8). The way to corral the Hurricanes is via the air, but Virginia Tech doesn’t have the aerial firepower to take advantage of that. Nor, currently, do the Hokies have the form. They’re 0-2 against Power 4 teams, with losses to Vanderbilt and Rutgers on the ledger.
Suffice to say, Miami is a notch or seven above Vandy and Rutgers. Again, this line has some movement left in it, so shop around. But unless it soars well north of 20 points, the Hurricanes should be a covering force.
Best Bet: Miami -19 (-110 at Caesars)
New users can Get Your First Bet Back at Caesars Sportsbook. If your first cash bet loses, you’ll get it back as a Bonus Bet – up to $1,000.
Be Generous With the Points Here
Yes, you’re saying to yourself, “But Gridiron Guru, you gave 24 points to UCLA last week and look what happened. …”
What happened is LSU is no Ohio State. While 24.5 points seems like a big line, especially in the Big 10, the Buckeyes have beaten Michigan State by at least 24 points in each of the last five meetings—and six of the last seven. The closest of the five was a 34-10 Buckeyes’ beatdown in 2019.
As we burrow further, the trends get worse for Sparty. Behind RBs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State is averaging seven yards a rush (second in FBS) and 241 yards on the ground (14th). The Buckeyes’ offense is rolling up 556 yards a game (fifth) and 8.6 yards per play (third).
Not only does Michigan State have to slow that down, the Spartans and their minus-5 turnover ratio have to figure out how to move the ball against an Ohio State defense allowing teams 1.8 yards per rushing attempt (third) and an FBS-best 3.0 yards per play. QB Aidan Chiles has thrown seven interceptions through four games and now faces one of the most feral pass rushes in the country.
Now, factor in Ohio State has won 88 consecutive games SU as a 20+-point favorite. According to the Action Network, since 2016, the Buckeyes are 36-0 SU and 20-14-2 ATS as a 20+-point favorite.
Can Michigan State pull off a back-door cover? Possibly. Will it? Not likely.
Best Bet: Ohio State -23.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Sign up at BetMGM and receive the Best Sportsbook offers Today!
While You’re Paying Attention Elsewhere…
Here’s a glimpse of a future Pac-8/10/12 game that you’re probably not paying attention to. And while you’re not alone in ignoring two teams outside the Power 4 playing well after dark everywhere but Hawaii, this one has the potential for offensive fireworks.
Lots and lots of fireworks. Behind QB John Mateer, who is third in FBS in total offense (381.8 yards per game), Washington State averages 46.2 points per game, having racked up 70, 37, 24 and 54 points en route to a 4-0 record.
Meanwhile, No. 25 Boise State has a Heisman Trophy candidate nobody outside of the Mountain Time Zone has likely heard of. Meet Ashton Jeanty, who leads FBS in rushing (195.3 ypg) and is averaging a video game-esque 10.5 yards per carry. And Jeanty takes his shot against a Cougars defense that allows 4.9 yards per carry (96th in FBS) and 130 yards per game (54th).
You could take Washington State catching the seven, knowing the Cougars are 5-1 in the all-time series. But because Boise State has gone over nine of its last 12 games—including six straight dating to last November—and because the Cougars are scoring almost at will, we like the late-night chaos this one promises in terms of points.
Best Bet: Over 64.5 (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
New users can Get Your First Bet Back at Caesars Sportsbook. If your first cash bet loses, you’ll get it back as a Bonus Bet – up to $1,000.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER