Seven teams hired new head coaches in the offseason, including five rookies. The Chicago Bears tapped Ben Johnson to replace Mike Eberflus, and Johnson is the consensus betting favorite to win the NFL Coach of the Year (COY) at +650 odds according to BetMGM.
Mike Vrabel, the new head coach of the New England Patriots, is second on BetMGM’s awards board at +875 odds to win the COY. Vrabel won the prestigious award in 2021 when he led the Tennessee Titans to a 12-5 record.
Last year’s winner, Kevin O’Connell, guided the Minnesota Vikings to a 14-3 record. O’Connell is a long shot to win again at +4000 odds. It’s rare for a head coach to win this coveted award in consecutive seasons. Joe Gibbs from the Washington Redskins was the last coach with back-to-back COY wins in 1982 and 1983.
Ben Johnson (Bears) +650
Johnson was the top offensive coordinator in the NFL the last few seasons with the Detroit Lions, where he made a name for himself as an offensive guru. After a disappointing playoff exit, Johnson jumped ship to a division rival where he has a chance to restore the Chicago Bears to their former glory.
If you think Caleb Williams and Johnson’s philosophy will be an ideal fit, then take a flier on Johnson to win the COY at +650 odds. However, it might take a half season or even a full season before the entire offense finally meshes, which is why many bettors are reluctant to back Johnson this year.
Mike Vrabel (Patriots) +875
It didn’t take long before everyone realized that tapping Jerod Mayo to succeed the legendary Bill Belichick was a terrible decision. Credit the Patriots for doing the right thing by hiring Mike Vrabel. He lived the “Patriot Way” as a player and was a member of multiple Super Bowl squads. Now he has a chance to imprint his mark as a head coach with the post-Belichick Patriots.
Although Vrabel is second on the board at BetMGM to win Coach of the Year at +875 odds, you can find him as a slight consensus favorite on other sportsbooks and apps. The Patriots have the third-easiest schedule in the NFL this season, which is yet another reason why Vrabel is a popular pick.
Jim Harbaugh (Chargers) +1000
Harbaugh won the Coach of the Year back in 2011 when he led the San Francisco 49ers to a 13–3 record. After a strong return to the NFL last season with the Los Angeles Chargers, there are a lot of expectations on Harbaugh in his second season.
Harbaugh offers the best value pick on the board at +1000 odds, but a lot of his success will rely on how strong the AFC West is this season. They sent three teams to the playoffs last season, and the Las Vegas Raiders have a chance to finally turn around their franchise with a veteran head coach. If the Chargers win the division, it will thrust Harbaugh into contention for a second Coach of the Year win.
Liam Coen (Jaguars) +1400
The Jaguars hired an offensive-minded head coach in Liam Coen to get the most out of quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who underperformed as a former #1 pick. The Jags hope Coen can replicate the same success he had with Baker Mayfield last season as the OC of the Tampa Bay Bucs.
Coen is part of the Sean McVay coaching tree as a former OC of the Rams, and he’s another one of McVay’s disciples who were tapped to become a head coach. At 39, Coen is one of several head coaches under 40 years old. Maybe Coen can pull off some magic with this young squad, where older veteran coaches fell short of the mark over the last decade.
Dave Canales (Panthers) +1400
Once again, credit Mayfield’s on-the-field success for helping his former OC land a head coaching gig. After a strong season with the Bucs in 2023, the Panthers hired Dave Canales to take over their beleaguered franchise. The Panthers were not a good team last season at 5-12 during Canales’s rookie campaign, but they exceeded market expectations when they went 7-2 against the spread in the last nine games. That’s an indication that the team didn’t give up on Canales and kept playing hard even when they were outmatched. This year’s squad is still a work in progress, but at least there’s a glimmer of hope that the Panthers are a team on the upswing.
Pete Carroll (Raiders) +1400
Just when you thought Pete Carroll would hang it up and ride off into the sunset and enjoy retirement, Tom Brady and the Las Vegas Raiders persuaded the oldest coach in the NFL to take over the Raiders. They hired Carroll to instill a professional attitude and winning culture, which the undisciplined Raiders lacked ever since they relocated to Las Vegas.
Carroll never won the Coach of the Year before despite several outstanding seasons with the Seattle Seahawks. If Carroll can lead the Raiders to a postseason berth and win 10 or more games, then he’ll be among the front-runners to win his first COY award.
Sean Payton (Broncos) +1500
It’s been almost 20 years since Sean Payton was named the Coach of the Year with the 2006 New Orleans Saints. If you think the NFL likes to honor previous winners, then Payton is another solid value pick at +1500 odds to win the 2025 COY. Payton accepted a tough reclamation project with the Broncos in 2023, yet they were ahead of schedule last season with 10 wins and an AFC Wild Card spot under rookie quarterback Bo Nix.
The bar is set high for Payton and Nix this upcoming season. The Broncos will have to run the table and win a tough AFC West division title, and they must also finish with at least 12 or 13 victories if Payton gets any consideration for a second COY award.
Aaron Glenn (Jets) +2000
The Detroit Lions adored Aaron Glenn as their defensive coordinator during the previous four seasons. He did a bang-up job last year, even with the Lions decimated by injuries.
The Jets selected Glenn as a first-round pick in the 1994 NFL Draft. He was a standout lockdown defender for the Jets in the late ‘90s and made two trips to the Pro Bowl under then-head coach Bill Parcells.
After a tumultuous 2024 season with a 5-12 record, team owner Woody Johnson attempts to invoke nostalgia by hiring a former star in Glenn, and someone who was mentored by Parcells. However, if the Jets jump out to a great start and shed their “LOL Jets” moniker, then expect the local media and rabid fanbase to elevate Glenn to super-coach status. If the Jets secure a trip to the playoffs, then Glenn will become a frontrunner for Coach of the Year. Of course, that’s a pipe dream at best because the Jets are a jinxed franchise.
Kellen Moore (Saints) +2500
Kellen Moore is fresh off a Super Bowl victory as the offensive coordinator of the Philadelphia Eagles. Instead of running it back with the Eagles, Moore accepted his first head coaching job to fill a vacancy with the New Orleans Saints. It’s going to be a long season for Moore because the Saints are in shambles with the worst cap situation in the NFL, thanks to numerous dead money contracts. They also have one of the worst quarterback rooms in the NFL and are expected to start Spencer Rattler in Week 1.
There are whispers that the Saints will tank for the #1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft for a shot at the Arch Manning Sweepstakes, which is why Moore is a huge long shot to win COY.
Brian Schottenheimer (Cowboys) +2500
Brian Schottenheimer spent the last 20 years as an offensive coordinator in the NFL before he accepted his first head coaching job. After Jerry Jones parted ways with Mike McCarthy, he promoted Schottenheimer from OC to head coach.
The season had not even begun when Schottenheimer took a huge hit after the Cowboys lost the best defender in the league. Jones finally traded Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers after a bitter contract dispute.
Schottenheimer is a long shot for a reason at +2500 odds, and he probably has the hardest gig out of any of the new rookie head coaches, including Glenn. Here’s a fun fact: Brian’s father, Marty Schottenheimer, won the 2004 Coach of the Year award with the San Diego Chargers.
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