As a resident of Las Vegas, I don’t think any city could do the NFL Draft any better than Vegas did it two years ago. Over 300,000 people arrived in Vegas for the draft and were welcomed in typical Vegas style. This year, the draft will be held in Green Bay. While the Packers are one of the NFL’s legendary teams, Green Bay is a small town. It will be interesting to see how they handle this kind of influx.
As for the draft itself, it’s not a very deep one. The “stars” of the draft each year—the quarterbacks—are few and far between in 2025, although the first pick from the Tennessee Titans will almost surely be Miami QB Cam Ward. That’s a -10000 bet.
After that, however, it’s a toss-up. But the key to the draft is information. Knowledgeable bettors can make some money for sure. In fact, the NFL draft isn’t good for sports books because the “sharp” bettors have access to this information and can use it to get an edge on the books.
But what about us amateurs who only began to pay attention to the draft a couple of weeks ago? Let’s talk about some prop bets that only need a bit of luck to win.
Quarterback Quandary
As we mentioned, this isn’t a very deep draft. Let’s talk about quarterbacks. After Ward, the next best QB is Shedeur Sanders, the son of the legendary Deion Sanders, who coached his son at the University of Colorado. But many scouts see too many negatives about Sanders. While he’s a pocket QB, his accuracy is questioned, and his defensive reads are questionable. Still, he’s a Sanders, and there are many teams in need of a QB.
We’ll see what happens at pick 3 when the New York Giants select. This will influence how many QBs are picked in round 1. If the Giants pass, he might drop all the way to the Steelers at #11. After Sanders, the quality drops off quickly. Ole Miss QB Jaxon Dart is good but unfinished.
So what’s your guess on QBs in Round 1? BetMGM has the Over/Under at 2.5, with the Over favored at -125. The Over is -105. Do you believe Dart will go in Round 1? Bet your heart.
O-Lines
Other teams already have QBs that they value, but you have to protect them. So the solution to that is to draft offensive linemen. And this draft has some great ones. There are five who are unquestioned top picks: Texas OT Kelvin Banks Jr., LSU OT Will Campbell, Iowa OT Armand Membou, Ohio State OT Josh Simmons, and North Dakota State’s Grey Zabel. Oregon’s Josh Conerlay Jr. and Alabama’s Tyler Booker are also top prospects.
So O line Over/Under is 6.5, heavily favoring the Over at -150. The under is +115. Will one of those seven slip into the second round? Do your homework…
Running backs are also a wild card. Remember, in the modern NFL, running backs are undervalued. Teams think any running back can become a star or at least be serviceable. But Boise State’s Aston Jeanty is on another planet. He’s a generational talent on the scale of Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley. He will go in the first 10 picks for sure.
After Jeanty, the quality drops off substantially. North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton and Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson were great in college, but are they worthy of a first-round pick? BetMGM ranks the Over/Under on running back as 2.5, favoring the Under at -275, and the Over at +200.
D-Fence
And of course, the defensive line often takes the team to the next level. If you can rush the QB successfully and/or stop the run, you are on the way. In this draft, there are some very valuable defensive linemen and edge players that could make an impact. With the Over/Under at 8.5, there are a lot of factors to consider. The Over is favored at -275, with the Under at +200.
So keep an eye on the number. We won’t go through each lineman, but clearly the top two should go in the first 10 picks: Penn State’s Abdul Carter and Michigan’s Mason Graham. If you see someone like Oregon’s Derrick Harmon or Ole Miss’ Princely Umanmielen go, it could be an Over.
The list of bets you can make at BetMGM for the draft is almost endless, but the one that is most interesting is the division between offensive and defensive players selected in the first round. Most sports books have it almost even at 15.5 with both sides giving up -115.
So have fun, root for your team, and you may have some profits waiting at the end of the night.
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