NFL Futures: Bettors Backing the Detroit Lions to Prevail in Super Bowl 59

Now that the playoffs teams are set, which one has the straightest path to the Super Bowl? The Chiefs and Lions have the byes, so can one of the other teams surprise the experts?

The NFL playoffs begin this weekend, and 14 teams are in the hunt for the coveted Super Bowl trophy. The Detroit Lions are the outright favorite to win Super Bowl 59 at +275 odds according to BetMGM. The Kansas City Chiefs are the two-time defending champion and the second favorite on the futures board at +350 odds. Rounding out the top five are the Baltimore Ravens (+600), Buffalo Bills (+600), and Philadelphia Eagles (+700).

BetMGM offers a prop bet where you name the Super Bowl finalists. The Chiefs and Lions to meet in Super Bowl 59 will pay out +380 odds if you want to bet chalk and back the two favorites.

The Favorites: Lions and Chiefs

Both the Lions and the Chiefs went 15-2 this season and locked up the #1 seed in their respective conferences. During the last four weeks of the regular season, three different teams were listed as a Super Bowl favorite by BetMGM including the Lions, Chiefs, and Buffalo Bills. When the season finally ended, the Lions were back on top of the futures board.

The Lions were priced at +1200 odds to win the Super Bowl in the preseason. Any diehard fans who backed their beloved team during the summer are pumped considering the odds are currently +280. Despite numerous injuries to key starters, especially on defense, the Lions continue on their mission to win their first Super Bowl.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs are looking to make NFL history as the first three-peat champion. No team has ever won the Super Bowl in three consecutive seasons, yet oddsmakers installed the Chiefs as the betting favorite in the offseason at +500 odds. They were at the top of the board through the first 10 weeks of the season before the Lions overtook them in November.

Since Christmas 2023, the Chiefs posted a 21-2 record. One of those two losses was a meaningless game in Week 18 when they rested all their starters. The only other loss in that span occurred against the Bills in Buffalo in Week 11.

 


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Value Picks: Ravens, Bills, Eagles

A trio of teams are in the second tier on the futures board. The Ravens, Bills, and Eagles offer the most value at the start of the playoffs and they’re priced between +600 and +700.

Despite their regular season success over the last few years, the Ravens and Bills have not won an AFC championship. Both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have yet to lead their respective teams on a trip to the Super Bowl. Will this be the year one of them finally breaks the cycle and clinches a conference championship and Super Bowl berth? The Bills (13-4) and Ravens (12-5) are both +600 odds to win the Super Bowl, and +300 odds to win the AFC Championship.

Jackson detractors love to cite his lackluster performances in the postseason with only one trip to the AFC title game. The Ravens are 2-4 in the playoffs with Jackson under center, and they lost to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship last season.

Allen has a 5-5 record as a starter in the playoffs, but had only one appearance in the AFC Championship. The 2021 Bills lost one of the greatest playoff games in NFL history in overtime to the Chiefs. Since that crushing defeat, the Bills were knocked out of the playoffs during the Divisional Round in the last three postseasons.

The Eagles (14-3) posted the second-best record in the NFC and they’re +700 odds to win the Super Bowl. Bettors who lack faith in the Lions are backing the Eagles and their stout defense to win the NFC Championship. Jalen Hurts sustained a concussion late in the season, and although he’ll be ready to start in the postseason, it’s still something to monitor. The addition of running back Saquon Barkley to the offense has been a godsend. Instead of trying to set the single-season rushing record, the Eagles sat him in Week 18 to keep him healthy for the playoffs.

Skol and the Bays: Vikings, Packers, Bucs

It was supposed to be a transition year in Minnesota, but the Vikings surprised the league with 14 victories despite a win total of 6.5 Over/Under. Rookie QB JJ McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury in the preseason, so veteran backup Sam Darnold won the starting job by default. Darnold didn’t waste his opportunity to show off his passing skills, and the Vikings went from a team in rebuilding mode to a potential contender. The Vikings are +1600 odds to win the Super Bowl, but the outlook is somewhat grim after they were stomped by the Lions in Week 18.

The Green Bay Packers went 11-6 in the top-heavy NFC North this season and were easily the “best third place team” in the league. If the Eagles are not careful, these Packers could steal a win in Philly. The Packers were a popular value pick in the preseason to win the Super Bowl, and you can back them right now at +1800 odds.

The Tampa Bay Bucs (10-7) snuck into the postseason when they won the lackluster NFC South after the Atlanta Falcons imploded. Baker Mayfield should make things interesting during Wild Card weekend, but the Bucs going all the way seems like a pipe dream at +3000 odds.

 


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Hollywood Underdogs: Chargers, Rams, Commanders

The Chargers (11-6) and Rams (10-7) are both +3500 odds to win the Super Bowl, which makes the L.A. teams the ideal candidates to play the role of a spoiler in this year’s postseason. Hollywood loves a compelling underdog story and the Chargers and Rams both have the potential to pull off upsets.

In his first season with the Chargers, head coach Jim Harbaugh guided them to a Wild Card berth. Despite being the #5 seed, they’re a road favorite against the Houston Texans in the AFC Wild Card. The Chargers have an old-school philosophy with a tough-as-nails defense and a hard-nosed rushing attack. And when they need a big play, Justin Herbert is there to bail them out of trouble.

After an awful 1-4 start, the Rams went 9-2 in their next 11 games to secure the NFC West title. They also had one of the biggest surprise victories of the season when they won a 44-42 shootout against the Bills in Week 14.

The nation’s capital is 2,670 miles away from Los Angeles, but we’re including the Washington Commanders in this group of Hollywood underdogs because they have the same odds as the Chargers and Rams. You can take a flier on the Commanders at +3500 odds. A rookie quarterback has never won the Super Bowl, but don’t tell that to Jayden Daniels!

The Commanders were a huge long shot at +12000 odds when the season began and had a win total of 6.5. O/U. They’re the definition of an overachiever after Daniels led the Commanders to a 12-5 record. Their defense has vastly improved in the second half of the season, but the Bucs will have a tough time slowing down their offense in their NFC Wild Card matchup.

Long Shots: Broncos, Texans, Steelers

The Denver Broncos entered this season with a win total at 5.5 O/U and were a 200/1 moonshot to win the Super Bowl. Not too many people gave them a chance during a rebuilding season. Credit head coach Sean Payton for grinding out 10 wins with rookie quarterback Bo Nix. They went 5-2 in their last seven games to sneak into the playoffs as the #7 seed. They’re still a long shot at +8000 odds, and will most likely meet their inevitable fate this weekend in Buffalo.

The Texans were the surprise team last season and won a playoff game before getting knocked out in the Divisional Round. The Texans had a strong start in 2024 at 6-2. They struggled in the second half of the season at 4-5 and finished 10-7. Five out of their seven losses were against playoff quads, and the other two were against the Titans and Jets. This year’s team is not as well-rounded or impressive as last year’s squad, which is why they’re a longshot at +10000.

The ice-cold Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) ended the season with a four-game losing streak. They coughed up first place in the AFC North during their December skid but still secured a Wild Card berth. Bookies and bettors lost faith in Russell Wilson, which is why the Steelers are the other long shot on the board at +10000 odds.

 


 

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History Playbook

On This Day In Sports History

February 5, 2012 — The Giants rally past the Patriots 21-17 in Super Bowl XLVI. It's a rematch of Super Bowl XLII four years earlier where the Giants upset the Patriots 14-10, ending New England's hopes for a perfect 19-0 season. In 2012, trailing 17-15, New York has the ball on their own 12-yard line with 3:46 remaining. Eli Manning connects with Mario Manningham for a 38-yard completion. The Giants advance to the New England six-yard line where Ahmad Bradshaw scores with 57 seconds left.

On This Day In Sports History

February 3, 2002 — The Patriots win the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history by beating the heavily favored St. Louis Rams 20-17. The New England quarterback is second year pro Tom Brady. The Patriots win on a 48-yard field goal by Adam Vinatieri as time expires.​