At the start of December, the NFL MVP hunt is down to a two-quarterback race. Drake Maye from the New England Patriots is the new betting favorite to win the MVP at -120 odds, according to a recent update by BetMGM. Maye overtook Matthew Stafford from the Los Angeles Rams, who is now at +115 odds.
Birth of a New Legend: Drake Maye (-120)
After struggling to find an heir apparent for Tom Brady, the Patriots struck paydirt by selecting Drake Maye with the third pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. In his second season, an efficient Maye completed 71.5 percent of his passes for 3,412 yards and 23 touchdowns. He also added a couple of rushing touchdowns. The Patriots have a top-three passing attack, averaging 249.7 yards per game. They’re ranked #7 in scoring, averaging 27.0 ppg.
The Patriots were the first team in the NFL to reach 10 wins this season. They have the best record in the NFL at 11-2 and currently occupy the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs.
After a sluggish 1-2 start, the Patriots won 10 games in a row. They took advantage of a soft schedule, but skeptics are unsure if they can win in the playoffs. That’s why the Patriots are only +1000 odds to win the Super Bowl as the sixth-highest team on the futures board.
In the preseason, Maye was +6000 odds to win the MVP and was not even listed among the Top 20 favorites. You can back Maye right now at -120 odds.
Overdue MVP: Matthew Stafford (+115)
In his previous 16 seasons in the NFL, including a dozen with the Detroit Lions, Stafford never won the MVP. In his fifth season with the Rams and his 17th overall, oddsmakers pegged Stafford as an MVP long shot at +5000 odds. He didn’t see any action in the preseason due to a back injury, and the future looked gloomy.
Stafford suited up in Week 1 and started every game this season. After he developed chemistry with free-agent wide receiver Davante Adams, Stafford emerged as an MVP favorite. Stafford leads the sixth-best scoring offense in the NFL that averages 27.8 ppg. The Rams’ passing attack averages 246.6 yards per game, which is ranked fourth overall.
Through 12 games, Stafford completed 66.3 percent of his passes for 3,073 yards, 32 touchdowns, and four interceptions. He’s on pace to exceed 4,000 passing yards in a season for the 10th time in his career. If he can throw 10 more touchdowns, he’ll break his single-season record of 41.
At the start of December, the Rams (9-3) are tied for the most wins in the NFC, and their three losses were all decided by one score. If the season ended today, the Rams would secure the #2 seed in the playoffs.
The Rams are the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl at +450 odds according to BetMGM, and you can back Stafford at a little more than even money to win the MVP at +115.
Here Come the Cheeseheads: Jordan Love (+1500)
After defeating the Lions on Thanksgiving, the Green Bay Packers are now the third favorite to win the Super Bowl at +850 odds.
An inconsistent Jordan Love struggled in November and threw zero touchdowns in three different games. He bounced back with an impressive performance on Thanksgiving. Love looked like an MVP candidate when he flung four touchdowns in a victory against their division rival.
Even though Love has not put up eye-popping stats, he’s a consummate game manager and protects the ball. He threw only three interceptions this season, and his last pick occurred in Week 9.
We’ll see if the Packers are really an elite team and if Love is a legit MVP threat with three difficult games on their upcoming schedule. The Packers square off against the Chicago Bears twice in the next three weeks. They also hit the road to play the Broncos in Denver in Week 15.
Dallas Upswing: Dak Prescott (+1500)
The Dallas Cowboys plugged serious leaks in their defense since the trade deadline. In the last two weeks, they defeated both of last year’s Super Bowl participants, including an impressive victory against the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12 and a big win against the Kansas City Chiefs on Thanksgiving.
The Cowboys have an outstanding offense thanks to Dak Prescott. Heading into Week 14, the Cowboys were ranked #2 in scoring by averaging 29.3 ppg. In his first 12 starts, Prescott led the NFL in passing by averaging 271.3 yards per game. He’s on pace to pass over 30 touchdowns for a fourth time in his career. He threw over 300 yards four times in the first 12 games and exceeded 350 yards twice.
Back-to-Back: Josh Allen (+2500)
Josh Allen, the reigning MVP, began the preseason among the MVP co-favorites with Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels. After a hot 4-0 start by the Buffalo Bills, Allen opened a large lead in the MVP race.
When the Bills lost two games in a row in October, Allen’s odds began to drop. It bottomed out after two more losses in November. Allen threw only four interceptions in their first eight games, but he’s been erratic over the last four games with six interceptions.
Allen’s passing stats are off from last season (2,832 yards, 19 touchdowns, 10 interceptions) because the Bills lack a superstar wide receiver. Tight end Dalton Kincaid is tied for the team lead with four touchdowns.
Allen contributed 11 rushing touchdowns in 12 games. Even though he’s not running as much as he did in the past, he has a chance to break his previous record of 15 rushing touchdowns.
If the Bills (8-4) get hot again and somehow overtake the Patriots for first place in the AFC East, then Allen will see another spike in his MVP odds.
Settling Down in Seattle: Sam Darnold +6000
The Seattle Seahawks are +750 odds to win the Super Bowl as the second betting favorite at BetMGM. However, Sam Darnold is sixth overall on the awards board at +6000 odds to win the MVP.
The Seahawks (9-3) are currently in second place in the top-heavy NFC West behind the Rams. They would secure a Wild Card spot as the #5 seed if the season ended today.
Darnold, playing for his fifth team since 2020, started for four different teams in the last four seasons. Despite leading the Minnesota Vikings to a 15-2 record last year, the front office made a terrible decision by not offering Darnold a contract extension in the offseason. The Seahawks jumped at a chance to replace Geno Smith with Darnold.
Darnold is completing a career-best 68.2 percent of his passes for 2,193 yards and 19 touchdowns. Through 12 games, he also has the best QB rating of his career at 103.1. The Seahawks have a top-five offense by averaging 29.2 ppg.
Long Shot: Patrick Mahomes (+10000)
It’s crazy to think that Patrick Mahomes is a long shot to win the MVP at +10000 because the Chiefs (6-6) might miss the playoffs. They’re in 10th place in the AFC standings and need a lot of help if they expect to sneak into the postseason through the back door. It’s possible if the Chiefs secure a Wild Card spot by winning their remaining five games and both the Jacksonville Jaguars and L.A. Chargers choke down the stretch. For now, Mahomes is heavily priced to win his third MVP award, but his odds should shrink if the Chiefs make a late-season surge.
Non-QBs: Jonathan Taylor (+10000), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+10000)
The NFL is a pass-happy league these days, which is why quarterbacks dominate the MVP space. A running back has won the MVP only three times since 2001. Adrian Peterson was the last running back to win the MVP in 2012.
Jonathan Taylor from the Indianapolis Colts is the top contender to win the NFL rushing title. Taylor leads the NFL with 1,282 yards through 12 games. He averages 5.7 yards per carry and scored 17 total touchdowns. Taylor is a long shot to win the MVP at +10000 yards.
A wide receiver has never won the MVP. Despite that historical trend, Jaxon Smith-Njigba from the Seahawks is the highest wide receiver on the MVP awards board at +10000 odds. Smith-Njigba leads the league with 1,336 yards and has scored seven touchdowns.
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