NFL Playoffs: Lions, Chiefs Lead Conference Futures for the Final 8

The Rams and Redskins are the surprise quarter finalists in the race to the Super Bowl, but each team faces the monsters of the NFC. And in the AFC, the Chiefs and the Bills seem headed for a collision.

Eight teams remain in the NFL Playoffs heading into the Divisional Round. Each team is now only three victories away from winning the Super Bowl, but two from securing a conference championship.

The Detroit Lions are still the consensus favorite to win the Super Bowl at +280 odds, and the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs are second on the board at BetMGM at +350. Both had the benefit of a bye last weekend as a coveted #1 seed, and it’s not surprising to see both squads are favorites to win their respective conference.

The Lions are +110 odds to win the NFC Championship and advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history. The Chiefs are +140 odds to win a third-straight AFC Championship and return to the Super Bowl to defend their crown.

Here’s a quick rundown of the eight remaining teams:

Detroit Lions (15-2)

Seed: NFC #1

NFC Championship Odds: +110

Super Bowl Odds: +280

The Lions led the NFL in scoring this season with 33.3 points per game. Their underrated defense was seventh overall allowing 20.1 ppg, which is remarkable considering how many starters went down with injuries this season.

The Lions are clearly the team to beat at +280 odds to win the Super Bowl and +110 odds to win the NFC Championship. They’re also the biggest favorite on the board entering the Divisional Round. They opened as a -10.5 favorite over the Commanders, but early money backed the Commanders, and the line moved a full point to -9.5.

The high-scoring Lions were the best betting team in the NFL this season at 12-5. Since Dan Campbell took over as head coach, the Lions covered the point spread at an astonishing 69% clip. Since Campbell took over in 2021, the Lions are 49-22 ATS. The Bengals (61.1%) are the only other team covering more than 60% over the last four seasons.

 

 

 

 

Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

Seed: NFC #2

NFC Championship Odds: +160

Super Bowl Odds: +400

If you adhere to the old-school mentality, then the Eagles might be your team because they have a great defense and running game which are key essentials to winning playoff games. The Eagles had the second-best defense during the regular season allowing 17.8 ppg. They also had the second-best rushing attack averaging 179.3 yards per game thanks to Saquon Barkley.

The Eagles had the second-best betting record in the regular season at 11-6 and they covered the spread last week against the Green Bay Packers. They opened as a -6 favorite against the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional Round.

If you haven’t jumped on the Lions bandwagon, the Eagles are a worthy alternative to win the NFC Championship for the second time in the last three seasons.

Los Angeles Rams (10-7)

Seed: NFC #4

NFC Championship Odds: +700

Super Bowl Odds: +1800

Most teams do not prefer an early bye week, but the Rams had a bye in Week 6 which helped turn their season around. With injuries to their two wide receivers, the Rams looked awful with a 1-4 record in their first five games. They won three games in a row after their bye to get back on track. Once Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned from injuries, they went on a 9-2 run and locked up a playoff berth by coming from behind to win the NFC West.

The Rams have a slight disadvantage of playing on shorter rest since after defeating the Vikings on Monday night, and they face the Eagles in an early slot on Sunday.

The Rams opened +6 against the Eagles. They posted a 6-1 ATS over their last seven games, and they’re 9-3 ATS since the end of October.

The Rams are not the biggest longshot on the board, but they’re still +700 to win the NFC and +1800 to win the Super Bowl. There’s no shortage of Philly haters out there, so they’ll be rooting for the Rams to pull off an upset this weekend.

 

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Washington Commanders (12-5)

Seed: NFC #6

NFC Championship Odds: +1100

Super Bowl Odds: +3000

The Commanders are the #6 seed, but they had the fourth-best record in the NFC this season and were one of only seven NFL teams with 12 victories. They edged out the #3 Tampa Bay Bucs in dramatic fashion on a last-second field goal in the only close game in the AFC Wild Card weekend.

The Commanders are the biggest underdog in the Divisional Round and currently +9.5 against the top-seeded Lions. Betting-wise, the Commanders were 11-6-1 ATS this season.

With rookie Jayden Daniels at quarterback, they Commanders are a live dog. Daniels went 5-3 as a starter in away games this season including 3-1 over his last four road starts. If the Commanders can defeat the Lions, then there’s no reason to think they cannot run the table and win the Super Bowl.

Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)

Seed: AFC #1

AFC Championship Odds: +140

Super Bowl Odds: +350

If you believe in the Taylor Swift Effect or “Tay-Voodoo” as the Swifties call it, then grab the Chiefs at +140 odds to win the AFC and +350 odds to become the first team in NFL history to win a Super Bowl in three consecutive seasons.

Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to a berth in the AFC Championship Game in each of the last six seasons. They won the AFC Championship four times in the last five seasons, and they seek a third-straight trip to the Super Bowl.

The Chiefs have one of the worst betting records among the final eight playoff teams at 8-9 ATS. Their lo-fi offense generates just enough points to win games, but sharp bettors have been fading them as a big favorite. The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS when they’re a favorite of more than a touchdown this season. They won all five of those games, but only by a small margin.

The Chiefs and Houston Texans squared off in Kansas City in Week 16. The Chiefs won by eight and covered the point spread that closed at -3.5. They’re now a -8 favorite in a rematch.

 

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Buffalo Bills (13-4)

Seed: AFC #2

AFC Championship Odds: +240

Super Bowl Odds: +550

The Bills vs. Ravens game should be the best matchup in the Divisional Round. You can make a strong argument that the victor will win the AFC Championship and end the Chiefs’ reign. The Bills are a slight favorite at -1 but it would not surprise me to see this huge game as a pick’em by kickoff.

The Bills are third on the board at +240 odds to win the AFC. They’re also the third-highest AFC team in Super Bowl odds at +550. It’s tough to find true value with eight teams remaining, but the Bills offer the best prices in the AFC.

If you’re obsessed with lake-effect snow and love to monitor the weather during the NFL Playoffs, the outlook is promising for the Bills with a 50 percent chance of snow this weekend and low temperatures in the teens estimated for Sunday.

Baltimore Ravens (12-5)

Seed: AFC #3

AFC Championship Odds: +225

Super Bowl Odds: +450

After several disappointing playoff performances, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens finally advanced to the AFC Championship last postseason. However, they lost a low-scoring game against the Chiefs and the Chiefs went on to win back-to-back Super Bowls.

Jackson and the Ravens began this season on a mission to finally win the AFC Championship and punch their ticket to the Super Bowl. The path will not be easy because the Ravens must win on the road to beat the Bills in Buffalo and presumably win another away game against the Chiefs in Kansas City.

The addition of running back Derrick Henry gives the Ravens a better chance to win the AFC crown this postseason. In his first year with the Ravens, Henry was the top rusher in the AFC and was second overall in the race for the NFL’s prestigious rushing title (which was won by Saquon Barkley). With the dangerous duo of Henry and Jackson, the Ravens have the top rushing attack in the NFL.

It’s unfortunate that the Ravens and Bills must meet in the Divisional Round, but a win this weekend will give the victor a huge momentum boost heading into the AFC title game. The Ravens are +225 odds to win the AFC Championship and +450 odds to win the Super Bowl.

Houston Texans (10-7)

Seed: AFC #4

AFC Championship Odds: +1800

Super Bowl Odds: +5000

The Texans were inconsistent all season, but they looked strong with a victory in Wild Card Weekend over the Los Angeles Chargers. Even without their top two wide receivers, CJ Stroud and the Texans scored 32 points against the best defense in the league that held opponents to 17.7 ppg this season. Stroud completed passes to eight different teammates. Nico Collins hauled in seven catches for 122 yards and a touchdown. Joe Mixon also rushed for 106 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries.

The Texans return to Arrowhead Stadium for a rematch against the Chiefs. The outlook is grim because oddsmakers do not have faith in the Texans. BetMGM installed the Texans as the big longshot on the board at +1800 odds to win the AFC Championship and +5000 odds to win the Super Bowl.

 


 

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