Four teams remain in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy and each just one win away from the Super Bowl. Both #1 seeds are still alive and hosting their respective conference championship games.
In the AFC Championship, the #2 New England Patriots (14-3) visit the Mile High City to play the #1 Denver Broncos (14-3). In the NFC Championship, the #5 Los Angeles Rams (12-5) head up to the Pacific Northwest to play the #1 Seattle Seahawks (14-3).
According to the latest odds from BetMGM, the Seahawks are the consensus favorite to win the Super Bowl at +150. The Rams are second on the futures board at +220, followed by the Patriots at +250. The Broncos remain the longshot at +1300.
AFC Championship: #2 New England Patriots at #1 Denver Broncos (+5, OU 40.5)
The Broncos’ path to the Super Bowl took a devastating turn last Sunday when second-year quarterback Bo Nix broke his ankle on the penultimate play of their victory over the Buffalo Bills. He’s out for the remainder of the playoffs after undergoing surgery.
The Patriots are 2-0 in the postseason and 2-0 against the spread, including the playoffs. During the regular season, the Patriots were 13-5-1 ATS and covered their last five games. The Patriots lost just once since late September under first-year head coach Mike Vrabel, who helped rebuild the team faster than anyone expected.
The line opened with the Broncos at +5.5 and could climb as high as a touchdown by kickoff. The Broncos are 8-9-1 ATS overall.
Pick: Patriots -5
Broncos Analysis: Broken Ankles, Broken Dreams
Head coach Sean Payton has faith that his Broncos can still win the AFC Championship and advance to the Super Bowl with a backup quarterback, but the vibes in Denver are undeniably bleak.
The Broncos are the largest home underdog in a conference championship since the AFL-NFL merger. They also find themselves as a rare home dog in the AFC Championship as a #1 seed. The last time that happened was back in the 2016 AFC title game between the Patriots and Broncos. Peyton Manning and the Broncos defeated Tom Brady and the Patriots, 20-18, before going on to win Super Bowl 50.
The circumstances could not be any more different 10 years later. The current Broncos do not have a Hall of Fame quarterback in Manning, albeit in the twilight of his career, under center, ready to valiantly lead his troops into battle for one last moment of glory. Instead, the Broncos must rely on little-used backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham.
Stidham, a former fourth-round draft pick from Auburn, has a career record of 1-3 as a starter. He went 1-1 in 2023 for the Broncos when he filled in for an injured Russell Wilson. Stidham hasn’t attempted a pass since that season.
Will the market overreact to the Nix injury, or are the Broncos truly doomed? The Broncos boast a stout defense (ranked third in the NFL, allowing 18.3 ppg) and have been dominant at home, going 9-1, including the playoffs. Even without Nix, you really can’t count out the Broncos against a team that hasn’t faced many challenging opponents, especially in a hostile road environment.
The Broncos opened at +3300 odds to win Super Bowl 60, improved to +2200 in the preseason, then bottomed out at +4000 in Week 3 after a 1-2 start. An 11-game winning streak vaulted them into the top five favorites by Week 14. The Broncos began the postseason as the third-favorite to win the championship at +650.
Patriots Analysis: Easy Road to the Super Bowl
The Patriots are one victory away from returning to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 2017 season, when Bill Belichick and Brady punctuated their dynasty with a sixth championship in Super Bowl 53.
The Patriots benefited from one of the NFL’s easiest regular-season schedules in recent years. Their playoff path has also been a cake walk. They outscored the L.A. Chargers and Houston Texans a combined 44-19.
The Patriots held the Chargers to three points in the Wild Card, exploiting a porous offensive line devastated by injuries, while Justin Herbert once again struggled in the postseason.
On paper, the Texans represented the toughest defense that the Patriots faced this season, yet they scored 28 points thanks to five turnovers and juicy field position. C.J. Stroud threw four interceptions, including a pick-six, and he never gave the Texans a chance to compete, turning in one of the worst playoff performances by a starting quarterback in the last 25 years.
The Patriots now square off against a backup quarterback in Stidham, who has four career starts under his belt and no postseason appearances. Although they face the Broncos in Denver, the Patriots were a perfect 8-0 on the road this season.
After back-to-back 4-13 seasons, oddsmakers showed little faith in the Patriots, who opened at +6500 odds to win the Super Bowl, then bottomed out at +1200 after a 1-2 start. They finished the season on a 13-1 run and entered the playoffs as the fourth favorite at +900.
NFC Championship: #5 L.A. Rams at #1 Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, OU 47.5)
Many purists see this matchup as the real Super Bowl with the two best teams in the NFL colliding in the NFC Championship. These NFC West rivals split their regular-season meetings, with the home team winning each time. Both games were decided by a combined three points. The Rams edged out the Seahawks by two points in Week 11. The Seahawks got revenge in Week 16 when they beat the Rams by one point in a 38-37 overtime thriller. The rubber match will be played in Seattle with a Super Bowl berth on the line.
The Seahawks are 13-5 ATS, including the playoffs, and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games. The Rams are 12-7 ATS overall but failed to cover in both of their postseason games.
Pick: Rams +2.5
Seahawks Analysis: Darnold or Bust
The Seahawks finished the regular season with the NFL’s best scoring defense (17.2 ppg) and the top-rated team in defensive DVOA. In their lone playoff game, they held the San Francisco 49ers to six points and pitched a shutout in the second half.
The Seahawks are anchored by a smothering defense nicknamed “Dark Side” by their players, yet the Rams were not intimidated. In their two divisional tilts, the Rams’ offensive line allowed zero sacks against an ineffective Seahawks pass rush, while Matthew Stafford threw five touchdowns without an interception.
The Seahawks played sloppily against the Rams, committing seven turnovers in two games. Sam Darnold struggled, completing only two touchdowns while tossing six interceptions.
Under offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, the Seahawks generated the NFL’s third-best scoring offense with 28.4 ppg. However, the Rams’ defense slowed down the Seahawks. They were plagued by slow starts and trailed at halftime in both games, scoring only 16 first-half points in four quarters.
Darnold popped up on the injury report late last week after straining his left oblique muscle in practice. He received a Toradol injection before kickoff, and he gutted through the pain in an easy win over a San Francisco defense decimated with injuries.
If a healthy Darnold struggled against the Rams in the regular season, it’s fair to wonder how he’ll respond with a lingering core injury.
The Seahawks also lost one of their most lethal red-zone weapons when running back Zach Charbonnet tore his ACL against the 49ers. Charbonnet led the Seahawks with 12 rushing touchdowns this season, and he was second overall in rushing yards with 730.
Oddsmakers were not bullish on the Seahawks after they replaced quarterback Geno Smith with Darnold, opening at +6500 odds to win the Super Bowl then drifting to +8000 in the preseason. They steadily improved throughout the season despite a Week 11 hiccup against the Rams. The Seahawks emerged as the Super Bowl front-runner after they defeated the Rams in Week 16. They entered the playoffs as the consensus favorite at +350 odds, and are now priced at +150.
Rams Analysis: Staying Alive, Stafford Heroics
It hasn’t been pretty, but the Rams reached the NFC Championship game. The Rams narrowly escaped an NFC Wild Card matchup against the Carolina Panthers before they needed overtime to fend off the Chicago Bears during a cold and snowy Divisional Round battle. Despite a nagging finger injury, quarterback Matthew Stafford proved he’s worthy of the MVP with late-game heroics in both victories.
Then again, close games have been a theme for the Rams all season. Nine games were decided by one score or less. Both games against the Seahawks were close, with a two-point victory and a one-point loss.
Although the Rams split their two divisional games against the Seahawks, they should’ve won the second meeting on Thursday Night Football in mid-December. While playing a road game on short rest, the Rams blew a 30-14 lead in the fourth quarter and lost in overtime. Despite the loss, the Rams still scored 37 points and tallied 581 yards against the NFL’s top defense, all without Davante Adams, who missed the game with a hamstring injury.
In two games against the league’s premier defense, the Rams converted six out of 10 opportunities in the red zone, and the Seahawks induced only one turnover.
Sean McVay is one win away from leading the Rams to a third Super Bowl appearance in eight seasons. The Rams were among the Top 10 Super Bowl contenders at +2800 odds when oddsmakers opened the futures market for Super Bowl 60. By Week 11, the Rams were 8-2 and surged to the betting favorite. They held the top spot for six weeks, peaking at +320 odds in Week 15, before the Seahawks overtook them late in the season. The Rams entered the postseason as the second overall favorite at +425.
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