The first thing you notice in the Open Championship history books is the names who have hoisted the iconic Claret Jug after successfully navigating Royal Birkdale Golf Club, the site of this week’s Open Championship that begins Thursday morning.
There’s Jordan Spieth (2017), Padraig Harrington (2008), Mark O’Meara (1998), Ian Baker-Finch (1991), Tom Watson (1983), Johnny Miller (1976), Lee Trevino (1971), Peter Thomson (1954, 1965), and Arnold Palmer (1961). Not a poseur in the bunch.
Yes, Royal Birkdale rewards class. It also rewards classy shot-making, as the aforementioned names attest. As legions of players have said on an endless loop, “It’s all right there in front of you.” Which it is: all 7,223 yards and 108 bunkers that await the world’s best players in the season’s final major championship.
A classic links layout, Royal Birkdale is shaped by eight architects who have provided various modifications since the course’s arrival at its current site in 1897. Its flat fairways are framed by sand dunes, and its flat greens are less feral than other major championship sites due to the course’s proximity to the Irish Sea and its gale-force gusts.
Royal Birkdale may be out there. But do not attempt to overpower it. The course’s defenses lie not only in the customary wind, but in thick fescue rough and those massive sand dunes that mess with club selection. The changing wind directions add to the test.
Like all links courses in the Open rota, Royal Birkdale is at the mercy of Mother Nature. When the wind is calm and the conditions benign, the players will tear the course apart. Nine years ago, Spieth won his third major championship at 12-under-par, and Branden Grace applied the exclamation point to the course dismantling with an 8-under 62 in the third round, the first sub-63 in major championship history. When Spieth lifted the Claret Jug, he did so on a day where the scoring average was 69.03.
Compare that to nine years earlier, when Harrington won his Open at 3-over 283—the only winning aggregate over-par score this century. That year, the scoring average was 74.869. A decade earlier, O’Meara vanquished Brian Watts in a playoff after both finished at even-par 280.
This year’s forecast is for temperatures in the 80s, so expect that heat wave to provide a heat wave of sub-par rounds.
Here’s who we like to epitomize that heat wave on the course.
Rory McIlroy and Matt Fitzpatrick to Both Finish Top 5 (+1900 at BetMGM) and Top 10 (+625 at BetMGM)
You can get McIlroy at +900 and Fitzpatrick at a plunging +1200 to win. But this combo offers much better value, especially with Fitzpatrick, who opened as high as +2050 at one book. McIlroy is -118; Fitzpatrick +150 to go top 10 by themselves—neither of which we want any part of here.
But we want the sum that is greater than the parts here. McIlroy hasn’t hoisted the Claret Jug in 12 years, which is mind-boggling when you look at his Open record. Including his 2014 victory, McIlroy has seven top 10s, including a T4 at Royal Birkdale nine years ago. His form is equally stellar: two top 10s—with that T7 at the Scottish Open last week—and strokes gained in his last four events.
Fitzpatrick, the 2022 U.S. Open champion, brings in even better form. He owns three wins and seven top 10s this season. This includes his T3 at the Scottish Open last week, his fourth at the Travelers three weeks ago and his second at the Canadian Open five weeks ago.
Statistically, Fitzpatrick is even more impressive: first in Strokes Gained: Approach and Around the Green, second in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, third in Strokes Gained: Total. He’s hitting 68.3 percent of his fairways, which is key at Royal Birkdale. If his streaky putter behaves, there’s no reason why Fitzpatrick can’t duplicate—or improve—on his T4 in last year’s Open.
Robert MacIntyre to Win (+3300 at BetMGM)
It’s about time the left-handed Scot wins a major, and it’s about time we jump on his bandwagon in case he does. And this is as good a time as any for MacIntyre to win that first major.
The optimism comes from his T3 finish at the Scottish Open last week, which came with a sterling 2.49 strokes gained on approach. That was his third top 15 finish in his last four events. It also comes with three top-10 finishes in the Open since 2019, including last year’s T7. MacIntyre always seems to be in the hunt, and he’s the kind of the big-game player we like to bag as bettors.
Russell Henley to Finish Top 5 (+750 at BetMGM)
Three years ago, we took a flier on Brian Harman at +11000, earning us bragging rights in perpetuity when he won at Royal Liverpool. While you can get this ultimate tour grinder at a tamer +5000 to win, we like a hedgier bet to crack the top 5 at a nice price.
Why do we like this? Henley leads the PGA Tour in fairways hit. He’s third in scrambling and fourth in bogey avoidance. All of this travels well to Royal Birkdale, thanks to the thick rough that penalizes wayward drives and Henley’s ability to avoid trouble around the greens.
But here’s why we really love Henley, and it doesn’t correlate to his fifth at Royal Troon two years ago or his T10 at Royal Portrush last year. Henley leads the tour in Final Round Performance, improving his position from Saturday to Sunday an incredible 91.67 percent of the time. His final round scoring average is 68.5, meaning Henley finishes better than he starts.
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