Super Bowl LIX will feature the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs battling on the biggest stage in sports. Everyone will be going through all kinds of props and sides trying to find an edge in this game, but one of the most popular players to bet on will clearly be Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The three-time Super Bowl champion will look for yet another ring, and his player props are going to be heavily bet in the days leading up to kickoff.
Here’s some early betting data from BetMGM on some of the most popular props on Kansas City’s superstar.
Passing Yards
Open: 254.5
Current: 252.5
Ticket%: 52% Under
Money%: 56% Over
Interestingly, the line for his passing yards has gone down from 254.5 to 252.5, despite 56 percent of the money being on the Over. The only way that’s possible is if some serious sharp action came in on the Under, which likely has happened here. The public is on the Under as well, but just barely.
Passing Touchdowns
Open: 1.5
Current: 1.5
Ticket%: 88% Over
Money%: 96% Over
Everyone and their brother is betting on Mahomes to have at least two passing touchdowns in this game. A massive 88 percent of tickets and 96 percent of cash is on him to do so. However, I would be very cautious with this one. With that sharp action coming in on his Under passing yards, this could indicate they’ll be running the ball more than they typically do.
Interceptions
Open: 0.5
Current: 0.5
Ticket%: 59% Over
Money%: 64% Over
It seems a majority of bettors also think that Mahomes is going to throw an interception in the game. With the Eagles passing defense ranked No. 1, Mahomes may not be asked to pass a ton. So this bet gets a little tricky.
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Passing Completions
Open: 24.5
Current: 24.5
Ticket%: 89% Under
Money%: 95% Under
Once again, we have a prop that is getting an overwhelming amount of action on one side. Absolutely no one thinks Mahomes is going to complete 25 passes in this game. I’d have to agree with them, as I don’t think he is going to go off through the air, but it certainly is a bit worrisome that everyone else thinks that way as well.
Passing Attempts
Open: 36.5
Current: 36.5
Ticket%: 59% Under
Money%: 88% Under
There has been some serious sharp action on this one, with a lot of professional money seemingly coming in on the Under. This coincides with the Under for the passing yards we talked about earlier, so it wasn’t shocking to see this. The Chiefs are favored here, and if they manage to get out to a lead, that just means less passing for Patrick.
Rushing Yards
Open: 28.5
Current: 40.5
Ticket%: 62% Under
Money%: 74% Under
Here’s another instance where the line has moved dramatically from the open. Within minutes, this line started shooting up from 28.5, and now it has gotten all the way to 40.5. Curiously, a majority of bets and money is on the Under, and yet that line kept going up and up. We could see some serious Mahomes scrambling in this one, but now that the line is up to 40.5, has it gone too far?
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Rushing Attempts
Open: 4.5
Current: 5.5
Ticket%: 98% Over
Money%: 99% Over
This is the first wager that’s receiving 99 percent of the money on Patrick Mahomes. There is some large liability here on him to scramble six times, and the book will very much be hoping that he decides to stay in the pocket as much as possible.
Longest Rush
Open: 12.5
Current: 11.5
Ticket%: 99% Over
Money%: 98% Over
This line opened at 12.5 and is receiving 99 percent of tickets and 98 percent of money to the Over, and yet, the line moved down to 11.5. That’s extremely curious, is it not?
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Longest Completion
Open: 35.5
Current: 35.5
Ticket%: 99% Over
Money%: 99% Over
Almost every dollar and ticket is taking his Over 35.5 longest completion, and yet, the line hasn’t moved an inch.
Passing + Rushing Yards
Open: 287.5
Current: 285.5
Ticket%: 67% Under
Money%: 56% Over
This one is just like his passing yards, with 56 percent of the cash on the Over, and yet the line has moved down from 287.5 to 285.5. My best bet for his props is taking his Under in terms of yards through the air and passing attempts. The Chiefs may stick to the ground game a lot in this game, at least, more than the oddsmakers think.
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