Eight teams remain after an exhilarating and bone-crushing Wild Card Weekend. The NFL Divisional Playoffs arrive with battered quarterbacks and a Super Bowl race that is still wide open.
The well-rested Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos are fresh off a bye week as #1 seeds. Meanwhile, quarterbacks like Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen were dinged up in their Wild Card games.
Three NFC West teams are still alive, and two of them are betting favorites to win Super Bowl 60, according to BetMGM. The Seahawks are the consensus favorite at +275, followed by the Los Angeles Rams at +310. The New England Patriots are the highest AFC team on the futures board at +600. Also still in the hunt are the Buffalo Bills (+650), Broncos (+700), Houston Texans (+850), Chicago Bears (+1600), and San Francisco 49ers (+1900).
#6 Buffalo Bills at #1 Denver Broncos (+1.5, OU 46.5)
This is a rematch of last season’s AFC Wild Card when the Bills barely broke a sweat in a 31-7 victory over the Broncos.
The Broncos (14–3) find themselves in an unusual spot in the Divisional Round. They’re a home underdog despite holding the #1 seed, becoming only the third team in NFL history to do so. The bookies are underestimating the Broncos, who have revenge on their minds. Denver will host its first home playoff game in a decade and is seeking its first postseason win since capturing the Super Bowl following the 2015 season.
Oddsmakers opened the Bills (14–3) as slight road favorites after they knocked off the #3 Jacksonville Jaguars in the Wild Card. They were cautious about Josh Allen’s health entering the playoffs, who was dinged up with a late-season ankle injury. He absorbed a couple of brutal hits in the Bills’ win against the Jaguars and was even evaluated for a potential concussion in the first half. The tough Allen shrugged off the punishment, engineered a game-winning drive, and led Buffalo to a comeback victory.
The Bills have met their demise in the AFC Divisional Round in three of the past four seasons, falling to either the Kansas City Chiefs or Cincinnati Bengals. They square off against a well-rested Broncos team on their home turf in the thin air of Colorado. Denver boasts the third-best defense in the NFL, allowing just 18.3 points per game this season.
The Broncos have a 7-9-1 record against the spread (ATS) and went only 3-5 ATS in the second half of the season. The Bills are 9-9 ATS this season. This might be too close to call due to Bo Nix’s lack of postseason experience. Even though the Bills posted the fourth-highest scoring offense in the league at 28.3 ppg, we like the Under in this one. This game features two of the AFC’s better defenses. The Broncos have the second-best run defense in the NFL, allowing only 91.1 yards per game, and now they get a chance to slow down the league’s top rushing attack led by James Cook and Allen.
Pick: Under 46.5, Lean Broncos +1.5
#6 San Francisco 49ers at #1 Seattle Seahawks (-7, OU 45.5)
The 49ers (12-5) lost tight end George Kittle to an Achilles tear, yet still rallied to beat the Philadelphia Eagles, 23-19, in the NFC Wild Card. Christian McCaffrey rushed for just 48 yards but added 66 receiving yards and caught two touchdowns, including a trick-play pass from wide receiver Jauan Jennings. Without Ricky Pearsall, Demarcus Robinson stepped up with six catches for 111 yards and one touchdown.
After a tortured run as head coach of the New York Jets, Robert Saleh returned to the San Francisco 49ers and to his old job as defensive coordinator. Despite a roster ravaged with injuries, their defense was a major factor in their Wild Card win. They kept the Eagles in check with three three-and-out possessions and held the defending Super Bowl champions to just two field goals and six total points in the second half.
The Seahawks (14-3) lost to the 49ers, 17-13, in the season opener. They went 14-2 over the next 16 games and finished the regular season with a seven-game winning streak. The Seahawks avenged their Week 1 loss by defeating the 49ers, 13-3, in Week 18. They locked up the NFC West title and the #1 seed, earning them a bye last weekend. These division rivals now meet for the second time in a three-week span.
Both meetings this season were low-scoring affairs. Although the Seahawks only won their rematch by 10 points, the game was not as close as the final score indicated. Jason Myers missed a couple of field goals, and the 49ers struggled to find the end zone against the Seahawks’ smothering defense, which shut them out in the second half. The Seahawks’ run defense limited Christian McCaffrey to only 28 rushing yards and held Brock Purdy to 127 passing yards, with one interception and three sacks.
The Seahawks finished the season as the NFL’s supreme scoring defense, allowing just 17.2 ppg. Expect another defensive slog, especially with Kittle out. The Total opened at 46.5, and early money backed the Under.
The Seahawks were one of the league’s best betting teams this season, posting a 12-5 ATS record, including a 9-3 ATS mark since early October. After last week’s Wild Card win, the 49ers improved to 11-6-1 ATS and went 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
Pick: Seahawks -7, Under 45.5
#5 Houston Texans at #2 New England Patriots (-2.5, OU 40.5)
The Texans (12-5) are the hottest team in the NFL right now. They’re riding a 10-game winning streak that includes a dominating victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Wild Card. Their ironclad defense did not allow a touchdown, holding the Steelers to six points in the first half while pitching a shutout in the second half.
The Patriots (14-3) secured the #2 seed thanks in part to the league’s easiest schedule, but they passed their first real test by picking off the L.A. Chargers in the Wild Card. The Patriots ranked second in scoring this season with 28.8 ppg, though that production came against inferior defenses. Drake Maye posted MVP-like numbers, completing 72 percent of his passes for 4,394 yards and 31 touchdowns (plus four rushing scores). He’ll face his toughest challenge when the Texans visit Foxboro. The Texans allowed only 17.4 ppg as the NFL’s second-best scoring defense. And they’re ranked fourth in overall DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and second in defensive DVOA.
The Patriots have covered four games in a row and are now 12-5-1 ATS. The Texans are 10-8 ATS, including the playoffs, but went 6-2 Over their last eight games. For totals bettors who like backing the Under, the Texans were one of the league’s best, posting a 11-6-1 record.
Pick: Texans +2.5, Under 40.5
#5 L.A. Rams at #2 Chicago Bears (+4.5, OU 51.5)
The feisty Carolina Panthers put up a good fight in the NFC Wild Card. The Rams (12-5) failed to cover as a double-digit favorite. For a second straight weekend in a row, the Rams are a road favorite against a division winner. Matthew Stafford injured his hand early against the Panthers but still finished with 304 yards and three touchdowns. He shook off the pain and tossed a game-winning touchdown late in the fourth quarter to seal a 34-31 victory. The Rams said that Stafford avoided a major hand injury and is good to go against the Bears.
The Bears pulled off late-game heroics to defeat the Green Bay Packers in the Wild Card round, rallying from a 21-3 halftime deficit to beat their division rivals. Down 21-6, the Bears scored 25 points in the fourth quarter for their greatest comeback in franchise playoff history. The Bears secured their first home playoff win since 2010, which felt even sweeter coming at the expense of the Packers.
The Bears find themselves hosting another playoff game as a home dog with the line opening at +4.5. They might have enough offense to keep pace with the high-octane Rams, but their shoddy defense remains a massive liability.
The Bears finished with the 10th-worst defense in the NFL, allowing 24.4 ppg, and surrendered 27 points to the Packers in the Wild Card. Meanwhile, the Rams led the league in scoring, averaging 30.5 ppg.
The Bears are 11-7 ATS this season, including the playoffs, with a 6-3 ATS record in their last nine games. The Rams are 12-6 ATS, including a 9-4 ATS clip in their last 13 games. The Over has hit in seven straight Rams games.
This shapes up to be an entertaining matchup featuring two of the NFL’s premier offensive minds in the NFL with Sean McVay and Ben Johnson. With the Bears hosting the game in Chicago, colder temperatures could be a factor. Keep a close eye on the weather leading up to the kickoff on Sunday evening.
Pick: Rams -4.5, Lean Over 51.5
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