We’re back … for one more week.
And we brought two relegation-bait teams along for the ride, so you might as well get a last peek at Sheffield United and Luton Town before they return to the Championship.
You’ve seen plenty of Manchester City this season… and the season before… and the season before that… and the season before that. Whether City finishes off an unprecedented four-peat depends on what it does starting this week. It has three games in eight days—with the first of those this week.
Manchester City is in a hurry to claim Premier League history. And we’re in a hurry to bring you three soccer matches that offer value and opportunity for bettors.
These Are Dull Blades
Already relegated, Sheffield United clearly failed its 2023-24 Premier League season test. But there’s one test the Blades scored 100 on this season:
The number of goals conceded.
Sheffield United has coughed up/spit up/let in/yielded/conceded 100 goals this season. You’re entitled to use all the verbs you want here, because this dubious feat tied Swindon Town’s 30-year-old Premier League record for most goals conceded—and we have two more games remaining.
Need more proof how dull the Blades are defensively? Their 51 conceded goals at home is a Premier League record. Oh, but why stop here? The 100 goals-conceded is 22 more than the next-worse defensive team—fellow relegation zone occupant Luton Town (who we’ll get to in a bit).
In the 2024 calendar year, Sheffield United has played 16 league matches. There’s been at least four goals scored in 14 of them.
Which brings us to this offensive-orgy-in-waiting. The Blades were officially relegated last week. Their opponent, Everton, clinched safety a couple weeks ago. That translates into two teams with zero you-know-whats to give here in terms of playing conservatively. There’s zero chance Sheffield United suddenly remembers how to play defense—equaling their GPA in terms of Premier League survival.
Best Bet: Over-3 (-114)
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Does Luton Town Have One More Miracle?
Speaking of Luton Town and Premier League survival, we find the Hatters on the edge of relegation. They enter the penultimate weekend three points behind 17th-place Nottingham Forest and trailing the Foresters by 11 in goal differential. Throw it all in the hopper and Luton Town needs a victory here to avoid joining Sheffield United in the lower Championship League next season.
The Hatters, their sardine can of a stadium and plucky, bring-it attitude in terms of playing style, have become everyone’s second-favorite team. They opened the season -330 to be relegated and are doing everything they can to make bettors eat that wager. But Luton Town has earned points in only six of 18 away games this season, so asking them to scratch out a result here is a big ask.
Or is it? West Ham is comfortably, if crankily, ensconced in ninth place. But the Hammers have clearly licked a stamp and mailed in the season, emphasizing that point by getting waxed, 5-0, by Chelsea last time out. Sporting the worst goal differential of any top-10 team (minus-14), West Ham dropped three of its last five on the run-in, playing like a team trying to get their manager, David Moyes, sacked.
It worked. Moyes and the team announced he won’t be back next season. And it’s not like his final home game will bring a “win-one-for-the-Gipper” resurgence. West Ham’s one-time fortress is anything but; the Hammers have won only six home games this season. Their 6-8-4 record translates into a team that has won only a third of its home games.
We’ll throw one team’s desperation and one team’s apathy in the hopper and put our faith in Luton Town to at least keep this close.
Best Bet: Luton Town +0.5 goals (+106)
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Remove All Doubt Early
The path to Manchester City’s unprecedented fourth consecutive Premier League title is simple: Run the table in its last three games. And that path starts here, at Fulham.
The middle leg of that trio of games takes Manchester City to Tottenham Spurs on Tuesday. That’s the pivotal game of the trifecta. The back end is Sunday against the aforementioned, playing-out-the-string West Ham.
What does this mean? It means Manchester City wants to put Fulham away early, so it can rest stars such as striker Erling Haaland and midfield maestros Kevin DeBrunye and Phil Foden before turning them loose against Spurs three days later.
You could look at the Over-1.5 goals in the first half, which makes a 1-1 draw a winner. But City has shown patience in its games, exhibiting a penchant for low-scoring first halves before running teams off the pitch in the second.
We’ll dial that back a bit here, stay with City’s first-half desire to put this one to bed early and understand a 1-0 lead gets us a push, not a loss.
Best Bet: Manchester City First Half -1 (+144)
