When it comes to futures betting on Major League Baseball, there are few bets that engender more debate than the season win totals. Sure, you can bet on who is going to win the World Series, who will win the divisions or the leagues, or who will win the individual awards. Those are fun bets, but your favorite team can be out of it early. You can see they have no chance to win the championships of any division or league. Sometimes your awards player gets injured, and even if it’s just for a few weeks, they’re almost immediately out of the running.
But when it comes to win totals, that bet usually stays alive until mid-summer. Even if a team gets off to an awful start, they can sometimes get very hot when the summer heats up and put themselves back in the running to top that win total. Conversely, often the “hot” teams in the beginning of the season fall off dramatically when players go down, injuries mount, or simply they begin to play to their level.
For the 2024 season, there are plenty of story lines that will affect your totals bets. The world champion Texas Rangers are barely in the conversation for a repeat title and their win total is hardly championship caliber. The Los Angeles Dodgers have built a super team with their off-season signings and acquisitions. And in the AL East, will the Baltimore Orioles continue their upward climb or will the New York Yankees return to prominence?
Here are our picks for the Over/Under season win totals in MLB.
So let’s start with the Dodgers. Last season, the Dodgers won 100 games—without Shohei Otani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the highly touted Japanese pitcher who has yet to throw his first major league pitch. And when you add the lineup that crushed it last year, a prediction of 103.5 seems to be a bit understated. Especially when you consider that the Dodgers won 106 games two years ago without Freddie Freeman. So taking the Over of 103.5 at BetMGM seems like a no-brainer.
And let’s move to the Texas Rangers. Yes, they’re in the division with the powerful Houston Astros and the possibly resurgent Seattle Mariners, but for the defending champions, 88.5 seems a little low. Remember, Jacob DeGrom, their chief signing in 2023, never pitched last year. Yes, he’s fragile, but if Bruce Bochy can nurse him through a full season, he’s far better than the loss of Jordan Montgomery, who still may sign with the Rangers again. And when you can get over 88 at Caesars Sportsbook, that’s a steal.
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Now let’s look at the bottom of the barrel. The Oakland A’s (not so soon to be the Las Vegas A’s) are definitely down there. Most books don’t even give them a puncher’s chance. They will certainly lose 100 games. The only question is how many will they win? Most books have the win total at 57.5. But most books also have the over at -110. BetRivers has the over at +100. Jump on that!
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And how about the Tampa Bay Rays? They took a beating this off season, losing Tyler Glasnow and now replacing him with anyone of even half his caliber. But the Rays always seem to manage to contend. Last year they won 99 games and took a wild card in the post season. But this year, their win total is projected to be only 84.5 at most books. That’s a rather precipitous drop, so the Rays Over that number looks good at Caesars Sportsbook.
The New York Yankees are projected to have the third-highest win total in baseball at either 94.5 or 93.5. That one win could spell profits for any bettor. With Juan Soto joining Aaron Judge in the Bombers outfield that might be a low number. And with an improved pitching staff, a bet on the Over at 93.5 at BetMGM makes a lot of sense.
