The NFL Playoffs start next weekend but it’s not too early to be thinking about getting down some Super Bowl future wagers.
The Philadelphia Eagles were the clear team of November, as the Eagles scored wins over the Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, and Buffalo Bills. They rose to the top of the table and were +400 at BetMGM on December 1.
But the San Francisco 49ers abruptly ended the party in Week 13, dumping the Eagles in Philly 42-19 and laying claim to favorite status in the warming Super Bowl odds market. It’s been several weeks since any team has had the separation at the top that the 49ers currently do.
Odds to Win Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers +210
Baltimore Ravens +350
Buffalo Bills +750
Dallas Cowboys +800
Kansas City Chiefs +900
Philadelphia Eagles +1100
Miami Dolphins +1300
Detroit Lions +2000
Cleveland Browns +3000
Houston Texans +3000
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Even after the Baltimore Ravens’ Week 16 victory over San Francisco, the Niners remain a clear betting favorite in BetMGM’s Super Bowl odds market. That says a lot about San Francisco’s staying power.
At BetMGM, the 49ers now account for 17.7% of the overall Super Bowl odds handle, as of January 2. That is far more than any other team. Buffalo is second with 10.2%.
Preseason Contenders in Trouble
Back in the offseason, the NFL consensus was clear. The AFC was a vastly superior conference, and the Chiefs, Bengals, and Bills were all top favorites to compete for the Super Bowl.
Yeah … about that.
The Bills are fighting an uphill playoff battle with several key defensive injuries and even more turnovers.
The Cincinnati Bengals lost quarterback Joe Burrow for the year.
The Kansas City Chiefs have no reliable wide receivers and have fallen behind Baltimore and the Miami Dolphins in the standings.
Bettors are reeling from three different seasons that have ranged anywhere from underwhelming to disastrous.
There’s also the New York Jets, who were a preseason darling that attracted thousands of bets until Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles in the opening moments of the season. They were officially eliminated from playoff contention in Week 15. The Bengals followed soon after.
Ravens Control AFC Despite Tough Division
As of January 2, here’s what the AFC Championship market looks like at BetMGM:
Kansas City Chiefs: 12% of bets and 10.8% of market handle
Cincinnati Bengals: 11.7% of bets and 9.6% of market handle
New York Jets: 8.1% of bets and 7.4% of market handle
Buffalo Bills: 10.9% of bets and 22.1% of market handle
The beneficiaries are teams like Miami and Baltimore, which have surged up the Super Bowl odds table.
It’s common in sports to watch good teams capitalize on easy schedules and secure strong playoff positioning. This is a trend we’ve seen repeatedly in sports with unbalanced schedules, like the NFL or college football.
That’s not the case for the Baltimore Ravens, who have inside positioning for the AFC in both the standings and the Super Bowl odds table.
Baltimore – now down to +140 to win the AFC after its Week 17 thrashing of Miami – has thrived in spite of playing in the rugged AFC North, where all four teams played most of the season in contention for playoff berths.
After the Week 17 results, Cleveland is the No. 5 seed, and Pittsburgh is still in the hunt for a Wild Card bid.
Cincinnati (8-8) is 0-5 against divisional opponents but 8-3 against all other teams.
Bettors have only just begun to take notice of Baltimore, with only 6.1% of all Super Bowl tickets (and just 10% of all AFC Champion tickets) backing the Ravens.
Dallas Cowboys Odds to Win Super Bowl
The Cowboys are currently +800 to win the Super Bowl this season, and there may not be a more frustrating, perplexing team to handicap.
Let’s start with the good. Dallas is absolutely elite at certain aspects of the game that traditionally correlate to success in the playoffs. Even with Cowboys corner Trevon Diggs lost for the year, the defense remains very good. Micah Parsons is a DPOY-caliber player. PFF ranks Dallas fifth in defense, which includes a No. 2 pass rush and a No. 2 tackling grade.
There’s also the Brandon Aubrey kicking edge, which could be incredibly valuable in the playoffs.
