Prop bets are notoriously tough to beat. But if you’re looking for one smart addition to your bet slip, here’s a Super Bowl Prop Bet to get your arms around.
Meet the Octopus.
The Octopus happens when a player scores both a touchdown and then hits the two-point conversion (eight points, get it?). It happened exactly once in a Super Bowl. Three years ago, when the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts crashed in from the two-yard line to bring Philadelphia within two of the Chiefs at 35-33. With 5:15 left, going for two was a given, and Hurts finished the Octopus by running in the two-point conversion.
Betting whether there will be a second Super Bowl Octopus gets you +1,600 at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. A “No” comes in at -6,000, meaning you’d have to put up $6,000 to win $100.
The Octopus is one of the more novel Super Bowl prop bets in what is literally an encyclopedia of prop bets on America’s most-watched television spectacle, never mind sporting event. There are literally thousands of ways to bet the game that go beyond the usual Three True Betting Options: spread, total, and moneyline.
As always, we are obligated to mention one of our favorite quirky Super Bowl prop bets: the length of the National Anthem. Last year, Jon Batiste clocked a 119-second Anthem, and BetMGM has the Over-Under at 119.5 seconds, a half-tick under two minutes.
By frame of reference, eight of the last 13 Anthems have cracked two minutes, led by Alicia Keys’ record-setting 156-second (2:36) rendition in Super Bowl XLVII 13 years ago. This year’s singer, Charlie Puth, cryptically said he’d bring “a really special arrangement,” which could mean anything from replicating a 1940s crooner to blasting it out like a jazz improviser.
Those are just two of the ways you can bring action to a game that sometimes is devoid of action. Here are three more of our favorite prop bets to hold your attention between trips to the guacamole bowl.
An Old, Short Standby
How would you like to bet a prop that has cashed in more than 60 percent of the Super Bowl games played? If there is a prop bet to pile on, it’s the one that often creates a pile. That would be the shortest touchdown yardage. It’s Under-1.5 yards. And it’s not hard to see why.
Someone has crashed in from the 1-yard line in five of the last six and eight of the last 10 Super Bowls. Only Super Bowl LXVIII two years ago and that abominable 10-3 Patriots-over-Rams trench warfare game in 2019 failed to cash.
And there’s no recency bias either. Betting this in 24 of the last 35 Super Bowls (68.5 percent) and 37 of the 59 played (62.7 percent) sent you to the window.
At a value-screaming -145, this bet practically forces you to make it.
Best Bet: Shortest TD scored Under-1.5 yards (-145) at BetMGM
We’re Going For It—NOT
Yes, we live in an era of gambling—both on- and off-the-field. And on the field, it’s now almost routine to see NFL teams going for it on fourth down, even in an often-risk-averse league.
Except when you’re Seattle Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald. The Seahawks have attempted and converted the fewest number of fourth-down plays this season. In their 19 games, they are 7-for-12 (58 percent) in fourth-down conversions. That’s the fewest attempts and conversions in the league by a considerable margin. The only teams remotely in the neighborhood for attempts were the Houston Texans (19) and the Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals (20 each).
Again, it’s not hard to figure out why once you burrow into the numbers. Seattle gave up the fewest points this year (292). Along with Houston (295), the Seahawks were the only team to surrender fewer than 300 points this season.
Macdonald’s game plan all season, with his top-ranked defense, was to force opposing teams to drive the length of the field. The more plays it takes, the greater the opportunity for a mistake or a turnover. With New England Patriots’ second-year QB Drake Maye at the controls, expect this to continue. Especially since Maye has had an inconsistent postseason, and the Seahawks are favored.
Westgate SuperBook Vice President of Race and Sports John Murray told The Athletic that many of his sharp bettors were all over this bet. At plus-money, so are we.
Best Bet: Seattle to convert a 4th Down–NO (+125) at BetMGM
Romping with Rhamondre
Given the musical backfield symphony Patriots’ coach Mike Vrabel has conducted this season, you often don’t know who’s going to be the primary soloist. Will it be veteran Rhamondre Stevenson or hotshot rookie TreVeyon Henderson?
Given what we saw in the AFC Championship Game, expect Stevenson to carry the tune in the Patriots’ backfield. He played 94 percent of New England’s offensive snaps in that AFC title game against Denver. Stevenson had 25 carries and two targets along the way. While he has yet to score a touchdown in the playoffs, he has 58 touches and the Patriots’ only goal-line carry in the postseason.
Yes, the Seahawks are ballhawks in the red zone. As we noted above, they have surrendered the fewest points in the NFL. They’ve allowed only nine rushing TDs this season. Total.
But running backs can run on them. Witness the Rams’ Kyren Williams finding paydirt last week, and witness the 124.4 yards they’ve allowed runners in the last seven games. And running backs can get targets; witness the league-high 127 running back targets during the regular season.
We’re betting that Stevenson exploits all of these trends and conducts his way into the end zone. If you want to take on more risk, bet him to score the game’s first TD at +1,000.
Best Bet: Rhamondre Stevenson to score an anytime TD (+135) at BetMGM
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