The Seattle Seahawks (14-3) opened Super Bowl 60 as the betting favorite against the New England Patriots (14-3). Seattle is currently -4.5, and the points total is 45.5. The game will be hosted at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA.
The Seahawks are the superior team across the board, but if the Patriots steal a win, it will rank among the biggest upsets in the last 25 years.
Seattle edged out the Los Angeles Rams to win the NFC Championship. The NFC was the stronger conference this season. Everyone felt that no matter who won that Rams/Seahawks game would emerge as the Super Bowl favorite.
The Patriots beat the Denver Broncos to capture the AFC Championship in a low-scoring thriller. Blizzard-like conditions in Colorado crippled both offenses in the fourth quarter. The Patriots escaped with a 10–7 victory and punched their ticket to the Super Bowl. It’s no surprise they’re the underdog at BetMGM at +4.5 or +190 on the moneyline.
Rematch of Super Bowl 49
Let’s flash back to 2015 and Super Bowl 49 hosted in Glendale, Arizona. The Seahawks, led by their feared “Legion of Boom” defense, were the defending champions and seeking back-to-back Super Bowl wins. They opened as a -1.5 favorite, but most of the money backed the Patriots. The line moved to a pick’em in some sportsbooks by kickoff.
The Patriots won their first Super Bowl in a decade and spoiled the Seahawks’ attempt at consecutive championships on a controversial play that still haunts football fans in the Pacific Northwest.
The Seahawks were down four points late in the game but poised for a comeback victory when they marched the ball down to the one-yard line. Instead of rushing play, they used Marshawn Lynch as a decoy at the goal line and opted for a passing play. Malcolm Butler jumped the slant route and intercepted Russell Wilson to seal the victory, 28-24, for the Patriots. It took 11 years for the Seahawks to return to the Super Bowl and potentially exorcise those demons.
Patriots: Easy Street, Nothing to Lose?
Record: 14-3
Preseason Win Total: 8.5 Over/Under
Current SB Odds: +190
Preseason SB Odds: +6500
Betting Record: 13-6-1 ATS
The Patriots faced the NFL’s easiest schedule during the regular season, including 11 games against teams that fired their head coach. Two of those other six games were against the lowly New York Jets (3-14).
New England went 4-13 the previous season under rookie head coach Jerod Mayo, who was out of his depth and thrust into an impossible situation to replace Bill Belichick. The Patriots wisely jettisoned Mayo and hired Mike Vrabel, who turned the team around in only one season.
Quarterback Drake Maye is in consideration for the MVP, which is impressive considering the lack of offensive stars compared to MVP favorite Matthew Stafford and his vast arsenal of weapons on the Rams.
The Pats secured the #2 seed in the AFC and went 3-0 in the playoffs to reach the Super Bowl. There was no clear-cut favorite in the AFC playoffs, but the Patriots seized the opportunity.
The Patriots took advantage of a banged-up Justin Herbert and a nonexistent offensive line, yet only beat the Los Angeles Chargers, 16-3, in the AFC Wild Card.
New England defeated the Houston Texans, 28-16, in the AFC Divisional Round against the toughest defense they had faced up to that point. C.J. Stroud turned in one of the worst playoff performances in recent memory, and the turnover-heavy Texans gifted the Patriots a victory. They then caught an enormous break in the AFC Championship after Bo Nix broke his ankle late in Denver’s previous game. The Patriots secured a narrow victory against backup QB Jarrett Stidham, who hadn’t started since 2023.
The Patriots may be the weakest team to reach the Super Bowl since the 2003 Carolina Panthers, yet they sit a mere one win away from a seventh championship. New England is tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers at six Super Bowl titles, and a victory would push them into sole possession of first place. It would also mark the franchise’s first championship outside of the Belichick/Brady dynasty.
Meanwhile, Vrabel is also on the cusp of history. He won three titles as a linebacker for the Patriots. And now he has a chance to become the first head coach in history to win a Super Bowl as a player and coach for the same franchise.
The Patriots went 13-6-1 against the spread, including the playoffs. They’re 2-1 ATS in the postseason and failed to cover the -3.5 spread against the Broncos in the AFC Championship. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games
The majority of the early money backed the Seahawks, aside from diehard fans in the greater New England area. Most experts picked the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl because the Patriots are outmatched on both offense and defense. If all the pressure is on the Seahawks, then the Patriots have nothing to lose. They might as well stay loose and have fun, right?
Seahawks: Darnold the Comeback Kid, Underrated Macdonald
Record: 14-3
Preseason Win Total: 8.5 over/under
Current SB Odds: -225
Preseason SB Odds: +6500
Betting Record: 14-5 ATS
In his second season as an NFL head coach, Mike Macdonald has a shot at winning the Super Bowl. While the media has fixated on New England’s bright future under Vrabel and Drake Maye, Macdonald’s steady leadership has flown under the radar in Seattle. He stepped into massive shoes, replacing Pete Carroll, who guided the Seahawks to back-to-back Super Bowl appearances and their lone title in Super Bowl 48.
A former defensive coordinator, Macdonald has earned praise as both an innovator and motivator. It’s no coincidence the Seahawks now boast the NFL’s top defense for the first time since the Legion of Boom era. Ranked #1 in defensive DVOA, the Seahawks led the league in scoring defense with only 17.2 ppg. Their elite defense allowed only 16.5 ppg in two playoff victories.
In his rookie campaign last season, Macdonald led the Seahawks to a 10-7 record, but they bubbled the playoffs. Oddsmakers lacked faith in the Seahawks entering this season when they replaced quarterback Geno Smith with Sam Darnold. That skepticism reflected in a preseason win total of 8.5 Over/Under, and they were +6500 odds to win the Super Bowl.
So-called experts anticipated the Seahawks would decline in Macdonald’s second season. Macdonald made them look bad when he led the Seahawks to 14 wins and the #1 seed in the NFC. He’s now one win away from hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
Once dismissed as a draft bust, Darnold now has a chance at redemption. The Jets selected him third overall in 2018 before moving on in favor of Zach Wilson. After rocky stops with the Jets and Carolina Panthers, Darnold rebuilt his game as a backup in San Francisco under offensive guru Kyle Shanahan. He revived his career in Minnesota last season, going 14-3 under Kevin O’Connell.
The Vikings did not re-sign Darnold in the offseason because they felt he wilted in big games. He played poorly in the postseason, so the Vikings let Darnold walk in free agency.
The Seahawks inked Darnold to a three-year deal, but they put him in the best chance to succeed by pairing him with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. The gamble paid off. The Seahawks posted the third-best scoring offense in the NFL this season with 28.4 ppg. They averaged 36.0 ppg in the postseason.
Despite an oblique injury, Darnold took a huge leap forward with a clutch win against the Rams in the NFC Championship. A victory in the Super Bowl will get Darnold off the schneid for good.
The Seahawks are 14-5 this season against the spread, including the playoffs. They went 2-0 ATS in the postseason against difficult foes like the 49ers and Rams. The Seahawks went 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games since mid-October, and they covered four games in a row.
Pauly’s Pick: Seattle -4.5, Under 45.5
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