The lynchpin for any NFL team is the quarterback. Same is true for your fantasy football team no matter what scoring system you use. So the top picks are easy. If you have one of the first four picks, these should be your picks. But what happens if your starting QB gets injured and what happens when he’s on his bye week. That’s the crux of the matter. So let’s begin.
The top four QBs that will be gone in the first four picks are: Josh Allen (BUF), Jalen Hurts (PHI), Patrick Mahomes II (KC) and Lamar Jackson (BAL). These are the no-brainer picks but like all QBs, there’s always the injury risk. Most of these are quite durable so the risk is real but minimal.
ONE STEP DOWN
The second tier is interesting and some of them could be true breakouts like C.J. Stroud was last year. Stroud leads this group followed by Anthony Richardson (IND), Joe Burrow (CIN), Kyler Murray (ARI) and Dak Prescott (DAL). But here’s where that risk comes into play. Richardson and Burrow were injured most of last season and Murray for much of it. So take that into account.
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The third tier is even more risky since none of them have had true breakout seasons but the potential is still there. Jordan Love (GB), Brock Purdy (SF), Jayden Daniels (WAS), Tua Tagovailoa (MIA), Jared Goff (DET), Caleb Williams (CHI), Trevor Lawrence (JAC), and Justin Herbert (LAC). Rookies Williams and Daniels were the top two picks in the NFL draft this year, but rookies aren’t usually great fantasy performers. Goff and Herbert have shown to be very effective and durable QBs but haven’t quite gotten their teams over the hump. Purdy and Love are leading talented teams but have only been part of the machine so far. But we know that these players are capable of having a big year and most of them will be gone within the first two rounds.
QUALITY BACKUPS
The tiers below these groups are really questionable either due to the team situation, the QB battles or any of a dozen other reasons. Any of these could be good, but it’s unclear which ones. But most fantasy owners will have to decide on one of these QBs and either the backup or a third-string QB depending upon how deep your league is. So here’s the pros and cons.
Kirk Cousins great fantasy stats for his career. But 36 years old and coming of an injury.
Matthew Stafford (LAR) Also 36, but in the twilight of his career. Still a starter, however.
Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) Great fantasy stats, but coming off serious injury. Does he have enough left?
Deshaun Watson (CLE) Injuries, injuries, injuries. Attitude, attitude, attitude.
Geno Smith (SEA) Great in ’22, average in ’23. And Sam Howell on his heels.
Baker Mayfield (TB) Breakout in ’23, but new offensive coordinator.
Will Levis (TEN) Erratic last year, but good field of wide receivers should help.
Derek Carr (NO) Serviceable but ordinary fantasy numbers and a low ceiling.
Daniel Jones (NYG) Another year, more questions than answers along with the injury bug.
Bryce Young (CAR) New relatable offense so maybe he’ll erase first-year jitters.
Russell Wilson (PIT). Russell or Justin Fields. Battle goes on, delay your choice.
Bo Nix (DEN) Probably won’t start right away, but could emerge as the best in the draft.
J.J. McCarthy (MIN) How long before Sam Darnold passes the torch?
Drake Maye (NE) And how long before Jacoby Brissett hands it off?
Gardner Minshew II (LV) Is Aidan O’Connell looking over his shoulder?
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While some of the above are backup QBs already, what other strictly backups are realistically ready to step in?
Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) Kirk Cousins is old and injured. Will Penix be ready?
Tyrod Taylor (NYJ) Can Aaron Rodgers last longer than four plays in 2024?
Jimmy Garoppolo (LAR) Disappointment in Vegas but ready in LA when Stafford is down?
Trey Lance (DAL) Last year for Prescott; Cowboy QB of the future.
Mike White (MIA) Tua’s injuries mean White must be ready.
Lots of interesting possibilities so let’s be ready for a busy season of fantasy football.
