Just a week ago, there were 64 teams hoping to make it to the big dance at State Farm Stadium in Arizona. Today, that field has been whittled down to just 16, the infamous Sweet 16 where dreams go to die.
So out of those 16 colleges, what teams will make it to the Final Four? Let’s examine the teams that are remaining and their odds to win it all, courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Odds to Win the NCAA Tournament
| UConn | +210 |
| Houston | +500 |
| Purdue | +600 |
| Arizona | +800 |
| North Carolina | +1300 |
| Tennessee | +1400 |
| Marquette | +1600 |
| Iowa State | +2000 |
| Duke | +2500 |
| Gonzaga | +2500 |
| Creighton | +2500 |
| Illinois | +3500 |
| Alabama | +3500 |
| San Diego State | +7000 |
| North Carolina State | +7000 |
| Clemson | +8000 |
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There haven’t been a lot of upsets in this year’s tournament. The only upset in the round of 32 was the sixth-seeded Clemson knocking off the third seed Baylor, a very mild upset. All of the top seeds have made the Sweet 16, so it might be wise to lean on those four teams—Houston, Purdue, UConn and North Carolina—as the favorites to at least make the Final Four. Let’s see how they stack up in the first round of the Sweet 16.
Teams to Watch
Let’s take a look at the matchups as we move forward. On Thursday, North Carolina is playing a four seed, Alabama, in Los Angeles. Oddsmakers tell us that they’re not that confident in North Carolina, since they’re only the fifth choice behind a second seed Arizona. And Alabama is a potent offensive machine, averaging the most points per game—91.1—of any of the Sweet 16 teams, and they’re getting four points.
Duke is almost omnipresent in the Sweet 16 even though this is the second year that Mike Krzyzewski isn’t the coach since 1980. But Jon Scheyer isn’t too shabby. Duke is four point underdogs to the Houston Cougars, who barely survived in the round of 32 after being forced to overtime by Texas A&M.
In Boston, you know UConn is going to pack the rafters at the TD Garden against San Diego State. The Huskies are trying to become the first team in more than 20 years to repeat as national champions, and only the Aztecs stand in the way. But the Mountain West took huge strides this year, landing six teams in the tournament, and San Diego State is the elite of that conference. They’re getting six points and have a great defense, so keep that in mind.
Purdue also has almost home court advantage when it goes up against Gonzaga in Detroit. Purdue is trying to bounce back from last year’s biggest upset, losing as the top seed to number 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson. The Boilermakers are the top remaining team in sinking treys, at a rate of over 40 percent. Gonzaga, however, has been here before. It’s the ninth straight year the Bulldogs have made the Sweet 16, and with Gonzaga getting five points, they might be able to pull the upset.
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Best Value Bet to Win 2024 NCAA Tournament
Obviously, this is an 80/1 longshot, but Clemson may be the best pure value on the board right now when it comes to winning the NCAA Tournament. UConn and Houston are huge favorites, and as such, there really isn’t a ton of value on their odds anymore as we have narrowed down to the Sweet 16. When the brackets were first released this season, it seemed that the West region was much more wide open than the other regions.
North Carolina is the worst No. 1 seed in the tourney, as they are even ranked below the No. 2 seed Arizona. Even still, we’re not entirely convinced about the Wildcats either. They allowed Long Beach State to give them a serious challenge for most of the game before pulling away in the Round of 64, while Dayton also played them close in the Round of 32.
Clemson is a much better team than either of those opponents. They have already beaten No. 11 New Mexico and No. 3 Baylor, and were underdogs to both of those teams. The combination of PJ Hall and Ian Schieffelin has been unstoppable in the paint, while guard Chase Hunter is starting to make his name known in March.
When picking a team based on value, you always have to look at their path to winning your bet. The West region gives me the most hope for any sleeper or underdog, so Clemson seems like a great choice at this 85/1 figure.
Can’t get enough March Madness predictions? Check out March Madness Futures: UConn, Houston Favorites in Sweet 16 by Pauly McGuire.
