It’s the “official” opening week of the college football season, which means one eternal truth follows every fan, observer and student of the game.
Hype springs eternal.
And the hype machine goes full throttle this weekend with a slate of appointment-viewing games that promise to raise the blood pressure of fans across the country. New quarterbacks, new teams, new promise—and yes, new hype springing eternal.
With the hype of Texas-Ohio State, LSU-Clemson, and other lesser—but still intense—games ushering in the 2025 college football season for keeps, the Gridiron Guru returns to reveal the value-meets-opportunity wagering opportunities amid the hype.
The Manningcast Hits Columbus
Nowhere does the hype dial hit 11 quicker than this marquee opener between two of the bluest bloods in college football—one of which happens to be the defending national champion. The other? One of the teams Ohio State beat en route to that title.
That team—Texas—happens to be the No. 1-ranked team coming into the season. The Buckeyes? They’re ranked No. 3. So you see where all of Saturday’s oxygen is going.
The dial has already hit 11 on Texas QB Arch Manning, he of the two Super Bowl-winning uncles in Peyton and Eli, and Hall-of-Fame grandfather in Archie. After understudying for Quinn Ewers the last two seasons, Arch makes his debut as a full-time starter in the crucible that is The Horseshoe. And he does so carrying the lowest odds to win the Heisman Trophy–+600 at BetMGM.
He also does so, missing four starters on the Longhorns’ offensive line. This is a trend between both of these teams. Texas and Ohio State had a combined 26 players drafted by NFL teams this spring. So while Texas lost four offensive linemen, the Buckeyes lost their entire defensive front—half of the eight starters they must replace.
Ohio State also replaces QB Will Howard with 5-star talent Julian Sayin, who comes with his own hype machine. The 2023 Gatorade National Player of the Year at Carlsbad High in California, Sayin originally started at Alabama, but transferred after Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban retired.
Sayin inherited a stellar receiver room, starting with incandescent sophomore Jeremiah Smith (76-1,315-15 in 2024) and fortified with Carnell Tate and Brandon Inniss. As good as Smith was last year, Texas held him to one catch for three yards in their CFP semifinal.
That is the key here: who will embrace the moment? Texas is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS as an underdog under head coach Steve Sarkisian. And as good as the Longhorns have been under Sark, they are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games. Ohio State is 5-1 ATS in its last six and 7-3 in its last 10, which included running the table in the CFP. Be it ever so less than humble, there’s no place like home.
Best Bet: Ohio State -2.5 (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Which Tiger Are We Holding Here?
Turn off the Arch Manning Hypeapalooza for the moment and turn your attention to two more accomplished Heisman candidates: LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik. Nussmeier followed 2023 Heisman Trophy-winning QB Jayden Daniels to a 4,052-yard, 29-TD season in 2024. Klubnik, meanwhile, finally rounded into the 5-star form he displayed in high school, throwing for 3,639 yards and 36 TDs to only eight interceptions.
While you’re watching those two put on early NFL audition tapes, you’re also seeing two top-10 teams (Clemson is ranked 4th; LSU is 9th) who expect much more in 2025. Last year, LSU went 9-4; Clemson 10-4, which included a trip to the inaugural College Football Playoff and a first-round loss to Texas.
You’re also seeing two teams that struggled against ranked opponents last year. Both went 1-3 against marquee teams, and Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC. And neither of these two handled the spread very well last year. Clemson has covered the spread only three times in its last 10 games and went 1-6 ATS against SEC teams. LSU, meanwhile, was 2-4 ATS in its last six and 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games.
This one could come down to a field goal. But even with the spread north of the key number of 3, we like the Tigers at home against an LSU team that hasn’t won a season opener since 2019—when Joe Burrow was LSU’s QB. Clemson’s secondary is one of the best in the country, and Death Valley is one of the best home-field advantages in college football.
Best Bet: Clemson -3.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Don’t Get Buffaloed by the Hype
It’s no secret the Gridiron Guru has profitably shorted Early Season Colorado the last two seasons, because when it came to over-the-moon hype, everyone yielded to Coach Prime and the Buffaloes.
When it came to under-the-radar teams you should have been paying attention to, few outside of Greater Atlanta were paying attention to Georgia Tech. Which was regrettable, considering the Yellow Jackets morphed into one of those troublesome teams nobody wanted a piece of come late December.
Put aside a 35-27 Birmingham Bowl loss to Vanderbilt. Georgia Tech’s 7-6 record last year included an eight-overtime loss to Georgia, a 28-23 victory over a fourth-ranked Miami team, and a season-opening 24-21 victory over Florida State that turned out to be a lot less impressive as the season progressed.
Still, the Yellow Jackets have sting to them, starting with prime stinger QB Haynes King. You probably didn’t know King led the ACC in completion percentage (72.9 percent), while throwing for 14 TDs and adding 587 and 11 TDs on the ground. Just like you didn’t know RB Jamal Haynes ran for 1,000 yards last year.
You did know Colorado lost QB Shedeur Sanders, along with Heisman-winning WR-CB Travis Hunter. He’s one of Sanders’ top four targets who must be replaced, along with four offensive linemen.
But wait. There’s more. On defense, Colorado misses its best pass rusher, both linebackers, both safeties, and the aforementioned Hunter.
That’s a lot of prime talent Coach Prime must replace from a team that was 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games. This puts us in a prime position to once again short the Buffs.
Best Bet: Georgia Tech -4.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
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