The Purdue Boilermakers last went to the college basketball national championship in 1969 and didn’t win it. But the Boilermakers have a chance to claim their first title this year, although the task is monumental. But there is something working for them when they face the UConn Huskies.
History is working against the Boilermakers in this matchup, as UConn has been downright dominant the last two NCAA Tournaments. The Huskies are 11-0 SU and ATS, with their closest margin of victory coming by 13 points. UConn is the first team to ever win and cover 11 straight NCAA Tournament games in the seeding era, and is 27-9 ATS in the tournament since 2009. Its success is not just tied to March Madness, as UConn is 11-1 ATS during its current 12-game winning streak, and has won 32 of 33 games (while covering 28 of those) against non-conference opponents over the last two seasons.
UConn has not lost a real road game all season, and its two conference losses against Seton Hall and Creighton came when Donovan Clingan was limited to just 14 minutes after suffering an injury against the Seton Hall Pirates—who won the NIT tournament—and the Creighton Bluejays not only to pull off the victory, but to even stay close in this matchup, and UConn simply has another gear that Purdue does not have. Nine of Purdue’s final 11 conference wins were by single digits, and we trust UConn’s big game experience, as it returned 42.5 percent of the minutes from last year’s national championship squad.
The big stat working against Purdue? UConn has not lost in five appearances in the championship game dating back to only 1999—but it’s been 30 years since Purdue has even played the final game. So UConn is the clear bet to win, even at -300 and a spread of 6.5 points.
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What About Some Props?
The Over-Under is 146 at BetMGM. When you consider that the Over 158 scored in the Alabama semifinal for UConn, that might be a gimme. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Alabama was one of the highest scoring offenses in the NCAA this year, so UConn, matched them basket for basket and more.
It’s unlikely the slower Purdue can match that, so the Under 146 is a good bet.
Stephon Castle Over 11.5 Points
Stephon Castle just scored 21 points against Alabama in 30 minutes. He went 7-for-13 from the field and dropped five of his six foul shots to put together an incredible performance to help UConn make it into the Finals.
Castle will be the youngest player on either team. But he’s also one of the most skilled players despite his age.
Castle has averaged 12 points per game in the NCAA Tournament so far this year and 11 points per game throughout the season. But he’s got plenty of confidence and just had a big day on the same stage. He’s got to be feeling good. When everyone is paying attention to the center matchup between Donovan Clingan and Zach Edey, the guard play for both teams should be electric.
After all, Purdue is great on the glass. They’re not nearly as good defending inside the arc as UConn. Let’s take Castle to get Over his points total.
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Cam Spencer Over 3.5 Assists
The goal is for Cam Spencer to find Castle for some easy buckets. Spencer has earned 3.7 assists per game this season. In the NCAA Tournament, it’s been more of the same. He’s added 3.8 assists per game.
However, what stands out are his last two games. Spencer has tallied nine assists in the previous two games and has added at least four assists in three of the five NCAA Tournament games.
Ultimately, this game should have plenty of assists on both sides. UConn is fifth in the nation in A/FGM, while Purdue is second in the nation. That said, there’s probably nobody smarter than Cam Spencer on the court.
Although Zach Edey is a big dude who plays dominant defense, the Boilermakers have still watched teams shoot 47.4% from the field inside the arc, which is only 53rd in the country. Now, compare that to UConn’s 59.1% rate from the inside.
The Huskies should have no problem scoring against Purdue. Spencer will make sure of that. Grab his Over.
Braden Smith Over 5.5 Rebounds
As stated above, Purdue is fantastic on the glass. More so than UConn.
The Boilermakers have earned 37.8 percent of offensive rebounds, which is 6th in the nation. They’ve also held teams to 23.9 percent of offensive rebounds, which is 13th best in the nation.
Most of that can be attributed to Zach Edey, who has added 12.2 rebounds per game. But Braden Smith is also extremely good at feeling the box score.
The 6-foot guard has added 12 points, 7.5 assists, and 5.9 rebounds per game this season. He’s been even better in the NCAA Tournament, with 8.8 assists and 6.4 rebounds per game.
He shot the ball poorly against NC State and scored just three points. He also had five turnovers. Look for him to get his act together for the NCAA Championship game. He’s a ball hawk and makes everyone better, just like Cam Spencer. So that’ll be an entertaining matchup. Overall, Smith is great at crashing the glass and always finds a way. He’s earned at least seven rebounds in three straight games.
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