Although the exact dates aren’t set in stone, the NHL has released its Qualifying Round matchups. The best-of-five series will determine who will move into the Stanley Cup Playoffs and should be quite an exhilarating way to resume the 2019-2020 campaign.
The Toronto Maple Leafs (36-25-9, 81 points) are -175 favorites to win their Qualifying Round series against the Columbus Blue Jackets (33-22-15, 81 points), a 63.6% implied probability. However, using BetQL’s proprietary model, we simulated this series 10,000 times and are giving the Maple Leafs an 84.1% chance to win it. For reference, that probability converts to -529 odds in Toronto’s favor.
Stylistic Differences
Toronto is an offensive juggernaut. In fact, the over has hit in 56.7% of their games (the fourth-highest rate in the NHL) and they’ve scored a whopping 237 goals (the second-highest total), including 137 wrist-shot goals (2nd-most) and 24 slap-shot goals (9th).
Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets can’t pride themselves on their offensive production. Columbus’ 180 goals scored ranks 28th out of the NHL’s 31 squads, despite netting 49 snap-shot goals (most in the NHL). Further, 60.9% of their contests have finished under the total, the 2nd-highest rate in the league.
As you might imagine based on the over/under trends above, the Maple Leafs have struggled on the other side of the ice. They’ve surrendered 222 goals, the sixth-highest mark. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets have been stout defensively, allowing 183 goals (4th best).
Interestingly, the number of shots that the teams take is almost identical; Toronto posts 32.9 shots per contest (6th-most) and Columbus averages 32.5 (8th most). But the quality of shots that both teams attempt is quite different.
As noted above, Toronto makes a living peppering opposing goaltenders with wristers and slap shots and tend to play at breakneck speed while Columbus are snapshot artists who play at a more measured pace. The Blue Jackets have scored just 86 wrist-shot goals (third-fewest) and 12 slap-shot goals (second-fewest). The Leafs have also been successful on the power play, posting a 23.1% success rate (6th), while the Jackets have struggled badly in that regard, as indicated by their 16.4% mark (27th).
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Model Results
Simulating this series 10,000 times, we’re giving the Maple Leafs a 84.1% chance to win the series: a 25.33% chance they sweep in three games, a 32.83% chance they win in four games or 25.94% chance they win in five games. Therefore, our model is giving the Blue Jackets a 15.9% chance to win the series: a 3.31% chance they sweep in three games, a 5.01% chance they win in four games and a 7.58% chance they win in five games. At -175, bettors are getting a significant value in betting on the Leafs, even if wagering $100 to win $57.10 isn’t as exciting as it could be.
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